NHL Playoffs Round 1 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

looks like everyone did pretty well down the stretch.....NHL and NCAA's fattened my bankroll pretty nicely over the past 15 days......wanted to get some discussion going on these series. If anyone has an angle/trend/thoughts whatever on any series lets get some thoughts going:

EAST:

(1) BOS vs. (8) MON
(2) WAS vs. (7) NYR
(3) NJD vs. (6) CAR
(4) PIT vs. (5) PHI (way to choke away home ice in the 3P PHI...)

WEST:

(1) SAN vs. (8) ANA
(2) DET vs. (7) CBJ
(3) VAN vs. (6) STL
(4) CHI vs. (5) CAL


i haven't looked at a ton of stuff and i will chime in with some detailed stuff later but here are some initial thoughts:

I would be shocked if CAL beats CHI in this series. Wayy too many issues in so many areas for CAL. CHI is a solid hockey club and if Happy boulin plays the way he has the past 3 weeks or so, they will win that series in maybe 5 games.

I would also be shocked if the NYR moved past the first round. Special teams are just HORRIBLE (PP and road numbers). Only chance they have is if they can slow this series down and turn it into a binary code series (1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0) in which i think they have the better D and Goaltending. Plus i think last year WAS was just happy to be in the playoffs. This year i think they have some goals and getting past the first round is almost a must. NYR are a garbage hockey team as i've seen quite a bit of them over the past weeks.

PHI/PIT is going to be a war. PHI special teams are just sick and so is their defense and goaltending (but i different kind of sick...). If PIT can keep that to a 5 on 5 series they should win it. If it becomes a special teams series, PHI owns the advantage over PIT and it's pretty wide.

I also highly expect VAN to move past a STL team that may run out of gas at some point. VAN main problem is in their own zone and if they can clean that up i don't see STL having the firepower to match VAN. VAN also has a big advantage in the dot over STL and that will show up at some point in a close game I wouldn't be surprised.

UPSET SPECIALS:

ANA over SAN (West)
CAR over NJD (East)

don't like the way either SAN or NJD have been playing and i think both ANA and CAR are sneaky dangerous in the playoffs. both have LOTS of players who have cup experience. One interesting note is that SAN owns the better home and road PK over the ANA but ANAN has the better home and road PP. Something has to give there and whatever gives is going to be who wins that series. NJD haven't played well in a while and i think are ripe for the picking versus a CAR team that has had one of the hottest goalies in hockey over the past 6 weeks and been hot offensively too. They won't mach CAR point for point so if Brodeur is average CAR wins that series, IMO.

still looking at some other series.

[FlyersFan]

Eastern Conference
1 Boston Bruins (116 Pts)
vs
8 Montreal Canadiens (93 Pts)


Regular Season Series: Boston wins 5 - 1

Oct 15: at Montreal 4, Boston 3

Nov 13: at Boston 6, Montreal 1

Nov 22: Boston 3, at Montreal 2

Jan 13: at Boston 3, Montreal 1

Feb 1: Boston 3, at Montreal 1

Apr 9: at Boston 5, Montreal 4



2 Washington Capitals (108 Pts)

vs
7 New York Rangers (95 Pts)


Regular Season Series: Washington wins 3 - 1

Nov 8: at Washington 3, New York 1

Dec 23: Washington 5, at New York 4

Jan 3: at Washington 2, New York 1

Feb 11: at New York 5, Washington 4



3 New Jersey Devils (106 Pts)

vs.

6 Carolina Hurricanes (97 Pts)



Regular Season Series: Carolina wins 3 - 1

Jan 6: at Carolina 3, New Jersey 2

Mar 18: at Carolina 4, New Jersey 2

Mar 28: Carolina 2, at New Jersey 1

Apr 11: at New Jersey 3, Carolina 2




4 Pittsburgh Penguins (99 Pts)

vs
5 Philadelphia Flyers (99 Pts)


Regular Season Series: Pittsburgh wins 4 - 2

Oct 14: at Pittsburgh 3, Philadelphia 2

Nov 13: at Pittsburgh 5, Philadelphia 4

Dec 13: at Philadelphia 6, Pittsburgh 3

Jan 13: Pittsburgh 4, at Philadelphia 2

Feb 21: Pittsburgh 5, at Philadelphia 4

Mar 22: Philadelphia 3, at Pittsburgh 1

[FlyersFan]

Western Conference
1 San Jose Sharks (117 Pts)

vs
8 Anaheim Ducks (91 Pts)


Regular Season Series: San Jose wins 4 - 2

Oct 9: at San Jose 4, Anaheim 1

Oct 17: at Anaheim 4, San Jose 0

Dec 11: at San Jose 2, Anaheim 0

Mar 15: San Jose 1, at Anaheim 0

Apr 4: Anaheim 5, at San Jose 2

Apr 5: San Jose 3, at Anaheim 2



2 Detroit Red Wings (112 Pts)

vs
7 Columbus Blue Jackets (92 Pts)


Regular Season Series: Tied 3 - 3

Nov 28: at Detroit 5, Columbus 3

Jan 6: at Detroit 3, Columbus 0

Jan 27: at Columbus 3, Detroit 2

Feb 13: at Columbus 3, Detroit 2

Mar 7: Columbus 8, at Detroit 2

Mar 15: Detroit 4, at Columbus 0



3 Vancouver Canucks (100 Pts)

vs
6 St. Louis Blues (92 Pts)

Regular Season Series: Tied 2 - 2

Jan 9: St. Louis 6, at Vancouver 4

Feb 10: Vancouver 6, at St. Louis 4

Mar 19: at Vancouver 3, St. Louis 0

Mar 26: at St. Louis 4, Vancouver 2



4 Chicago Blackhawks (104 Pts)

vs
5 Calgary Flames (98 Pts)


Regular Season Series: Chicago wins 4 - 0

Nov 9: at Chicago 6, Calgary 1

Dec 19: Chicago 3, at Calgary 2

Jan 4: at Chicago 5, Calgary 2

Feb 5: Chicago 5, at Calgary 2

[FlyersFan]

also, need to dig it up but from memory, home ice meant nothing last year in the first round and i believe the road team actually may have just slightly been above .500. it was something like 25-23 in the first round. That means that there were a pretty good number of dogs who won first round games last year.

i think one series that is going to be home dominated is the DET/CBJ series at least for the first 5 games. I also look for the PHI/PIT series to be a pretty home dominated series.

CAR/NJD i think is one series that could see a lot of road wins. Same with the VAN/STL series, though, i do expect VAN in 6 in that series.

but just a word of caution that every year it seems that home ice really doesn't mean a whole lot except maybe game 7, but even that isn't a dominant stat trend.

[Daws1089]

good stuff Flyers. I played vancouver and chicago to win the west in february so I will be looking to hedge those if the opportunity presents itself. Do you think Vancouver will be like -300 to win the first rd matchup? Maybe -350? And would you pay that much?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Boston over Montreal
Bruins too deep for the Habs, who backed into the playoffs, and are banged up on the backend.

Wash over NYR
Too much scoring for the Caps...exactly what the Rangers lack. AO will not let this team lose in the 1st round.

Carolina over NJ
One team is red hot, one team is ice cold...how can you pick this series any other way?

Pittsburgh over Philly
Probably the best first round series....methinks the Pens big names get it done in 7...

San Jose over Anaheim
Probably will be a popular upset pick, but I think SJ wins one round this year...they are too deep for ANA, and have got their injured players back for the playoffs.

Columbus over Detroit
Yup...champs go down in round one, and it's all about goaltending. Hitchcock's return to the playoffs, and he will make a splash pulling off the huge upset.

Vancouver over STL
Nice story in STL, but I have Canucks going to the cup.

Chicago over Calgary
Flames hurting badly on the backend....the young Hawks will be too much for them.

[flmmkrz]

Wings got lucky that they drew the jackets, if they got the ducks I saw them as a first rd exit but they should beat up on the jackets. Masons very good but they dont have the firepower to handle the wings who just know how to turn it on when it counts

Ducks/SJ is going to be a great series. Wouldn't surprise me to see either team win this series.

Vancouver should blow out St Louis. I like the way the blues battled to get into the dance but they just can't play solid enough defense to keep Vancouver off the scoresheet while Van can slow them with their defensive corps and Lui.

The flamers look like they're in serious trouble with the injuries, form and the way Khabibulan looks right now.

In the east:

I can't see how the habs can hurt the Bruins with a banged up Schneider and Markov out. Even with them 100% I can't see the habs taking more than a game or 2.

Rangers/Caps I actually see this one going down to the wire. The caps are the better team but I think tending will bite them in the ass and while green can light it up their back end is unreliable. Home ice will be pivotal in this match up as I dont see either winning much away from it.

Jersey/Carolina - another one I see going either way. Based on form the canes should win this one and I really hate the make up of the jersey defense but Marty and a good blend of playoff vets and youth make jersey a tough out. Like with SJ/Anaheim I wouldn't be surprised to see either side come out of this match up.

Pitt/Philly - Ultimately it comes down to which team can keep the puck out of their net when it counts and thats pitt for me. Better back end from net out.

[flmmkrz]

is there any place you can parlay up series prices? Boston Vancouver combo should be close to even money and I rather pair them up then pay the chalk individually

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Here's Pinnacles series prices...

New York Rangers +236
Washington Capitals -256

Philadelphia Flyers +150
Pittsburgh Penguins -160

Carolina Hurricanes +126
New Jersey Devils -136

St. Louis Blues +236
Vancouver Canucks -256

Montreal Canadiens +293
Boston Bruins -323

Columbus Blue Jackets +529
Detroit Red Wings -579

Calgary Flames +144
Chicago Blackhawks -154

Anaheim Ducks +236
San Jose Sharks -256

[FlyersFan]

JML- im not buying into the CBJ over DET thing for one reason. This is CBJ's first trip the the playoffs and they have very little playoff experience on that roster in key areas. If you look at the comments WAS had last year after the first round i think you will hear the same from CBJ. WAS admitted that the playoff intensity and the whole playoff thing was more than they expected and they were not up to it in many spots (and had that feeling of glad to have made it). They said before this year that they had gone through their initial playoff welcome and this year they were more prepared for how to handle the grind of a 7 game series. I think the same thing will show up in CBJ/DET series. Just don't see a first time playoff entrant taking down DET, though, I am not a fan of DET right now at all. But that's just my 2 cents. I agreed with most everything else you had there.

flmrrz- the ONLY way that WAS/NYR series goes to the wire is if they get great goaltending like you said. The back end is the one area that the NYR have the advantage. But thier special teams is SO AWFUL and so are their forwards that I don't see how they can have enough offense to win that series. And im not sold lundqvist can win a bunch of 1-0 hockey games. WAS has too much offense to hold them down for a 7 game series.

without just tossing money out and hoping on dogs....the only dogs i think are worth a shot are CAR and PHI and why bet a series at such low odds when you can probably get most game odds even higher....im sure CAR will be +130's on the road in which case you'd be better off taking them as a road dog of more than the +125 or so.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...you're probably right...I mean, DET is a -600 fave to win the series...lol. They do have a deeper team, and way more experience, but when I see Mason vs Osgood, and Mason is getting +600...I am putting a unit on it every time.

Hey...I called the 1st round EDM upset of DET a few years ago... and that was probably a bigger upset.....maybe lighting can strike twice! lol.

GL

[FlyersFan]

yeah, i do remember your EDM call...

That team had guys like Pronger, Roloson, Smyth....guys who had been around a while and it also wasn't the Oilcan's first playoff trip. I liken this years Jackets to the Caps of last year. I do think that CBJ is capable of taking some games if Mason can stand on his head. But remember, it's his first playoffs too. And there is a lot of weight on a goalie in a 7 game series when the other team is better up front and in the back at least on paper.

[Daws1089]

not that anyone cares, but I played VAN -265 and CHI -155 to advance. I had to go with VAN since they weren't as steep of a fav as I thought. Seems like a more relaxing bet to just go with a series bet than to try to pick which games the teams will win. I'll just turn the games on enjoy and hope these two advance come the second round

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

not that anyone cares, but I played VAN -265 and CHI -155 to advance. I had to go with VAN since they weren't as steep of a fav as I thought. Seems like a more relaxing bet to just go with a series bet than to try to pick which games the teams will win. I'll just turn the games on enjoy and hope these two advance come the second round

....good luck...couple of good wagers IMO. I am going to look for road value in the first round for the most part.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

looks like everyone did pretty well down the stretch.....NHL and NCAA's fattened my bankroll pretty nicely over the past 15 days......wanted to get some discussion going on these series. If anyone has an angle/trend/thoughts whatever on any series lets get some thoughts going:

EAST:

(1) BOS vs. (8) MON
(2) WAS vs. (7) NYR
(3) NJD vs. (6) CAR
(4) PIT vs. (5) PHI (way to choke away home ice in the 3P PHI...)

WEST:

(1) SAN vs. (8) ANA
(2) DET vs. (7) CBJ
(3) VAN vs. (6) STL
(4) CHI vs. (5) CAL


i haven't looked at a ton of stuff and i will chime in with some detailed stuff later but here are some initial thoughts:

I would be shocked if CAL beats CHI in this series. Wayy too many issues in so many areas for CAL. CHI is a solid hockey club and if Happy boulin plays the way he has the past 3 weeks or so, they will win that series in maybe 5 games.

I would also be shocked if the NYR moved past the first round. Special teams are just HORRIBLE (PP and road numbers). Only chance they have is if they can slow this series down and turn it into a binary code series (1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0) in which i think they have the better D and Goaltending. Plus i think last year WAS was just happy to be in the playoffs. This year i think they have some goals and getting past the first round is almost a must. NYR are a garbage hockey team as i've seen quite a bit of them over the past weeks.

PHI/PIT is going to be a war. PHI special teams are just sick and so is their defense and goaltending (but i different kind of sick...). If PIT can keep that to a 5 on 5 series they should win it. If it becomes a special teams series, PHI owns the advantage over PIT and it's pretty wide.

I also highly expect VAN to move past a STL team that may run out of gas at some point. VAN main problem is in their own zone and if they can clean that up i don't see STL having the firepower to match VAN. VAN also has a big advantage in the dot over STL and that will show up at some point in a close game I wouldn't be surprised.

UPSET SPECIALS:

ANA over SAN (West)
CAR over NJD (East)
don't like the way either SAN or NJD have been playing and i think both ANA and CAR are sneaky dangerous in the playoffs. both have LOTS of players who have cup experience. One interesting note is that SAN owns the better home and road PK over the ANA but ANAN has the better home and road PP. Something has to give there and whatever gives is going to be who wins that series. NJD haven't played well in a while and i think are ripe for the picking versus a CAR team that has had one of the hottest goalies in hockey over the past 6 weeks and been hot offensively too. They won't mach CAR point for point so if Brodeur is average CAR wins that series, IMO.

still looking at some other series.

....i rule.....


still no mapleleaf EDM over DET prediction though....