Thursday Discussion Thread

[FlyersFan]

Wednesday thread produced some good thoughts.....

PHI is going to be my main and maybe only play today....sets up even nicer with the BOS win at home now playing b2b with travel and playing a rested and eager PHI team.....PHI 0-2-1 L3 after starting 3-0 and i think is a better team than they've played.....special teams may be the difference here and as always goaltending is a possible boner for PHI in this one.....

wanted to get some thoughts on the following 2 games....WAS@ATL (-140/+120) and SAN@TAM (-145/+125/O/U5.5)

I can't believe the lack of love for ATL from the oddsmaker. 4-1-1 on the year and back home to play their 2nd game of the year. I haven't been impressed with WAS at all and they played a bad game versus the Preds and you knew they would be good versus San Jose. ATL is not a bad hockey club dating back to the last 1/3 of last season. Anyone see any value in ATL tonight?

SAN has owned TAM and TAM is playing awful hockey right now. Kind of leaning Over in that one as SAN hasn't done a real good job of keeping the puck out of their net and TAM has been nothing short of awful defensively giving up 11 goals in their last 2 games.

thought an interesting play might be the OVER in the NYI/MON game. I know MON is awful offensively but NYI have coughed up at least 3 goals in all but 1 of their games and they can put the puck in the net as well. Most all of MON games are going under but you get the feeling one of these games they are going to put it all together. NYI playing b2b with travel and off of a big win (their first). MON Over3 might be a decent play too....


saw a lot of juice and a lot of dogs i didn't like.....

PHI is my main play, though, as i have posted...just trying to figure out if i like anything else.....

[gsad]

I won't be around tomorrow or Friday, going in for my treatments, so I'll post all my thoughts and what I think looks good, I doubt any will be plays but here goes,

First game is the Flyers, I really like their spot here and with the B's just getting by the Preds goes to show they are nowhere near where they were last year. Savard is their heart and soul and without him it's going to be tough to get that shot in the arm that he supplies when they need it. Bos doesn't have the speed needed to get by the Philly-D, the only worry I have is the in the Philly goal but I see a well rested Philly coming out strong early and putting this one away early. Tired legs for Boston should be going through the motions in the third period. If Boston pulls this one off, fade them in Ottawa next.

[gsad]

Next game that looks good to me is Detroit -135 in Phx, getting on the road is what this Detroit needs to gel right now, Phx has played pretty well this year but at 5-2 they won't be sneaking up on Detroit nor will they be cathing a tired team, the 5 days off for Phx will hurt them as they have been revelling in their good start, they will come out sluggish and lazy and it will hurt them vs a veteran club.

[gsad]

Maybe a live dog may be don't laugh now, the Preds +160 in Ottawa, they put out a good effort in Boston and might be overlooked by Ottawa and at that price they may be worth taking.

[gsad]

I don't know what it is with FF but I saw the same thing with the totals,

Atl/Wash over 6, besides in Montreal the Thrashers have been scoring, I hate the 6 but what can you do, I think a push is worst case here.

NJ/NYR over 5.5 Rangers playing an open style game and the Devils usually mimic their opponents, I see a back and forth game with at least a 3-2 after 2.

Last is Mtl/NYI over 5.5 Mtl hit some posts missed some empty nets, and pretty much stunk so far this year on the offensive , buut a date with the NYI can be just the thing to get them going, with Tavares in Montreal he should be excited and get at least a goal.

well I hope that helps and you all beat the books !

[gsad]

I just looked at the lines at my book and the Caps/Thrashers over 6 is juiced pretty heavy, telling me I'm on the right path but juice like that for a total is not worth it, rather play Philly to win.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by gsad

I won't be around tomorrow or Friday, going in for my treatments, so I'll post all my thoughts and what I think looks good, I doubt any will be plays but here goes,

First game is the Flyers, I really like their spot here and with the B's just getting by the Preds goes to show they are nowhere near where they were last year. Savard is their heart and soul and without him it's going to be tough to get that shot in the arm that he supplies when they need it. Bos doesn't have the speed needed to get by the Philly-D, the only worry I have is the in the Philly goal but I see a well rested Philly coming out strong early and putting this one away early. Tired legs for Boston should be going through the motions in the third period. If Boston pulls this one off, fade them in Ottawa next.

hope that's nothing serious gsad....and glad to see you concur on PHI....

Originally Posted by gsad

Next game that looks good to me is Detroit -135 in Phx, getting on the road is what this Detroit needs to gel right now, Phx has played pretty well this year but at 5-2 they won't be sneaking up on Detroit nor will they be cathing a tired team, the 5 days off for Phx will hurt them as they have been revelling in their good start, they will come out sluggish and lazy and it will hurt them vs a veteran club.

I am leary of the Wings right now because they just aren't playing good hockey right now. i considered that one and the wings do get daysuk back supposedly. but man is PHX stingy right now defensively and on special teams. it is kind of strange that they would be a -135 fav the way they've played. no value in that play but it may be the right side and their first road win.

Originally Posted by gsad

Maybe a live dog may be don't laugh now, the Preds +160 in Ottawa, they put out a good effort in Boston and might be overlooked by Ottawa and at that price they may be worth taking.

I considered NAS even on wednesday, but playing b2b with travel versus a rested OTT squad is not ideal. maybe worth a 1Unit play at those odds, though. another i will consider.

Originally Posted by gsad

I don't know what it is with FF but I saw the same thing with the totals,

Atl/Wash over 6, besides in Montreal the Thrashers have been scoring, I hate the 6 but what can you do, I think a push is worst case here.

NJ/NYR over 5.5 Rangers playing an open style game and the Devils usually mimic their opponents, I see a back and forth game with at least a 3-2 after 2.

Last is Mtl/NYI over 5.5 Mtl hit some posts missed some empty nets, and pretty much stunk so far this year on the offensive , buut a date with the NYI can be just the thing to get them going, with Tavares in Montreal he should be excited and get at least a goal.

well I hope that helps and you all beat the books !

WAS games have been going under believe it or not......no more than 5 goals in their last 5 games. they really haven't been playing well which is why i considered ATL as a play. i did like the MTL Over which goes completely against the trends for MON, possibly a better play is MTL Over3

good thoughts and thanks for sharing them....

[gsad]

I know the Caps played 4 straight unders after 3 straigt overs but lookl who they went under with, DET,NJ,Nash more defensive style than offense and DET had injuries, the Sharks game was a miracle that it went under I saw that game the Sharks were snakebit, the Thrashers are more offense than D but like I said if the juice is too high, not worth it.

[gsad]

The Wings line -130 on the road vs a hot team tells me someone knows something, I mean shouldnt a .500 team that is winless on the road going to face a hot Phx team that have shut-out the Pens and Sharks no less be favored here? I think that Phx inability to score 5 on 5 will hurt them here, Det takes very few penalties and that is what has been saving Phx so far this year. They beat the Pens with 2 pp goals. Take away the game vs the Kings and empty net goals Phx scored 6 of 11 goals on the pp in their 6 other games, that means they scored on average .83 goals/game 5-5, minus the LA game where they got 6 one on the pp. In the long run and versus veteran clubs that won't get it done.

[jwile20vt]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

Wednesday thread produced some good thoughts.....

PHI is going to be my main and maybe only play today....sets up even nicer with the BOS win at home now playing b2b with travel and playing a rested and eager PHI team.....PHI 0-2-1 L3 after starting 3-0 and i think is a better team than they've played.....special teams may be the difference here and as always goaltending is a possible boner for PHI in this one.....

wanted to get some thoughts on the following 2 games....WAS@ATL (-140/+120) and SAN@TAM (-145/+125/O/U5.5)

I can't believe the lack of love for ATL from the oddsmaker. 4-1-1 on the year and back home to play their 2nd game of the year. I haven't been impressed with WAS at all and they played a bad game versus the Preds and you knew they would be good versus San Jose. ATL is not a bad hockey club dating back to the last 1/3 of last season. Anyone see any value in ATL tonight?

SAN has owned TAM and TAM is playing awful hockey right now. Kind of leaning Over in that one as SAN hasn't done a real good job of keeping the puck out of their net and TAM has been nothing short of awful defensively giving up 11 goals in their last 2 games.

thought an interesting play might be the OVER in the NYI/MON game. I know MON is awful offensively but NYI have coughed up at least 3 goals in all but 1 of their games and they can put the puck in the net as well. Most all of MON games are going under but you get the feeling one of these games they are going to put it all together. NYI playing b2b with travel and off of a big win (their first). MON Over3 might be a decent play too....


saw a lot of juice and a lot of dogs i didn't like.....

PHI is my main play, though, as i have posted...just trying to figure out if i like anything else.....

Being a BOS fan / season ticket guy Its hard for me to say this but I like the Flyers play , Right now we (Boston) are trying to figure out what to do with Savard injured and Lucic

I may just take the O/U outa shame betting against my own :)... GL bro all the way, GREAT plays

[flmmkrz]

great stuff ff and gsad.

My initial thoughts for tomorrow:

Habs/Isles - idk how you can lay any chalk on the habs at all, even with the isles off a game last night it'd be isles or nothing for me. Habs aren't a good team and the isles don't give up on any games. I can see why one would play the over in this one but i dont love it personally, I dont like the habs ability to create offense so it puts a lot of pressure on the isles to generate and the habs despite a couple blowouts after losing key pieces on the backend play Martins structured style decently enough. Could go over but it'd take both teams playing uncharacteristic hockey to do it imo.

Jersey/Rangers - Rangers play a stinker with the back up in and come back with Lundqvist at home vs rival Devils and its pretty cheap to play it too. Im waiting to see what the oil line comes out at to compare prices here but right now can't say I have a lean either way. Haven't seen the devils enough this year.

Philly - love philly in this one and locked it in. Bruin fade plan in full effect and i'll keep doubling if I need too but the B's can't keep winning with the team as is. Flyers well rested hopefully they get their legs in gear early and we dont gotta chase this one.

Washington/Atlanta - Both Russian snipers should be geeked for this match up as Kovy must finally feel like he has a team that can help him and Ovie always likes to show he's the top dog. I think there's some value in Atlanta dont know about enough, I dont like that its the first game back off a roadie for the thrash but the AO show should have em skating dont love the layoff for the caps either. Will prolly sit it out as its a coin flip to me, but im hoping the thrash pull it out cause then i'll for sure be riding the caps in their next game to bounce back and fading the thrash to let down vs the sharkies. So lets hope it plays out like that.

Sens -190 wow, they've been a surprise team for me this year and the preds played tonight and no Arnott but, no thank you either way. If the sens were Bruins banged up I could at least entertain the thought as is no freakin way.

Sharkies/Bolts - like I mentioned above, hoping the thrash pull out a big win vs the caps so I can take these sharks to knock em off when they play so im kinda hoping the bolts can knock the sharks off here too but good luck. Bolts haven't lost in reg at home and Vinny Ice and St Louis back together maybe they get some magic going. How do you not take the sharks on a small price vs the bolts tho, way too tempting but the line flat out reeks. Caps and Wings open at roughly the same price and both playing substantially better clubs, so why do the sharks get one of the worst teams in the league at the same price?

Phx/Det - this is a tough game to figure out, I think the line makes sense, perception is Detroits underachieving due to injury and just an overall slow start but they can turn it on when they want to. Thats the perception. Nobodys also completely buying into the dogs transformation into a top team. So where we would've seen -160+ last year seeing a -130 is major respect and seems like a fair line given form and standings. I don't know if Datsyuk walks back in and changes everything so im not dyin to lay chalk at the same time not enough value for me to ride the desert dogs either. Sittin that one out.

one locked and loaded

Philly

otherwise nothing else I feel like I like enough to jump on yet. Waiting on a couple lines and goalie info could change some into plays.

[Jcb890]

Right now I really like:

Sharks -1/2 (1st period) for +155

NYR vs. NJD OVER 5.5

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Jcb890

Right now I really like:

Sharks -1/2 (1st period) for +155

NYR vs. NJD OVER 5.5

SAN has been a terrible first period team and hasnt' scored the first goal in any game this season. those trends are usually good ones to go against so the SAN 1P is a risky but maybe solid play if you know what im getting at.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

great stuff ff and gsad.

My initial thoughts for tomorrow:

Habs/Isles - idk how you can lay any chalk on the habs at all, even with the isles off a game last night it'd be isles or nothing for me. Habs aren't a good team and the isles don't give up on any games. I can see why one would play the over in this one but i dont love it personally, I dont like the habs ability to create offense so it puts a lot of pressure on the isles to generate and the habs despite a couple blowouts after losing key pieces on the backend play Martins structured style decently enough. Could go over but it'd take both teams playing uncharacteristic hockey to do it imo.
.

NYI have allowed 3+ goals in every game but 1, which is why i was considering it. on the flip side MON has played a whole bunchof unders so something has to give tonight one way or the other.

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

NYI have allowed 3+ goals in every game but 1, which is why i was considering it. on the flip side MON has played a whole bunchof unders so something has to give tonight one way or the other.

fair enough but they played pitt, boston,buffalo,sj and carolina in those 3+ games, all those teams can light the lamp on the regular, most teams would give up 3 to them, I just think it has more to do to the strength of those teams than it does to the isles weaknesses on d and in net. Im prolly wrong god know my totals capping has never been my strength just gave my take. What did you think of the Philly Bruins over I played?