Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (1pt unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Chris DiMarco +100 @ Sportingbet and Boyle Sports [1.5pts] LOST by 1
DiMarco has played the Palmer Course at PGA West twice in the last four years, shooting 74 each time; no such course problems for Allenby with 69-70 over that period

Lucas Glover to beat Heath Slocum +110 @ ToteSport LOST by 1
Rounds of 67-65 around La Quinta compare favourably against Slocum's 72-71-72-68 over the last 4 years and the windy conditions should work in Glover's favour as well

Daniel Chopra to beat Rod Pampling -107 @ Pinnacle LOST by 2
With rounds of 70-75 in the last four years around the Palmer Course at PGA West, Pampling looks another player to oppose on this course; Glover's four rounds have all been 70 or less

Mark Hensby to beat Rod Pampling +150 @ VCbet and BlueSq [0.5pts] WON by 2
Will also oppose Pampling with Hensby whose record around the Palmer Course may not be as good as that of Chopra, but he is a significantly better player in windier conditions

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (1pt):

Joe Ogilvie to beat Stephen Leaney -120 @ Five Dimes
Both have played the Palmer Course at PGA West in each of the last four years, Ogilvie averaging 68.00 and Leaney 72.25 and Ogilvie beating Leaney around that course by at least 3 shots every time

Daniel Chopra to beat Robert Allenby -125 @ Carib
A couple of 67s around the Classic Course for Chopra provides hope of a recovery today and Allenby is a player who rarely does recover well in round 2 from such a lowly leaderboard position

Nathan Green to beat Robert Allenby -115 @ Pinnacle
Will also oppose Allenby with Green who is in 23rd position, so is much more positive heading into today and beat Allenby by two shots on their debuts on the Classic Course last year

Mike Weir to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Pinnacle
Both players have played La Quinta in each of the last four years, but Weir averages 2.75 shots lower around this course

Eric Axley to beat Lee Janzen -115 @ Five Dimes
Janzen has been in a similar position only once in the last couple of years - he was 3rd after the opening round of the 2007 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - he shot 81 in the 2nd round en route to missing the cut!

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (1pt)

Antony Kim to beat Todd Hamilton -155 @ Pinnacle and Carib
Short odds, but Hamilton was in a similar position after two rounds on three occasions and last year and shot 80-77-77 in the third round

Tommy Gainey to beat Ryan Moore +195 @ Unibet
Moore deserves to be favourite, but not to this degree (e.g. he ranks 31st in greens in regulation this week, whereas Moore is 102nd)

Troy Matteson to beat Chad Campbell +115 @ Five Dimes
Both well outside the cut line as Matteson was two years ago. On that occasion he shot 65 in the third round and ended in 24th place. No reason to expect he is less likely to bounce back today - he outranks Campbell in drving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation so far

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (1pt)

Tim Herron to beat Joe Durant +140 @ Five Dimes
Herron has no chance of making the cut, but that doesn't mean that he won't try today. When in a similar position after round 1 of a normal event, he has shot 70 or better in 8 of his last 9 events. He is widely available at +125 but with ties lose, so the value is with Five Dimes

Nick Flanagan to beat Fred Couples +125 @ Ladbrokes
Five Dimes are right to price Flanagan -145 in this matchup, so I'll gladly take a chance on ties losing with this price on the far better player

Dean Wilson to beat Rich Beem +105 @ The Greek
Another case of backing the better player with odds-against even though there is a loss with a tie

Yong-Eun Yang to beat Dustin Johnson -125 @ Five Dimes
Could be a test of character for Johnson after looking so promising, but then recording five bogeys in six holes at the end of his round yesterday; Yang looks as though he belongs on this Tour

[Stanley]

Round 5 plays (1pt)

Lucas Glover to beat Chad Campbell -110 @ Carib
Both players only just made the cut, but they differ in how they respond when in a similar postion in the final round. Over the last 3 years, Glover has averaged 69.67 in the final round (including 66 from a similar position in this event in 2006); Campbell has averaged 72.44 and failed to beat 72 in any of his last eight attempts

Charley Hoffman to beat Ryan Moore -110 @ Carib
Siding with the better player who will be extra motivated to finish well being the defending champion

D.J. Trahan to beat Robert Gamez +100 @ Pinnacle
Gamez did win the 2005 Texas Open from this position, but hadn't broken 70 when in 2nd/3rd position with one round to play since 1997; Trahan's final round scores when in this position read 65-74-69-66

Scott McCarron to beat Michael Letzig +105 @ Five Dimes
Will gladly take these odds on the Sacramento native. This is his first PGA Tour appearance for 19 months, so I can't see any letdown in terms of effort even though he is well down the leaderboard