The Masters

[CuseFan10]

Tiger is 1/1? I'm curious if people think that's a good play or a ridiculous play? Should be an interesting discussion. Any other golfer at any other course, it's complete insanity, but here with Tiger it's almost hard not to play it. I personally think I'll be on it but not sure yet.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

LOL...I actually think there's some value in that...he's really been talking about the chance for the Grand Slam this year, and with the way he's played so far this year, and his success at Augusta...I think he gets it done. There really aren't too many of his top rivals playing supurb golf so far this year either?

[navy_blue99]

I'll take 1/1 odds. I think last year the tough conditions got him, but this year it's supposed to a little softer and much warmer at Augusta. Last year they were pulling out the ski caps, but not this year. Other values I like:

Retief Goosen: 30/1: The Goose's record at the Masters is pretty remarkable. Since 2002, he's gone 2nd, 11th, 10th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd. If there's anyone due for a green jacket, it's this guy and he's starting to play better of late.

Aaron Baddeley 65/1: This guy can get hot with the putter. He can get a bit erratic with the driver, but the Masters rough really penalize you that much. And he can dominate the par-5s. If I were to put money on one guy with more than 50-1 odds, I'd take this guy.

Vijay Singh 20/1: Don't usually bet on Singh because of his putter, but he seems to be on his game this year. PLayed well 2 weeks ago and has a green jacket. For 20/1, I think it's good value.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It sure does seem insane to be taking one golfer against the field at even odds. But, in all reality, it probably isn't all that bad of a value...just crazy to be saying that. I'm more interested to see what the odds for the US Open will be....Tiger has won at Torrey Pines like 6 times in a row or something like that...I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't -110 or something like that in the US Open...especially if he fares well in the Masters.

I'm sure I'll be placing a wager on Ogilvy at 25/1. IMHO, if you can get Ogilvy over 20/1, you are getting value. I personally think the guy is the closest player to Tiger on the tour right now. He has the game...sometimes he loses composure...but anytime you can hit long irons like Ogilvy, you are good value at over 20/1 in a Major. Ogilvy's wife gave birth in January and he started slowly this year...but he's come along nicely in the last month or so. The guy has the ability to stare down Tiger. His up and down on the 72nd hole at Winged Foot was stone cold titties. Further, he didn't seem to flinch earlier in the year at the WGC when Tiger was lurking on the final day on the 1st page of the leaderboard. I will add a little caveat here...Ogilvy is my favorite golfer. That tends to happen when I got him at 75/1 the year he won the US Open at Winged Foot. I was probably the only person in America rooting for Phil to choke...nice of him to comply. Having said that, like I said earlier, I do truly believe Ogilvy is one of the top 5 golfers on tour right now.

May just take Tiger and Ogilvy this year and let the chips fall where they may.

GL!!

[CuseFan10]

I think because it's at Torrey Pines where he dominates Tiger could be like 1/2 at the US Open. I think I'd still bet him if he were 1/2 here this week.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

I think because it's at Torrey Pines where he dominates Tiger could be like 1/2 at the US Open. I think I'd still bet him if he were 1/2 here this week.

Really? Wow...you are a better capper than me, but I just couldn't justify 1 to 2 against the entire field. At that point, I would put some smaller wagers on some large payouts and see if I can get lucky (kind of like I did with Ogilvy at 75/1 at Winged Foot). I LOVE betting golf...just haven't looked yet with hoops and all. I will probably be taking a close look at the Majors and some of the bigger tourneys this year. I'll have to take a closer look at the Masters later this week...right now, my book has Tiger at -135 and Ogilvy at 16/1...fuck that. May have to put some cash in an account where I can catch Ogilvy at 25/1. Still probably wouldn't take Tiger at 1 to 2...but at the same time, I can't say its a bad bet. Hell, Tiger said this year he feels that with the courses, this is his best shot at a Grand Slam. Funny....he says that and nobody says a word. Shows you just how dominate he is.

[CuseFan10]

Just the Tiger bet for now. He's only 1/100 to make the cut!!!!

4 UNITS
Tiger Woods to WIN the Masters @ 6/5



Might post some match-ups too, but don't want to get cute with this. There's more value in Tiger winning wire to wire, but he sometimes plays unspectacular on Thursdays so I layed off that angle. This way he has all four days to do his damage and I'm happy with the 6/5. I see absolutely no value in betting anyone else to be totally honest. The chances of anyone else winning aren't that great IMHO, and the chances of any of us picking out that guy who slays the dragon is far less likely. Ogilvy is the sexy pick, but those kind of plays never win (no offense to anyone who likes him, as he's also one of my favorites). If I had to play a couple guys I think I'd take some combo of Harrington @ 25/1, Rose @ 35/1, Stricker @ 50/1, Stenson @ 60/1, and Immelman @ 100/1.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Man, I haven't watched Sportscenter or the Golf Channel yet this week...is Ogilvy the trendy pick? Crap. You're right...the sexy picks never win.

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel

Man, I haven't watched Sportscenter or the Golf Channel yet this week...is Ogilvy the trendy pick? Crap. You're right...the sexy picks never win.

Sportscenter talks about sports? When?

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

If I had to play a couple guys I think I'd take some combo of Harrington @ 25/1, Rose @ 35/1, Stricker @ 50/1, Stenson @ 60/1, and Immelman @ 100/1.

I am going to be very ill if Immelman wins this tournament.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I like Immelman, but I don't think you'll have to worry about being ill this weekend. He has played two wonderful rounds, but now that its the weekend, his butthole is going to pucker and with the windy conditions, I don't think he'll be able to handle the pressure of being the leader through Sunday.

If he does it, it would be pretty amazing. I wouldn't mind him winning at all (except the result of you being ill..lol), but something tells me he won't be able to finish this thing off.

We'll see. GL. You can get him at 6/1 right now to win...lol.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

It's Mickelson's to lose, IMO. He's in perfect position to get his 3rd Green Jacket methinks...


I'm rooting for Weir to get his second though!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

wow...Immelman looking good...

Tiger lurking...

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

It's Mickelson's to lose, IMO. He's in perfect position to get his 3rd Green Jacket methinks...

Nice call dude, stick to hockey, hahaha

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

wow...Immelman looking good...

Tiger lurking...

People keep saying this, "Tiger is lurking". Tiger is not lurking. He's 5 shots back at the Masters with 18 holes left. That's not "lurking". If Immelman shoots a 74 (which he probably won't because his swing off the tee looks as pure as anyone could ever dream right now), Tiger still needs to shoot a 68 just to beat him. Tiger is done with regard to winning the tournament, IMHO... He is playing the par 5's like I would (in my dreams) for whatever reason, and for his career he's OVER par on the rest of the holes combined. Not to mention, Tiger has never won a major after trailing after 54 holes. He's a front running bully. He's the best ever at it, but that's what he is (in majors at least).

Immelman will not give it up to Tiger. Maybe Snedecker, Casey (who left a ton of opportunities on the course and coul've shot a really low number), or Flesch can clip him if he stumbles but Tiger has no chance of winning IMHO, and is not "lurking".

This happens to me without fail. Three years ago, Federer won like 71 matches in a row and then I randomly bet on him in a semifinal and he lost. I'll never forget it. I'm not saying betting Tiger this week was smart, but every time I play a strong, strong fave like this it doesn't win. You'd think I'd learn??? Haha...

AND WORSE, I LISTED THE FUCKER WHO'S GOING TO POSSIBLY WIN AT 100 TO 1, AND DIDN'T BET HIM.