JoePa's Valero Texas Open

[joepa66]

VALERO TEXAS OPEN

Hope to keep the ball rolling from the last two weeks......

STEVEN AMES 7/2 TO FINISH TOP 5 - Ames needs to collect himself after last week's ride on the bogey train. After finishing the first two rounds at The Players at -3 you see just as many bogeys and double bogeys on his card as you do birdies over the last two days to finish at +2. He's played well here in the past with two TOP 10s in five starts and finished T6th in 2008 posting a very respectable -13. I still like Ames as one of those "sure bet" finishers as he stands 38th overall in career pga earnings.

DANIEL CHOPRA 7/1 TO FINISH TOP 5 - Chopra finished in a T3rd at the Valero in 2007 and T14th last week at The Players. He struggled early in the season but threatened the course record at TPC Sawgrass last week in the second round and wound-up tying for 14th. He's a long shot maker and is ranked 49th in driving distance, 9th in eagles, owns a 4.71 par 5 average, and his average "going for it shot distance" is 255.7 yards. It's just a matter of time before he breaks out. I checked out his approach stat shots and he is very good at the shot game as well.

CHRIS STROUD 12/1 TO FINISH TOP 5 - Stroud is one of those quiet guys on tour and doesn't stand out! In the Fedex standings he currently ranks 100th. He played golf at Lamar University. HOWEVER, he finished a quiet T6th at the Valero in both 2008 and 2007. AND, he's a perfect two for two in Top 10s finishes at the Valero. ALSO, he has made the cuts in 8 of 12 starts on the year with one Top10 a T6th at the AT&T, and has one Top15 with a 14th place finish at the Bob Hope. He's played in less than half the total events he played in during the 2008 season (29), his scoring average is lower and his earnings ($373,567) are already approaching his total from all of last season ($482,405). His numbers are not gawdy by any stretch, he's ranked 56th in driving distance, 61st in GIR, but he is ranked 5th in eagles......AND, he's ranked 55th overall on tour in combined stats from the following eight categories: driving distance, driving accuracy, GIR, putting, eagles, birdie average, scoring average, and sand save percentage.


A small $20 play on Dean Wilson 8/1 TO FINISH TOP 5 who has four Top10s in 5 starts at the Valero missing the Top10 last year in a T44th but finished T6th in 2007, T2nd in 2006, 7th in 2005, and T3rd in 2004. He's missed the cut in the last three events he's started in.....Zurich, Wachovia, and The Players....despite finishing T13th at the Verizon, T17th at the Northern Trust, T19th at The Buick, and having a scoring average of 71.08 which is right near the tour average, and ranking 16th in putts per round and 11th in putting average at 1.72. A return to familiar surroundings may pull his game back together.