JoePa's JOHN DEERE CLASSIC

[joepa66]

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC

There's the obvious, Kenny Perry and Lucas Glover, but their odds are not in your favor if you decide to wager on them! So again this week, I am looking at the best of the rest and considering course form (how they've played here in the past) along with recent form (how they've played over the last several weeks! TPC Deere Run is a 7,257-yard, par-71 where players go low, with the last 11 winners finishing between 16 and 22 under. There will be certifiable birdie opportunities on almost every hole. Last year 12 of the holes had more birdies than bogeys for the week. The par-5 second and par-5 17th both had more birdies and eagles than they did pars!


DAVID TOMS 14/1 TO WIN OUTRIGHT - Toms first start at Deere Run since 2005 when he finished 40th but he does have 2 Top10s in 9 starts here. His recent form makes him a player who is definitely on the "short list" this week with a T2nd in 2 of his last 3 tour starts. He has 7 Top10s in 16 events on the year, is 1st in driving accuracy, 6th in GIR, 10th in putts per GIR, and 2nd in scoring average. He is listed at 11/8 to finish in the Top10 and 14/5 to finish in the Top5.

MATT BETTENCOURT 11/2 TO FINISH IN THE TOP 10 - Bettencourt's first time at the Deere and he's made the cut in his last 5 starts on the season. He posted 3 Top15 finishes in that stretch and in his last 20 rounds of golf, 16 of those rounds were under par. He's converted over 30% of his birdie opportunities in 2009, made 11/20 cuts with 2 Top10s and 4 Top25s. He T11th last week at the AT&T, T5th at the Memorial, T10th at the US Open and T22nd at Quail Hollow. He ranks 30th in par 5 performance with an average of 4.67 and is -67 on the season.

DJ TRAHAN 7/1 TO FINISH IN THE TOP 10 - Trahan comes to the Deere ranked 9th in GIR, 24th in par breaker percentage and 7th in par 5 birdie or better percentage. He T14th at the Travelers his last start this year, and at the Deere has recorded 13 rounds of par or better in 14 rounds, and earned a T10th in 2005. He is also ranked 5th in par 5 performance with a 4.58 average or -85 for the year. He has finished 6th on the PGA TOUR 2 times in 2009, and ranks 64th in Money Leaders on the PGA TOUR.

KEVIN SUTHERLAND 5/1 TO FINISH IN THE TOP 10 - Sutherland has 3 Top10s in 8 starts at the Deere with an 8th place showing in 2008 and 6th in 2007. I'm wagering more on course form here as he has one lone Top10 on the season with a T9th at the Crowne Plaza. He finished T23rd at The Memorial, was T33rd at the US Open. He's got some distance ranked 24th in par 5 average at -68 or 4.68, and is 8th in long approaches from 275+ yards. He's a 50/1 shot to win but even I won't go there with him!