TEE EM UP

[BUNK MORELAND]

I don't understand how Mickelson is the favorite here. If you watched him last week i think you would agree. I think the best value is ERNIE ELS @ 20-1 .. I think their is good value in a handful of players this week, but i'm sticking with the experience. Riviera is tough course, you need to be long and tactical.

To win the tourney
Ernie Els - 1 unit


First Round Matchups
Steve Stricker +125 over Phil Mickelson

Vijah Singh +105 over Davis Love 3

Robert Allenby +135 over Phil Mickelson

risk 1 unit on each of the above

GOOD VALUE in these dogs in the first round IMO

[FlyersFan]

i'm sure he's the favorite because he is the 2 time defending champion and is from socal and has played that course a million times with success. some courses and times of the year just suit guys better than others. not to mention he is probably the last guy on tour that i put any weight on in terms of how he played last week. he seems to go from great to awful and awful to great in a minute's time. i don't know who else you would make the favorite if not him odds wise honestly.

GL with your wagers.....

[FlyersFan]

also, i mentioned this to JoePa last year....

much like NASCAR it's pretty much tossing a dart to try and pick the winner of a tournament. But i think there is a lot more value in betting guys to finish say top 3, top 5, top 10. You get a guy on a course he is good at and though a top5 or top10 bet doesn't pay as much, it probably pays a lot more often. I would much rather have Ernie Els this week if that is who i liked (not saying i do, just using your guy as an example) at say 5-1 on a top10 than i would at 20-1 on a shot in the dark. some of these guys are lights out consistent but winning an event takes some luck as well as skill.

just my 2 cents....i know joepa had a lot more success last year when he switched to betting top 5's and 10's than the old pick the winner.

[BUNK MORELAND]

He was so inconsistent last week it was funny at times.

He is using a driver with 6 degrees of loft. He can't hit a fairway to save his life.

He scrambled well last weekend but that's about it ..

This is only his second tourney of the year .. I wouldn't place a dime on him at 10-1 let alone 4.5-1...

I made that mistake last week. Won't make it again ..

He could win, but i watched him for four rounds last week and the inconsistency, the body language, the frustration he showed has me guessing his game right now.

I think he's the favorite for the simple fact that he's the most notable name. Alot of people don't know who Steve Stricker is , they don't know Robert Allenby, or Michael Sim.....

[BUNK MORELAND]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

also, i mentioned this to JoePa last year....

much like NASCAR it's pretty much tossing a dart to try and pick the winner of a tournament. But i think there is a lot more value in betting guys to finish say top 3, top 5, top 10. You get a guy on a course he is good at and though a top5 or top10 bet doesn't pay as much, it probably pays a lot more often. I would much rather have Ernie Els this week if that is who i liked (not saying i do, just using your guy as an example) at say 5-1 on a top10 than i would at 20-1 on a shot in the dark. some of these guys are lights out consistent but winning an event takes some luck as well as skill.

just my 2 cents....i know joepa had a lot more success last year when he switched to betting top 5's and 10's than the old pick the winner.

Right now my book doesn't offer TOP 5's or TOP 3's but i'm gonna shop around for a book who does. This year the payouts for picking the winner of an event has been great. The Bob Hope Classic favorite was 15-1....

It's very low risk and very high reward for picking a winner ..

[BUNK MORELAND]

angel cabrera -115 over dustin johnson risk 1 unit
steve stricker -165 over anthony kim risk 1.65 to win 1 unit