Travelers Championship

[Stanley]

Kevin's persistence has finally paid off and I've joined the forum

I wasn't sure about posting my PGA Tour stuff this year because I try to snag the early value on Mondays and that means the odds are typically with the Euro books, which have all now closed their doors to American customers. And I made a loss on my picks last year as well

So, hopefully what I post on Mondays will be of some use even if most people can't get the odds.

However, because (largely for time purposes) I now concentrate on posting bets for outright (i.e. tournament winner) markets I will copy and paste the matchup plays that my guys at Tour-Tips publish. That way, there should be plenty written for each PGA Tour event and I can get the kudos if my guys post winners and I can blame them if they lose

Here's my picks from earlier this evening ...


Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Stewart Cink to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Boyle Sports [6 places]
A quick look at the last three years shows that the winner of the event immediately following the U.S. Open had been 57th (2006), mc (2005) and mc (2004) in the U.S. Open. The strain of being in contention for your home Open, particularly as it is the most difficult test in golf, should be an impediment to winning the following week. If that repeats itself this year, these selections should have a very good chance. Cink missed the cut last week, but his form had been good enough to earn him three top-5 finishes in his previous five starts. And now he returns to a course on which, not only did he finish in the top-5 last year, but he was also a winner in 1997 and runner-up the following year. With Mickelson now withdrawn from this event, he is the only one of the leading players to have been rested at the weekend and that should greatly improve his chances of victory this week.

Kenny Perry to win 50/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Perry didn't play last week and so should be even better prepared for this event ... and he certainly is physically, having lost 20 pounds in the last six months. Now, with a new belly putter and a swing tip that transformed his game at the Memorial (he finished 3rd, having been 41st at the cut), he looks a potential winner again. Given this week's schedule placing after the U.S. Open and his past achievements of six top-10 finishes on this course (including three in the last five years), his chances of victory are much better than 50/1.

Woody Austin to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
It was disappointing to see the selection, David Toms, fail to win the St Jude Championship two weeks ago, but Austin was in awesome form in the final round. He shot 62 that day to cantor to a five-shot victory. After that performance, described by his caddy as "the most impressive round of golf I've ever seen, I've never seen anybody in my life hit it like that", his missed cut last week is to be expected and is surely a blessing in disguise for this event. He will really feel that he has a good chance of winning here having played like that and especially after his performances on this course in the last three years: 1st, 9th and 5th. By any combination of current and course form, he has to be value at these odds.


BTW "e.w." means "each-way". A 1pt each-way bet is a combined bet that places 0.5pts on the player to win at the quoted odds and 0.5pts on the player to finish in the top-five (or six if stated) at 1/4 the win odds. I get asked that question many times each season ;)

[dananderson32]

welcome back stanley and gl on the golf this week

[Kevin]

Predictem.com is a better place with you here Stanley.

We'll take whatever we can get from ya as many of us are lost without you win, lose or draw.

Thanks for everything man. You are a staple at this place.

[joepa66]

LORD STANLEY......

Welcome Back......and I look forward to your insight. I also echo Kevin's sentiments!

[Meestermike]

Glad to have you have you back Stanley. I was ready to hunt you down and paste this in one of your threads elsewhere where you post... .

I am glad you found our new home and with your expertise, Predictem's value just increased 100 %.

[Stanley]

Matchup bets:


Stake 3pts Stewart Cink to beat Padraig Harrington -112 @ Pinnacle
Cink has been the more consistent player this season and holds a nice lead of 7-3 in h2h's over the last 12 months against Harrington. This justifies Cink as favourite and the recent dip in Harrington's form makes Cink betting material. But the clincher is Cink's decent course form where he has numerous top-10 finishes as opposed to Harrington who is making his course debut this week.

Stake 3pts Tom Lehman to beat Joe Durant -105 @ TheGreek
Lehman holds a 5-1 lead over Durant this season and there is little to suggest that Durant can easily turn the tables this week. Durant's current form is still quite poor and erratic and in his previous starts here he has one decent finish back in 2003 but his other finishes were less inspiring. It is a bit of a worry that Lehman has not played this course more regularly but if he pus in one of his regular showings he should take this.

Stake 3pts David Toms to beat Justin Rose -110 @ Pinnacle & Carib
Not much to separate them on current and previous course form but in my eyes Toms is the better overall player and deserves favouritism here. Also there has to be concerns over Roses mental state after his disappointing closing round on Sunday and also his physical state. He has played infrequently of late due to various injuries including to his back. This will be the first time in a while that he has played back-to-back tournaments which adds to the value on Toms here.

[fitter]

Stanley, thanks for coming over to the new site...have heard a lot about you and your insightful info. You are very respected here by the "old timers". Thanks...your time is appreciated.

[Stanley]

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00pts
Cink 75th
Perry 15th
Austin 43rd

Matchups: 2-1; +2.64pts
Cink lost to Harrington by 7
Lehamn beat Durant (mc)
Toms beat Rose by 1