John Deere Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Pat Perez to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
There is a possibility that Perez may withdrawn from this event as his 3rd place finish last week was enough to earn him a trip to Carnoustie courtesy of being the highest-placed player not already qualified for the British Open. But if he does elect to stay in this field, he should see a very good opportunity to further improve his current 44th place position in the FedEx Cup Standings. His 3rd place finish last week was just a continuation of his previous form that had netted him a 4th place at Colonial and a 5th place position with one round to play in the Travelers Championship. And in terms of his course form, he has one top-5 finish in four appearances (2002) and just 2 of 13 rounds over 70. So he may withdraw and prepare for the British Open, but he is likely to win far more money if he stays in the U.S. for another week.

Bernhard Langer to win 50/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler, BetFred and BetDirect
Langer will not be playing at Carnoustie next week, but he is another whose game would probably be better served by remaining on the PGA Tour courses rather than trying to master the hardest course on the Open rotation. He has shown that with two runners-up finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts and he even reached a playoff at Colonial. He does not have Perez's course experience, but considering that he finished in the top-10 in his only previous visit (2003), this course should not pose him too may problems in his current form.

D.J. Trahan to win 100/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BlueSq and BetFred
More of a leap of faith with Trahan. He has not achieved the top-3 finishes of Perez and Langer in recent weeks, but he does have good course experience and he is just a warm putter away from shooting some extremely low scores. For even though he finished 30th last week, he ranked 4th in driving distance, 8th in driving accuracy, 2nd in greens in regulation and 3rd in scrambling. It really will not take a great deal to turn such all-round excellence in his game into a victory and at these odds, it is worth a speculative punt.

[joepa66]

GL this week Stanley....Pat Perez and Bernhard have both been solid!

[Stanley]

Reasons to follow...

Matchup bets:


Stake 3pts Heath Slocum to beat Woody Austin -110 @ Carib
Austin has a recent victory and second-place to his name but easily put in a missed cut on recent evidence. Slocum has played well recently and although he missed the cut in his last two starts they were on courses that really don't suit Slocum's game which revolves around accuracy, an asset on this course. In his previous starts here he followed a couple of missed cuts with decent finishes of 13th and 3th place finishes. From seven previous starts Austin has a decent finish of 8th in 2001 but poor finishes on all other occasions. Given a 10-5 h2h lead this season and 6-3 in the last 3 months it is surprising to see Austin as favourite here.

Stake 3pts Bob Tway to beat Kirk Triplett -124 @ Pinnacle
Tway has shown good consistency of late making the last five cuts. Triplett from fifteen starts this season has managed to make the cut on only five occasions. Triplett used to perform well here with previous 2nd and 3rd place finishes but his last four attempts have resulted in poor finishes. Tway also has poor form here which may be attributed to his lack of accuracy off the tee. But in recent starts this has been less of a concern and in two of his recent starts he was n the top10 for driving accuracy. This is likely to be matchup over by Friday and Tway is by far the more likely to be playing at the weekend.

[Stanley]

Further Matchup bets:

Stake 3pts Tim Clark to beat Lucas Glover +100 @ The Greek
Surprising to see Clark playing here given his record at Loch Lomond but he has a decent chance of going close here this week. Both players have shown decent form this season but favour has to go with Clark who this season holds a 7-1 h2h lead over Glover. Glover looks as if his game is coming together nicely with recent finishes of 10th and 12th but he has done this on a number of accasions recently only to lack the consistency to retain that form for extended periods of time. Although this is Clarks debut on the course it is clearly suited to his accurate style of play while Glover from three starts has finished no better then 32nd.

Stake 3pts Craig Kanada to beat J.P. Hayes -105 @ The Greek
Hayes is a bit of course specialist with a second place last time out and a victory in 2002. But in his three other starts here he missed the cut twice and finished 55th. And given that he has missed the cut in his last three starts on the tour, a poor finish is more likely on the cards this time around. Kananda has certainly had no easy season, this being his 21st start of the season, but his decent form continues with a 12th place finish last time out. He is far more accurate than Hayes and with a h2h lead of 8-4 this season it looks to be Hayes's previous form that is allowing this price to remain.

[Stanley]

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00pts
Perez mc
Langer 32nd
Trahan 32nd

Matchups: 2-2; -0.87pts
Slocum beat Austin by 7
Tway (mc) beaten by Triplett
Clark beat Glover by 5
Kanada (mc) beaten by Hayes

ytd
Outrights: 1-11; -10.00pts
Matchups: 8-4; +7.57pts