PGA Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Jim Furyk to win 22/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, BetFred and Boyle Sports [6 places]
Withdrew from the Bridgestone Invitational last Thursday morning due a tightening of his back, but he has said that his back has improved under treatment and the hope is that it will not be a factor this week. He withdrew from the Barclays Classic last season after injuring his back in a skins game, but the week's rest did him good the following week as he finished 2nd in the U.S. Open to Geoff Ogilvy. A repeat would be profitable. Indeed, it is strange to see so many of the leading players competing the week before a Major and on such a tough course setup. That can only work to Furyk's advantage if fit. The final factor, apart from his form which reads five top-5 finishes in his last seven starts including a win last time out, is the Colonial factor ... that course was re-designed by Perry Maxwell in the 1940s and he also built Southern Hills. A strong link between high finishes at Southern Hills and high recent finishes at Colonial has been established elsewhere (bettingzone.co.uk) and Furyk fits that angle very nicely having been a playoff loser at Colonial in May.

K.J. Choi to win 35/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]
One of the hottest players on the PGA Tour having won two of his previous three starts before the British Open where he finished 8th, having been in contention throughout, and he then continued that good form last week at Firestone where he finished 11th. Little wonder that his price has been falling quickly this week and while 40/1 is still available, there should be better value in these lower odds, but better place terms at Paddy Power. Notable in his recent form has been a big improvement in his driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats. On this short course with penal Bermuda rough, that ability to keep the ball on the short grass should be very important and places a greater emphasis on the iron play (rather than the power play on many newer PGA Tour course), in which Furyk and Choi are some of the better exponents. He has finished 6th and 7th in two of the last three years in this event (as well as top-25 at Colonial in each of the last three years) and should threaten to post another leaderboard finish on this course.

Will add more plays later.

[joepa66]

Hey now....those will be two of the four players I'll be backing this week! BOL to ya Stanley! Or should I say US!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Good luck, Stanley. I was intrigued by the Colonial/Southern Hills parallels. In your opinion, would that warrant a look at Kenny Perry as well? He's had pretty good success at the Colonial and played pretty well last weekend until he fell apart on Sunday.

Thanks.

[Stanley]

The Colonial comparison has also been highlighted in the player interviews with Scott Verplank and Phil Mickelson today: ASAP Sports - Golf - 2007 - PGA CHAMPIONSHIP - August 7 - Scott Verplank and ASAP Sports - Golf - 2007 - PGA CHAMPIONSHIP - August 7 - Phil Mickelson.

Perry is definitely on my list ... just waiting on a few more lines before deciding on which market would be most suitable as I don't fancy him to win this week, just finish high up the leaderboard.

[Stanley]

Matchup bets:


Stake 3pts Zach Johnson to beat Angel Cabrera -115 @ Carib
Johnson is expected to put in another solid showing this week. His game is based on accuracy and should be suited to this course and his form is also holding together very well. Cabrera's game is more focussed on length and his form has slightly dipped since his US Open victory. In h2h's this season Johnson holds a commanding lead of 6-1-1, Cabrera's US Open victory being the only time he has succeeded against Johnson.

Stake 3pts Tim Clark to beat Scott Verplank -115 @ Carib
Clark is a strong fancy of mine to perform well this week so he was always going to be involved in some matchup. A lot of the value in the other available matchups has gone but there's enough value here for a play. Both players have the game for this course although preference is for Clark's accurate iron play and both players are in fine form.
In previous h2h's it is close but most of Verplank's victories have come through a poor showing from Clark. Some people might see Verplank's local knowledge of the course as an advantage but invariably this increases pressure on the player so again preference must go to Clark.

Stake 2pts Ernie Els to beat Tiger Woods +340 @ Pinnacle
It's one of those tournaments where there is probably enough doubts surrounding Woods to try and find a value play against him. He doesn't have a great record on this course and with the proliference of dog-legs on the course there is going to be more reliance on iron play than driving. And this is could be of great value to Els whose accuracy of the tee still leaves a lot to be desired of late. Yet despite that he regularly finds himself highly ranked in GIR stats (6 top tens in his last eight starts). So at this very big price Els demands respect.

Stake 4pts Steve Stricker to beat Henrik Stenson -125 @ Pinnacle
Stricker remains in great form being in the final groups in both the US Open and The Open Championship with a second at the AT&T National in between. He also has course form here being 3rd in the 1996 Tour Championship. Meanwhile Stenson has shown precious little since returning to the game after the birth of his daughter and his game is not showing the necessary accuracy to confidently expect a decent showing this week

[Stanley]

Further Matchup bet:


Stake 4pts Justin Leonard to beat Colin Montgomerie -103 @ Pinnacle
Since his victory in Ireland Montgomerie's form has disappeared again and coupled with a quite horrible record in this event the signs aren't good for Monty. Leonard is beginning to show a bit of consistency of late and put in a good performance to finish 9th in a competitive field last week. He also has a 6th place finish here in 1996's Tour Championship.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Originally Posted by Stanley

Further Matchup bet:


Stake 4pts Justin Leonard to beat Colin Montgomerie -103 @ Pinnacle

Win or lose, that is one smart pick, Stanley. The chunky Scotsman is going to melt in heat this week....wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't even make the cut. That oppressive heat can really take it right out of you if you're not used to it. His age and shape (even though he has lost a lot of weight) are no match for the Texan Leonard in Tulsa.

Hope I can find that matchup....I'm all over it.

[Beef]

First of off I am new to the forum and I hope I can learn alot from you guys.

Here are my plays as of right now. I usually do not have this many plays, but we shall see.

Anthony Kim 125/1 (Played at OU, playing really well, Up there in all the stats)
Lucas Glover 100/1 (Name keeps popping up, good value)
Davis Love III 100/1 (Always got to pick the sharp dressed man, playing well)
Zach Johnson 60/1 (Course playing short, putting key....sounds like Masters)
Scott Verplank 55/1 (From Oklahoma, been in the hunt)
Hunter Manham 45/1 (For the 3rd straight week with me, played at OSU)
Padraig Harrington 28/1 (Lots of people love this play, riding their coat tails.)

I am also tossing around Justin Rose and David Toms.

I am thinking of dumping my whole account on the Justin Leonard vs. Colin Montgomerie matchup. Everyone feel the same?

[Stanley]

Originally Posted by Beef

I am thinking of dumping my whole account on the Justin Leonard vs. Colin Montgomerie matchup. Everyone feel the same?

If I was to label one as the 'banker play', it would be Stricker over Stenson