JoePa's PGA Championship Picks

[joepa66]

No LPGA or European Tour this week, so I'm gonna throw in a couple of extra PGA picks just as I did for The 136th Open Championship. Here we go:

KJ Choi - 40 / 1 - One thing that any golf fan can tell you is that Choi is one of if not the most improved player on the PGA Tour this season. His driving distance and accuracy, as well as GIR and putting percentages have greatly improved. Choi's swing is one of controlled tempo and has vaulted him to 5th in the FedEx Cup Standings, and status as one of the hottest players on tour. He's made 17/20 cuts, won 2x, has 6 Top 10s and 14 Top 25s. He's won twice in his last four starts, getting first in The Memorial and the AT&T, finished 8th at the 136th Open Championship, and tied for 11th last week at the WGC Bridgestone. Last year he finished T7th @ -10 in the PGA Championship, and he has 2 Top 10s in 6 PGA Championship starts. He is ranked 7th on tour in scoring with an average of 69.62 and is 9th in sand saves.

SERGIO GARCIA - 25 / 1 - He's the lone player in the FedEx Top 10 without a victory this season --- he's ranked 10th. He heads a long list of first-timers seeking to win a major into the PGA Championship this week, and has come the closest to winning of any of them when he finished 2nd at Carnoustie when he failed to convert an 8 foot putt on the 18th green and eventually lost in the four-hole playoff to Padraig Harrington. Las week, the lingering after-affects, a sort of hangover if you will, left him T20th @ +6 in the WGC Bridgestone. His other best finish in a major was a 2nd in the 1999 PGA Championship. Still, with a stroke average of 69.60, 5 top 10s and 9 Top 25s in 14 events he is winless. Sergio is playing great golf, and thanks to his new belly putter he's become even more deadly with increased range on the greens. Like him or not, and I don't, he's still a major contender and a threat to win at any moment.

JIM FURYK - 22 / 1 - Furyk also qualifies for the moniker of the "tour's hottest player". He has 5 Top 5s in his last 7 starts with one of those being a win at the Canadian Open, a tournament I couldn't back him in (vacation) after picking him several weeks in a row to break out, and wouldn't ya know it, he burst through. He's 3rd in the FedEx standings, has finished in the Top 10 4 times in the PGA Championship, is 8th in GIR, and sports a very tidy 74.97% driving accuracy rating. He withdrew from the WGC Bridgestone last week due to an ailing back while everyone else duked it out in Akron. He should be the freshest pastry out of the box this week, and a win would be a great confection atop a season layered with near misses.

TIGER WOODS - 9 / 4 - This is all about picking the winner. There have only been 2 times in the Woods era since 1999, that Tiger hasn't won a major (2003 & 2004). He's played so "badly" this year that he's made 12/12 cuts on tour, has 4 wins, 2 second place finishes, 8 Top 10s, and 11 Top 25s. And, he only 2nd in GIR on tour. In his last four starts, he T2nd at the US Open, T6th @ the AT&T, T12th at The Open Championship, and won going away Tigeresquely on the course he owns at the WGC Bridgestone in Akron. This week could be shades of Tiger at the Old Course in St. Andrews. The way the course sets up, I hardly expect him to pull out his sometimes flailing driver and stick to his 3 wood and 2 iron off the tee. And you know what happened in workman-like fashion at St. Andrews! If his swing is tight, he could take another step toward catching Jack on the major victories list.

I love backing longshots and was having trouble identifying one this week, but two seem to stand out after looking at the entrants list.....GEOFF OGILVY and MIKE WEIR. OGILVY is 50/1 with 2 Top 10s in 4 PGA Championship starts, both in his last two tries -- a 9th @ -9 in 2006 and T6th @ -1 in 2005. He's 21st in the FedEx Cup Standings, has made 14/17 cuts this season, has 4 Top 10s, 1 second, 1 third, and 9 Top 25s. WEIR meanwhile is 100/1 and has 3 Top 10s in 8 PGA Championship tries and finished 6th last season @ -11. He's made 16/18 cuts this year, has 2 Top 10s, 7 Top 252s, and if ever there was a player who needs a major victory it's Weir. He's 84th in the FedEx race and his chances to make the Top 30 are waning. Some have pressured him as a favorite in The Open and US Open this season but a new swing takes time to hone, and he's fared well in his last couple outings and says he feels comfortable and is committed to his new swing. One-half unit on both!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Good luck, JoePa...like the picks.

I watched Live From the PGA Championship last night and the more I watched, the more I felt like Tiger is going to be extremely tough to beat this week. He is striking the ball well, he is confident, he doesn't want to go another year without a major championship, and like you said, he stated in an interview yesterday that you won't see much of the driver this weekend. The rough at Southern Hills isn't bad at all, which means if Tiger is hitting 3 wood and 2 iron off the tee and can keep it in the fairway or first cut of rough, he is going to be in good shape. I also have to believe the heat can only help Tiger, as he is one of, if not the most well conditioned athlete on the tour.

Along with your picks, I kind of like Justin Rose at 25/1...he is playing some very solid golf this year. But I'm not sure how the heat will affect him. Long shot guys I'm eyeing are OHern at 100/1 and Weekely at 100/1.

Best of luck, JoePa!!

[joepa66]

Thanks Nigel......I really see that Tiger IS the man to beat this week. He's on the prowl especially after last week! I also considered what shaped these guys are in with the heat, and figured that the heat might help Furyk stay loose.

Love both of your long shots and also looked at Boo since he's a southern guy and used to the heat and humidity.....let's hopefully make some dough once again this weekend. GL on yer picks!

[joepa66]

PGA Championship Final Results:

TIGER WOODS 9/4 - WINNER 272

Kj Choi 40/1 - T12 - 282
Geoff Ogilvy 50/1 - T6 - 280
Jim Furyk - Cut
Mike Weir - Cut
Sergio Garcia - Dq