Tour Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Adam Scott to win 16/1 e.w. @ Sunderlands [5 places]
I rarely like to back a defending champion, but there really is not a lot of value in this week's odds and 16s on Scott appears to best of this with, especially with the extra place on offer with Sunderlands. Not only did he win from the front last year after the taking the lead in the 2nd round, he has averaged 67.1 over his last seven rounds at East Lake and he shot all four rounds under 70 last week, including 67-65 over the weekend, to finish 4th. Without the added pressure of playing for the $10 million to the FedEx Champion, he can certainly win this event again.

Jim Furyk to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Furyk (8th) and Verplank (19th) are also too far back in the FedEx Cup standings to win the biggest payout in professional sports and that can only help their cause in terms of winning this event. For Furyk, there were enough encouraging signs last week - all four rounds of 70 or less and finishing 14th - that his game is returning after his injury layoff and if he is approaching his previous form, he should be a strong contender on a course where his finishes read 3rd, 18th, 13th and 2nd (last year).

Scott Verplank to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sunderlands [5 places]
I can't see Verplank winning this event, but 50/1 each-way with 5 places translates into a better chance of a return than the best odds of 10/1 in the top-4 place market. There is no top-5 place market this week and best odds of 2/1 for a top-10 finish are hardly enticing. He may not have been at his best in the playoffs so far (finishes of 30th and 35th), but he had finished in the top-10 in his previous six starts on American soil and his record around East Lake is excellent: 5th, 14th, 7th and 3rd in his four previous visits. The greens are not particularly good this week, but Dave Shedloski (pgatour.com) has pointed out that he won at Las Colinas in May on the worst greens seen on Tour this year, so maybe he could win this week. I still doubt it, but a top-5 finish in a 30-man field is a strong possibility.