PrimeTime World Cup Thread

[PrimeTime]

Chile v. Honduras 6/15

The Under has certainly been the way to play the early group stage matches. The Under is 12-1-1 so far! I think this trend takes a pause tomorrow with some high powered offenses getting going in the early match.

Chile has had a great qualifying run, racking up lots of goals and finishing only behind Brazil in CONMEBOL. Honduras was lucky to qualify automatically after a late-game header for the US vs. Costa Rica. Honduras has also looked so-so in friendlies leading up to the World Cup. Chile plays a unique 3-4-3 attack-focused formation and they have several players who are experienced in the European Premier Leagues. On the other hand, Honduras has a handful of players with European experience, but most are relatively inexperienced on the big stage.

In these early group matches you always have to consider motivations of each squad. Chile feels they have a real shot to qualify for this group and will be out to snatch the three points. I feel that Chile will come out and open up the offense and attack, trying to get the result. Honduras is happy to just be at the World Cup and won't push hard for the result.

I see Chile grabbing a quick goal early and Honduras then pressing to level, where Chile will grab another 1-2 goals when the midfield opens up.

My play:
OVER 1.5 goals Risk 1.5 Units to win .5 Units
OVER 2.5 goals Risk 1.5 Units to win 2.1 Units

[akatdrake]

Welcome to the forum, and best of luck :)

[PrimeTime]

Tough result to swallow in the Chile v. Honduras match. Chile kept the pressure on and should have at least netted a 2nd goal. This World Cup has been very frustrating to watch and gamble on so far. The Under is clearly the way to play these Group Stage matches, with teams content to just sit back with 8 or 9 men in their defending half and frustrate the attacking team. I will probably be riding the Under until a match where squads have to press for 3 points - so long as I can find value in the Over play. I will be scaling back the size of my bets until I can get a better feel for the matches.

My play is on Spain Moneyline win (-450) Risk 4.5 Units to win 1 Unit. Hope I'm not chasing here after the beating I took on Honduras v. Chile.....

Word Cup Results:
0-2 (-3 Units) OUCH

[PrimeTime]

Spain chokes!

Lesson learned. Don't chase after you've taken a couple of hard losses. Should have known better than to take that play with no value.....Spain came out with no urgency.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

You don't need a better feel for the matches.

Every single thing that has come from you, as been spot on, and accurate. Even translated o nthe field.. unfortunately not on the score sheet.

This cup in general has just been strange. Especially the last couple days.

[akatdrake]

Yeah, chasing has been no good. I'm going to ride some unders for a bit as well. Best of luck to you!

[PrimeTime]

Gonna give this one a shot to try and turn around my luck. I'm off work and will be watching the morning matches. Looking forward to the nice matchups tomorrow!

Germany v. Serbia

Going into the World Cup I thought Serbia might actually have a shot to win this group. Both Zigic and Pantelic up top are more than capable. The midfield is deep with a lot of top European league experience. Vidic from Man Utd. and Ivanovic from Chelsea are stellar defenders also. Serbia essentially self-destructed against Ghana, who only won the match due to an errant handball in the box by Kuzmanovic.

Germany absolutely outclassed Australia 4-0, and impressed me in the process. But here's the thing. In a tournament dominated by UNDER after UNDER so far, I feel like notice was taken of that impressive Germany win and they may be a little overvalued. After their shock loss to Ghana, Serbia will be scrambling to snatch points in this match to ensure that they still have a shot to qualify. While Serbia would love to take 3 points, a draw is not catastrophic. Really the only strong play in the match is Serbia +1 (-120). I would take a shot at Serbia outright for +500, I like the risk reward, but I will stick with safer plays until I can grab a few wins.

Serbia (+1) (-120) Risk 2 Units to Win 1.67 Units.

BEST OF LUCK!

[PrimeTime]

Unbelievable amount of yellow cards.

This is another aspect that is making the World Cup so frustrating to gamble on. The referees have been wildly inconsistent and the flow of play is constantly interrupted. That along with the fact that the ball is clearly hard to control in the air for the players is making for some odd results. Unless I am supremely confident I will keep my bets low (1-2) units until I can get my edge back.

Serbia snatches a goal! Very unfortunate Red Card to Klose. World Cup should be about great players like Klose, not the referees. This is great for our result Serbia +1. Also, if Germany is not able to come back and grab one point in this match then this could have huge ramifications for their next match against Ghana. Klose will be gone for that match.

[PrimeTime]

Tough match to cap. There is obviously huge public action on the USA, which distorts the lines somewhat. Not a lot of value to be found.

Slovenia will obviously pack in and play a grinding, defensive-minded match. After snatching 3 points from Algeria they will be happy to settle for a draw. The USA will be forced into an offensive posture. A draw is not a disaster, as they can still take 3 points from Algeria and have a hope of qualifying.

I'm not sold on the US ability to create chances. They held nice possession against England, but besides the Green fumble they didn't really create many good chances. Will things be different against Slovenia? They should be, but with Slovenia likely to clog the box with 8-9 defenders, I don't think the US has the creativity to put up crooked numbers on the scoresheet.

USA Pick (-240) Risk 3 Units to win 1.25 Units
Under 2.5 goals (-200) Risk 2 Units to win 1 Unit