This one is a tough one, that's why I haven't been talking about it...but I made up my mind earlier today.
This is a 12 round fight, and the O/U is set at 9.5 and even though the Under is favored (-150) I am leaning a bit towards the Over (+120). Vargas has been KO'd by people who with speed. DLH, Mosley (twice), and Trinindad. 3 of those 4 KO's he has had came AFTER 9.5 Mayorga doesnt have speed nor precision, he would literally have to catch Vargas on a major screw up to KO him. So Mayorga KO'ing Vargas under 9.5 is off the list in my book, in regards of what is likely to happen.
Mayorga has been KO'd twice (3 times if you count his first fight in 1993, which I am not). Those were both by people with speed and prcision (DLH & Trinidad) which I cant give Vargas the speed factor, but wont go so far as downgrading him on precision.
I think all the hype and hatred is causing everyone to bite the Under, but thats just my opinion. If anyone gets KO'd it will be Vargas, but that's only if he slips up.
Mayorga definately cannot outbox Vargas so Mayorga by decision is a little ludicrous in my mind, unless he gets 2 knockdowns.
I like Vargas, and if he does KO Mayorga it will be late. No way he does this early, no way in hell. If the KO comes it will be rounds 8 through 11, if it comes at all.
They are both warriors so I dont see anyone quiting on their stool. Both Righties so head clashes aren't as likely (than an orthodox and a southpaw), so we are fairly clear with cut stoppages on head butts.
This is in Vargas's backyard too, LA CA. About a 40 mile drive from Oxnard (Vargas home town).
I rolling with Vargas/Over, but I wont be too shocked if he does KO him in 8 or 9. Vargas is a paced fighter so it will have to be an accumulation of punches, he doesnt have the power to one shot KO Mayorga (which Mayorgas KO's have come by accumulation).
So thats me, Vargas/Over 9.5
Probably a parlay, not sure yet...but more than likely.
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