Cotto vs Paquiao

[V3r1f13d]

First off a quick vent. I have always hated "mega-fights" like this. These 2 people have no business being in the ring together...other than "business" itself. I'm a throwback fan and have always believed in fighting your mandatory and defending your belt. This Saturday, every one is a boxing fan all of a sudden. Great. Moving on...

I don't really want to touch on the obvious which people talk about left and right. Manny is stepping up and is faster. This is Cotto's division and he's strong. Cotto is "damaged" by Margarito. I was there on July 26th, he fights the same as he did before. Did he get smarter? Of course. People think he is tentative. Etc. etc. This is common sense.

Here is what we are talking about. A great boxer in Manny, but an even greater trainer in Roach. He brought him from the island and gave him a right hand. Miguel, an Olympic silver medalist who destroyed the person who beat him (M Abdullaev). Both have impressive resumes, but I give the edge to Cotto. Cotto beat great fighters who are still top notch in the game. Manny beat people who retired months after. Oh and for the record JMM beat Manny twice.

Currently Manny is almost a 3-1 fave and Cotto at 2.5 to 1. My book has it at -280 and +230

I am backing Cotto. It's a gamble, don't get me wrong. A fairly risky one at that since they already went ahead and are trying to lock the location for Manny/PBF. Dallas has dibs on it right now.

Here is what Cotto needs to do.
First he needs to nullify the speed. He did it with Judah and Mosley. A good jab beats speed. He needs to keep him at bay. Manny is an outside fighter, who gets lost on the inside. Manny either covers or tries to fight his way out. You need side movement or you need to bang on the inside with the guy. Manny covers and Cotto will bang the body so bad that Manny will be weak in the knees. Manny tries to fight his way out and he will get countered till tomorrow. Cotto needs to cut the ring down and turn this into a phone booth match. Manny will get murdered on the inside. I'm telling you right now and you will see it Saturday night. Pac wants no business touching elbows. Standard blue print game plan. Easier said that done though.

Both have great camps. Manny has Roach and brought in Castillo which is not a sparring partner. The guy is a legitimate Class B opponent. Cotto has one of the best nutritionists and strength/conditioning coaches in the game. Manny has the edge on the trainer. Cotto has a better cut man. Camp edge can tip either way, but to me having a solid nutrition and making sure you gain and drop properly is a huge asset.

Just going to give my disclaimer and say that this is not a fan bet. I respect both fighters. This is a calculated risk on my behalf that will hopefully pay out.

Weigh in's later. Money has been hitting Manny since the lines came out. I think it will continue to do so. If you see a sharp hit on Cotto towards closing, you better believe it.

Cotto - 2 to pay whatever it's at about 2 hours before the fight.

I'd feel horrible if anyone followed my play and lost. This is not a case of 2 men in the rign. Cotto is fighting up hill in my opinion, but has all of the assets to destory Manny if executed properly. If it hits exactly how I said it (jabs keeping him at bay and killing him on the inside), I demand Boxing Moderator Status! I think I've deserved it by now :)

[V3r1f13d]

I got it at +250 earlier today, highest it's ever been.
Placed 2 For 5.
Money is coming on Cotto now, knocking it down to +230.
I wouldnt be that surpirsed if it closed at +200 or +210.

[Q-Unit]

GL bro

i agree with your sentiments. Pacquiao has shown the ability to move up in weight class, but how much is too much?

if Cotto executes his "plan" as you laid out, he should be OK, but like you said easier said than done as Pacquiao has the speed and endurance to dance around the ring yet he's so accurate he could wear out Cotto?

its setting up to be a good fight BOL!

[V3r1f13d]

Manny isn't human. Cotto used the jab perfectly and murdered him on the inside. I did not expect Manny to take those shots, and he did! I mean what can you do when your assault isn't even phasing the guy? I knew he had a jaw, but that was unreal.

[The Mailman]

I loved Cotto going into this fight.

Manny is something else.

I am salivating to see him and Mayweather in the ring together.

Manny can flat out take a beating. His head must be made of stone. Cotto put some shots on him that knocked his head up, back, to the side etc. He was completely unphased and even laughed as he walked to his corner.

Insane!