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Handicapping

Dell Technologies Championship Predictions

Event: Dell Technologies Championship
When: September 1-4, 2017
Where: TPC Boston Ė Norton, MA
TV: The Golf Channel/NBC
by: Evergreen of Predictem.com

We still have roughly a month of summer left if you go by the calendar but Iíve always thought fall started the day after Labor Day and that makes the Dell Technologies Championship the last PGA Tour event of the summer. The Dell, formerly the Deutsche Bank Championship, uses a Friday start to finish up on Labor Day and should really be viewed as the winter as far as the Tour is concerned as there are just two weeks before East Lake and winter is coming for thirty players by the end of play this week. Just the top-70 in FedEx Points will tee it up for the next playoff event so every shot is going to have high stakes attached to it. We go to a fantastic duel with Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth at the Northern Trust and we could see a similar scenario as many of the top pros are swinging it so well right now. Rory McIlroy will defend his 2016 crown and will look to become a three time champion here. He and Vijay Singh are the only players to have won multiple championships since the events debut in 2003. This is the time of year for the big boys and the Dell has treated them well with only Olin Browne representing the journeyman as a former champ. Tiger, Phil, Adam Scott and Steve Stricker are the kind of names you are more likely to see come out on top.

TPC Boston has been the only home of the Dell with and the Arnold Palmer original design has already been slightly modified to enhance the natural elements of the northeast region. The 7,300 yard layout plays at par-71 and has gained a reputation of giving up very low rounds. The course record of 61 has been shot multiple times and Rory was able to blitz the field on Sunday last year to erase a six shot deficit on the way to his win. We could see another late charge or we could see a lot of jockeying up and down by players that get out fast only to find themselves back in the pack perhaps just a round later. Personally, I like the kind of course that allows a player to rescue themselves after a poor start and Boston has that. It can also test the leaderís mental game as there isnít such a thing as a safe lead and that usually makes for an exciting finish with the big names making their charges. There really isnít anyone in this field who simply canít win but stay with the names that you know. The big name players ramp it up at the Majors and the WGC events but also during the playoffs. They arenít prepping for a future event or shaking the rust off after a break. They are here to win, to win the playoff overall and that motivation is tough to beat when coupled with immense talent.

Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight who we think are the best bets. We make some picks to win and break down a couple of head-to-head matches that you can find at Bovada Sportsbook (50% bonus up to $250 FREE and your credit card will work there!) . Here are our picks to win the 2017 Dell Technologies Championship.

Rory McIlroy (16 to 1 odds to win)

With DJ at 7 to 1 and Spieth at 8 to 1, Rory is getting really good value, especially as the defending champ looking for a third title at TPC Boston. McIlroy has been banged up with rib issues but even at say, 85%, I still like his talent. He is still the 4th ranked player in the world with over 20 wins across the globe so 16 to 1 is a fantastic potential return on investment. In eleven made cuts this season, Rory has been inside the top-7 on six occasions and he enters the week as the top ranked player in off the tee metrics. He is 2nd in tee to green performance and 3rd in scoring average so the bases are covered in terms of key stats. He is probably no better than average in terms of putting judged against this field but McIlroy has earned those putting stats on very tough greens that are tailored for Major competition. His putter is plenty good enough to win this week.

Charley Hoffman (40 to 1)

Hoffman is the 2010 champ of this event and his latest run of good play has moved him to 22nd in the OWGR. He enters the week 9th in playoff points and is a real darkhorse threat to win the Cup if he can notch a win on the way out. He used a Sunday 62 to win the 2010 Deutsche Bank and his 22-under total is a good sign he can hang in a shootout at TPC Boston. He has not missed a cut since April and there really hasnít been a letdown week along the way, including a solid T17 last week. He leads the Tour in total birdies on the year and is top-13 in both tee box performance and birdies per round. He is a bit more mistake prone that the very top of the Tour and he will need a better week around the greens than usual to save those key strokes. He could have a plus week with the irons and avoid those scrambling chances all together as well. Either scenario should have him as a relevant player come Sunday.

Bubba Watson (75 to 1)

A needed bit of full disclosure here is that this pick is more of a gut play than I normally like to make. In looking down the board for a deep value play, I saw Bubbaís name and he was the last player I could find that I felt could win against this field based on previous career record. Watson is a nine time winner on Tour and a multiple Major Champion so that speaks for itself. His prodigious length off the tee makes him a potential force at any course provided he isnít overly wild. Bubba tied for 10th last week and notched a T6 at the Memorial against a deep field. Watson is not currently in his vintage form, hence the long odds, but I think he can breakout and find that dominant level again. His focus appears a bit sharper now that it is crunch time and making sure he finds his way to the Tour Championship should spur him to his best month on Tour this season.

Head-to-Head Matches

Picks to win based on predicted score after all four rounds. Check with 5Dimes Sportsbook for the best array of single round matches and a the best variety of prop bets.

Brooks Koepka v. Patrick Reed (pick to win: Reed)

It is absolutely probable that Brooks is still cruising after his U.S. Open win and that could weigh heavily into this matchup in Boston. Reed should be the more motivated player as he is currently outside the East Lake cut line and needs a good finish to sneak those few spots up the points list. He did well with a T20 last week and would have won this hypothetical pairing as Koepka was 49th. I think Reed continues a strong run that includes a T2 at the PGA Championship and he can keep ahead of Koepka this week by using his statistical advantage with the putter. Reed is also the better recovery player and should be able to stay ahead by saving an extra shot or two over the week. Brooks has the higher ceiling between the two but also the lower floor in most weeks and I think his trend is just a bit below Reedís at the moment.

Paul Casey v. Justin Thomas (pick to win: Casey)

In a tournament where I have acknowledged that big names have a good track record, you would think that the big names would be the picks but Iím going against the grain here. Casey very nearly won this event last year but couldnít manage more than a final round 73 while Rory charged and overtook him. In his last five starts, Casey has been T5 on three occasions with 11th and 13th places finishes in the others so he is hot and looking to stay that way. Thomas is the owner of four PGA wins this season, including the PGA Championship but he lags behind Casey in greens hit in regulation and is the lesser scrambler as well. It should be a very close match as it was last week with Casey 5th and Thomas 6th but I think Casey can get the better end of it again as the slightly more polished product.

Free Picks

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