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Handicapping

Wells Fargo Championship Predictions

Wells Fargo Championship Picks and Betting Odds to Win
When: May 4-7, 2017
Where: Eagle Point GC- Wilmington, NC
TV: The Golf Channel/CBS
by Evergreen, PGA Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com

I have to admit that watching the doubles competition last week at the Zurich was a nice change of pace from the same-old, same-old of the Tour season but we are back to independent contracting this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow has been the home of the Wells Fargo but that course is prepping for a PGA Championship this summer so the hosting duties fall to Eagle Point. It will be the first PGA action held at the Wilmington area private course and early views are drawing comparisons to the scenes around Augusta so this course should be a well-received one year replacement. Dustin Johnson returns to action this week and leads a strong field that includes Adam Scott, John Rahm, Phil Mickelson and defending champion James Hahn. With the Players just a week away and The U.S. Open looming about a month out, it is a great time for players to find a groove.

There won't be a lot of comfort at Eagle Point as most in attendance will be logging their first rounds there during this event but the apparent commonalities with Augusta should give players some familiar sight lines at least. The biggest aesthetic at the 7, 529 yard, par-72 layout is the pine tree lined fairways. The presence of those trees will help players see the appropriate way to play the hole and will help the accurate drivers find the right spots to attack the greens from. There are several holes with collection areas and multiple par-3's bring water into play so the mid-iron approach game should factor often. There is also water in play on two of the par-5's to provide some risk/reward opportunities on those supposedly easy scoring holes. Carl Pettersson, currently a 150 to 1 longshot to win, is a member at Eagle Point. Maybe that home field advantage can be parlayed into a strong finish.

Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight the players and bets that we like best. We make some picks to win and breakdown a couple of head-to-head matches that are featured at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Here are our picks and predictions to win the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship.

Kevin Kisner (22 to 1 odds to win)
Kisner isn't the first name that jumps to mind when you think about potential winners but there is little doubt he is going to give it a good go. He has missed just one cut in thirteen starts this season and that trunk slam came all the way back in November. His last three starts have produced T2, T11 and playoff runner-up finishes so the heat factor is here and that makes for a nice value play as well with the Dustin Johnson's of the world getting the very short 5 to 1 type of odds. I like a diverse skill set when we hit a new course and Kevin has the front-to-back stat sheet with top-12 marks in approach metrics, overall tee-to-green performance and stokes gained overall. He is 17th in fairways so you can expect him to set himself up for good looks and a respectable putting performance thus far has netted a top-35 scoring average. He might be an out of the box pick for a favorite but he won't be a surprising champ if it works out that way.

J.B. Holmes (40 to 1)
I think J.B. is due for a run at a win. He has missed just one cut in ten starts this season but really hasn't put together a full tournament yet. He played well during a T5 last week and he has the kind of game that should translate to scoring well here. He is solid in the tee-to-green and approach categories with ranks in that respectable 25-55 range in the strokes gained measurements but he adds top notch driving distance to his repertoire. That plus-stat will allow him to attack the par-5's and ideally get some easy birdies. Holmes' putting has left much to be desired overall but I give him as good a chance as anyone this week based on unfamiliar greens. He has a top-35 birdies per round average so he just has to avoid a few hiccups to make a legitimate run.

Nick Watney (90 to 1)
I try not to let last week over influence the picks for the next week but I'm doing that a little this week with Watney. He hit so many good shots in sketchy conditions last week that I have to believe he is swinging it well and potentially on the verge of putting it all together. Despite having a pretty vanilla season to this point, Nick ranks 33rd in approach performance and is 12th in proximity so the guy can flat hit it close when he is right. The putter has disappointed thus far but like Holmes, I think Watney is a fair bet to be close to field average with many likely to take a while to figure it all out. He is not a bogey-machine so pars will be the result if he isn't making putts early. Maybe he can get a few to drop and get on a scoring roll with another hot iron performance.

Head-to-Head Matches
Picks to win based on predicted score after all four rounds. Check with Bovada Sportsbookfor single round matches and a variety of prop bets.

Patrick Reed v. Alexander Noren (pick to win: Noren)
This is a tough match to handicap with stats as Noren hasn't played enough rounds on Tour this season to qualify them for ranking and the numbers he has logged are skewed a bit by playing only the WGC events and the Masters. Bottom line is that Noren is one of the hottest players on the planet right now after four wins in Europe last season and a third place finish in the Race to Dubai. He moved as high as 9th in the OWGR last year during his streak of good play and is now committing to more events in the U.S. as his status allows. Reed is a tough opponent and he did play pretty well last week but he has not found his rhythm at all this season. He may just be having an extended hangover after the Ryder Cup hoopla but he is off his normal rankings in every meaningful stat category. His name recognition keeps him up against really tough competition however and that puts him at a disadvantage as he is often an underdog when it comes to recent performance. I predict a cool period yet for Reed so bet against him while he is figuring it out.

Adam Scott v. Paul Casey (pick to win: Casey)
Stay with the stats on this one and almost all of them point to Casey. He leads Scott in fairways hit, greens hit and has virtually the same scoring average despite a lesser birdies per round average. Scott is making a few more mistakes right now and is especially weak in saving par at this point. I do not like the sound of that heading into unfamiliar surroundings and Casey should be fine as a top-10 scrambler. Scott has been the better putter through the spring but not enough to sway this pick. It should be close but Casey is the wolf in sheep's clothing in this pairing.

2017 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Odds to Win the Tournament

Dustin Johnson 11/2
Jon Rahm 10/1
Adam Scott 18/1
Paul Casey 20/1
Phil Mickelson 22/1
Kevin Kisner 25/1
Bill Haas 30/1
J.B. Holmes 30/1
Webb Simpson 30/1
William McGirt 30/1
Wesley Bryan 33/1
Daniel Berger 35/1
Francesco Molinari 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Will Wilcox 50/1
Emiliano Grillo 60/1
Kevin Na 60/1
Lucas Glover 60/1
Alex Noren 65/1
Byeong Hun An 65/1
Graeme McDowell 65/1
Hudson Swafford 65/1
Pat Perez 65/1
Steve Wheatcroft 65/1
Zach Johnson 65/1
Luke List 70/1
Martin Laird 70/1
Shane Lowry 70/1
Brian Harman 75/1
Soren Kjeldsen 75/1
Brian Gay 80/1
Jim Furyk 80/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 80/1
Kevin Tway 85/1
J.T. Poston 90/1
Nick Watney 90/1
Bryson Dechambeau 100/1
Harold Varner III 100/1
Harris English 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Matt Jones 100/1
Stewart Cink 100/1
Tyler Aldridge 100/1
Brandon Hagy 125/1
Chris Kirk 125/1
Jason Kokrak 125/1
Nick Taylor 125/1
Patton Kizzire 125/1
Sam Saunders 125/1
Scott Brown 125/1
David Lingmerth 140/1
Camilo Villegas 150/1
Carl Pettersson 150/1
Chris Stroud 150/1
James Hahn 150/1
Michael Thompson 150/1
Patrick Rodgers 150/1
Robby Shelton 150/1
Zac Blair 150/1
Andrew Johnston 175/1
Chad Campbell 175/1
Geoff Ogilvy 175/1
Troy Merritt 180/1
Andres Gonzales 200/1
Billy Hurley III 200/1
Cameron Tringale 200/1
Chez Reavie 200/1
D.A. Points 200/1
David Hearn 200/1
Dominic Bozzelli 200/1
Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 200/1
Retief Goosen 200/1
Vaughn Taylor 200/1
Xander Schauffele 200/1
Alex Cejka 225/1
Angel Cabrera 225/1
Chase Koepka 225/1
Grayson Murray 225/1
Johnson Wagner 225/1
Kyle Reifers 225/1
Robert Streb 225/1
Seung-Yul Noh 225/1
Smylie Kaufman 225/1
Tim Wilkinson 225/1
Bryce Molder 250/1
C.T. Pan 250/1
Cameron Percy 250/1
Curtis Luck 250/1
Hunter Mahan 250/1
John Peterson 250/1
Mackenzie Hughes 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Morgan Hoffmann 250/1
Ricky Barnes 250/1
Roberto Castro 250/1
Ryan Blaum 250/1
Seamus Power 250/1
Sebastian Munoz 250/1
Shawn Stefani 250/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 250/1
Ryo Ishikawa 275/1
Ben Martin 300/1
Boo Weekley 300/1
Chesson Hadley 300/1
Derek Ernst 300/1
Fabian Gomez 300/1
Greg Owen 300/1
J.J. Henry 300/1
Jonathan Randolph 300/1
Julian Etulain 300/1
Nicholas Lindheim 300/1
Rory Sabbatini 300/1
Ryan Brehm 300/1
Scott Stallings 300/1
Tag Ridings 300/1
Tom Hoge 300/1
Trey Mullinax 300/1
Whee Kim 300/1
Will MacKenzie 300/1
Bob Estes 350/1
Brad Fritsch 350/1
Derek Fathauer 350/1
Ernie Els 350/1
Jason Bohn 350/1
Vijay Singh 350/1
Brendon de Jonge 400/1
Brian Campbell 400/1
Davis Love III 400/1
Greg Chalmers 400/1
Mark Anderson 400/1
Richy Werenski 400/1
Ryan Armour 400/1
Spencer Levin 400/1
Bobby Wyatt 500/1
Chad Collins 500/1
Charlie Beljan 500/1
Ken Duke 500/1
Max Homa 500/1
Peter Malnati 500/1
Steven Alker 500/1
Zack Sucher 500/1
Brett Stegmaier 600/1
Mark Hubbard 600/1
Miguel Angel Carballo 600/1
Shane Bertsch 600/1
Brett Drewitt 750/1
Carter Jenkins 750/1
Joel Dahmen 750/1
Rick Lamb 750/1
Savio Nazareth 750/1
Steven Bowditch 750/1

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