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Handicapping

The Wyndham Championship Predictions

Event: The Wyndham Championship
When: August 17-20, 2017
Where: Sedgefield CC Ė Greensboro, NC
TV: The Golf Channel/CBS
by: Evergreen of Predictem.com

It is kind of absurd to say that a season that started back in October of 2016 has gone by quickly but, here we are, just one week away from the FedExCup Playoffs. The PGA Tour marches on and that march takes them to Greensboro, North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship. Greensboro has been part of the Tour landscape going back to the late 1930ís but we have known the stop as the Wyndham for just under ten years. The big story lines this week have to do with who is in and who is out of the playoffs. Just the top-125 in FedEx points will advance to next week with guys like Ryan Palmer, Graeme McDowell and Smylie Kaufman among the more notable bubble-boys. Veterans like Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen and Boo Weekley are almost surely to miss the post-season but a win this week can change that. Players have had all year to get themselves in position to make the playoff field but now there is just one chance remaining to gain or retain a spot. Every shot counts and someone is inevitably going to make that one swing that either puts them in, or takes them out of the money.

Sedgefield CC roots go all the way back to the day of the Greater Greensboro Open when it served as part of a rotation of host courses. There was a hiatus after 1976 but Sedgefield returned in 2008 when Wyndham took over sponsorship duties. In the years since 2008, there has been a lot of great golf here with winning total often in the high teens under par. Si Woo Kim set both the single round and tournament scoring record on the way to his win last season. He will not defend this week due to a back injury but the door seems wide open for the international players as five of the nine championships since 2008 have been won by an international representative. The course is short by Tour standards at just a shade over 7,100 yards but ball striking is at a premium with plenty of trouble for those that cannot find the fairways. Control is almost always the better play here and there arenít really many chances to challenge the course with power. The more patient players will get those quality looks more often and avoid the potential blow-ups that could derail a round. This is a throwback type of course and while it is a little less exciting than watching massive drives and players attacking long par-5ís, you will get to see just how good these players can be simply by hitting the prescribed target.

Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight the players that we think can win it all. We make some picks to win versus the odds that you can find at Bovada Sportsbook (50% bonus up to $250 FREE and your credit card will work there!). Here are our picks to win the 2017 Wyndham Championship.

Jason Dufner (22 to 1 odds to win)

This field is pretty short with Henrik Stenson and Kevin Kisner as the bigger names in the draw so Dufner settles in nicely as a relevant talent but he is far enough down the board to still bring nice value. He has the accuracy game in check as he enters the week 35th in fairways hit and 21st in approach shot proximity. He putts really well when he hits the greens, ranking 42nd in putts per green in regulation and that helps him score even though his overall putting average is outside the top-100. That also means he isnít the best scrambler or shot saver in this field so he will need a plus week with the iron and the putter to pay this bet. I think he can accomplish that, just like he did at the Memorial, by consistently putting himself in the right positions around this course. He is 28th in overall tee-to-green performance, making him one of the better players in this field in that category.

Keegan Bradley (40 to 1)

Bradley gets the nod here as a nice mid-range pick because he is simply one of the better ball strikers in this field. He enters the week 24th in fairways hit and 23rd in greens hit and his overall tee game ranks 7th on Tour. He has missed six cuts on the season but has been perfect since the first week of June with T8 and T5 finishes during that span. He is top-50 in both birdie and scoring average with his unadjusted scoring average improving to 33rd overall. Keegan is still a work in progress on the greens and he will need to do better than his 142nd overall putting rank to contend this week but the rest of the game looks to be right where it needs to be.

Daniel Summerhays (70 to 1)

I like Daniel this week due to motivation. He is just one spot clear of missing the playoffs so he needs a good week just to make round one and likely needs a strong finish here and another to make the next round. Laying all on the line makes for a boom or bust kind of bet but that is just fine for a longshot type of player. Summerhays ranks a solid 55th in fairways so look for him to be in place off the tee and he scores a bit better than his birdie average would suggest, an indication that he doesnít give too many shot away each round. He is a slightly above average putter and that will help him keep up with a potentially fast scoring pace.

Head-to-Head Matches

Picks to win based on predicted score after all four rounds. Check with 5Dimes Sportsbook for the best array of single round matches and a the best variety of prop bets.

Webb Simpson v. Bill Haas (pick to win: Simpson)
This is probably the most common pairing on the main markets as both players are similarly talented and really make for a good 50/50 proposition. Both are relatively short off the tee but Simpson hits fairways at a much better rate and that will give him a nice edge to start things off. Haas is the better putter to own the back half of things but the scoring averages are about the same even with that edge Haas has on the greens. All other things being pretty equal, Iíd rather have the guy who is getting more birdie looks than the other, even if the make-rate is less.
Danny Lee v. Billy Horschel (pick to win: Horschel)
There arenít many better in this field at finding the greens than Horschel. He enters the week at 22nd in GIR% and nets a sizeable advantage there in this pairing. Lee is the better birdie man on the year but actually scores a tad worse which just means he makes more mistakes as well. Neither are very good at saving themselves after a missed shot but at least Haas is hitting the green at an elite rate and that should have him ahead at a course that rewards accuracy.

Good luck and good golf.

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