Barclays Picks

The Barclays
Date: August 25th–28th, 2011
Course: Plainfield CC – Edison, NJ
TV: The Golf Channel/CBS
by Evergreen, Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com

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Just as the NFL is gearing up for the start of a season, the PGA Tour begins the season ending FedEx Cup Playoffs this week with the 2011 Barclays.  Plainfield Country Club in New Jersey is serving as host to the top-125 on the FedEx Points list and all know that solid performances are needed to stay exempt through to the Tour Championship.  Only the top-100 after this week will make the field at the Deutsche and big names like Els, Harrington, and Poulter are in danger of missing next week if they would slip up here.  Young players like last week’s winnerWebb Simpson and rookie Keegan Bradley are in position to potentially make a run at an overall Playoff victory and vets like Phil Mickelson are looking to put a mark on an otherwise below average season. Catch the early rounds on The Golf Channel with CBS picking up the weekend.

The Barclays is one of the tournament stops that use a rotation of courses and Plainfield CC will be hosting its first PGA Tour event.  The course will play at par-71 and measure right around 7,000 yards for the championship.  It remains to be seen what Plainfield has in store for the players, but the Barclays has typically produced a moderate scoring pace regardless of location with winning totals coming in the 9 to 16-under range. There won’t be much advantage to anyone as far as course knowledge, so look for the better putters to distance themselves until the field gets a better handle on how to play the greens.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight a few players that we think can win it all.  We give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown couple of head to head matches that you can find at any golf sportsbook.  Here are our picks for the 2011 Barclays with odds to win and match ups courtesy of the board at Bodog.

Short Favorite:  Steve Stricker (16 to 1 odds to win)

No one has performed better since the FedEx Playoffs begun than Stricker.  He is one of two players to compete in every playoff event and the only one that has not missed a cut while leading the Tour in Playoff top-10 finishes with ten.  The 2007 Barclays champion enters the week ranked first in total putting, birdie average, scrambling and par breakers so there is not a scenario that would make you think he could not contend here.  Steve also has not finished outside the top-20 since February and continues to lead the Tour in consecutive cuts made with the streak standing at 38.  If you blindly bet Stricker to win every week this year, you’d be ahead at this point.

Middle of the Road:  Nick Watney (22 to 1 odds to win)

Watney enters the week as the regular season points champ and will need a win to stay on top of that list.  A win would be his third and the putter could get him there with top-3 ranks in both strokes gained and total putting.  Nick is strong across the board with top-10 marks in birdie and scoring average along with the 5th ranked all around game.  Oddly, but impressively, Watney ranks exactly 10th in birdie or better percentage on par-3’s, par-4’s and par-5’s, which proves he can get it done on any hole at any course.

Longshot:  Gary Woodland (40 to 1 odds to win)

Woodland broke through with a win at the Transitions and will be looking to cap an impressive year overall that saw him miss just four cuts in twenty starts.  Gary is among the longest on Tour, coming into the week ranked 5th in distance and also comes in at 9th in GIR%.  Putting has been the weak link in his game overall but he still manages top-20 marks in birdie and scoring average as well as total birdies and ballstriking.

Head to Head Matches *picks to win are based on entire event.  Check with your favorite online bookie for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.

Rickie Fowler (-115) v. Dustin Johnson (-115) (our pick to win: Fowler)

This is a great match between two of the more promising young players out there but Fowler looks to be the pick with the much more effective putter at this point.  Both players are long and make some mistakes off the tee, but despite hitting more greens, Johnson trails in scoring average. When in doubt, go with the better putter.

Phil Mickelson (-115) v. Webb Simpson (-115) (our pick to win: Simpson)

It's doubtful that Lefty has even been paired with a name like Simpson without being listed as a heavy favorite, but that is how far he has fallen, at least in betting terms.  Simpson has the advantage in fairways and greens hit, overall ballstriking and scoring, so there just isn’t a statistical case to be made for Mickelson.  Phil does play well in the Playoff events, but make him show you that before you take him over the #1 ranked all around player on Tour.

Good Luck!

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