BMW Championship Picks

BMW Championship
Date: September 15th–18th, 2011
Course: Cog Hill G&C (Dubsdread Course) – Lemont, IL
TV: The Golf Channel/NBC
by Evergreen, PGA Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com

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After a week off, the PGA Tour returns to action this week as the players travel to Illinois for the BMW Championship. The top-70 players on the FedEx Points list are at Cog Hill for the third leg of the playoffs and while a win is on everyone’s wish list, making the exempt list for the Tour Championship is the ultimate goal. Currently, the top-21 on the points list have their tickets punched for Atlanta regardless of finish this week, leaving the remaining nine spots to be fought over by 49 players. Big names that are in danger of missing the Tour Championship include Rickie Fowler, Jim Furyk, and Sergio Garcia.

The Dubsdread Course will host its 4th BMW Championship overall and will challenge players to hit tree-and bunker-lined fairways and also solve very undulating greens. The 7,386 yard, par-71 course ranked as the 10th hardest in 2010 play with Dustin Johnson managing a 9-under par winning total. Tiger Woods won the other two events at Cog Hill in 2007 and 2009 with much lower scores, with his ’09 win including a course record 62. The event was moved to Bellerive in St. Louis in 2008 as Cog Hill underwent improvements that included renovations to every tee and green complex. The three par-5’s will be pivotal down the stretch on Sunday as all come in a stretch from holes 9 to 15 and the par-4 finishing hole measures nearly 500 yards and plays as the hardest on the course.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight a few players that we think can win it all. We give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head matches that you can find at any quality sportsbook. Here are our picks to win the 2011 BMW Championship:

Short Favorite: Dustin Johnson (16 to 1 odds to win)
This pick might be a little short on imagination, but it is not short on value as 16 to1 is a very good potential return for a defending champion and there are only 69 other players standing in the way of a repeat. Johnson salvaged a season with a win at the playoff-opening Barclays and his game has been prone to steaks, both hot and cold. Dustin can shorten Cog Hill with the 3rd best driving distance on Tour and his GIR% has been good enough to lead to the 2nd best birdie average. 13th in the all around, Johnson is strong across the sheet but needs a hot putter to make the best of his chances and save the pars when he does fail to hit the green. You would expect the par-5’s to be friendly to Johnson, but he uses his distance best on the par-4’s where he’s best on Tour in par-4 performance.

Middle of the Road: Matt Kuchar 22 to 1 odds to win)
Kuchar has had a good run in the 2011 playoffs with T2 and T25 finishes and looks to get a handle on a potential overall win with another strong finish. Matt has had success at Cog Hill with top-10 finishes in each of the last two years and has the game to improve on that. Kuch is among the more accurate players, ranking 36th in greens hit and his 19th ranked putter has led to the 5th best scoring average. There are few weaknesses on the 6th best all around stat-sheet and Matt has proved he can play with anyone at this course.

Longhsot: Camilo Villegas (40 to 1 odds to win)
Few have played better than Villegas since the playoff concept began and probably only Tiger and his two wins have been better at the BMW than Camilo. In the three Cog Hill events, Villegas has finished T9, T8 and T11 and he needs another stellar finish to make it to Atlanta. There isn’t much on the stat sheet that would make a convincing case for Camilo but he is plenty long to play here and he has the type of imaginative shot making that plays well at courses like Dubsdread.

Head to Head Matches *picks to win are based on entire event. Check with your favorite online bookie for single round matches and a variety of prop bets. Featured matches courtesy of the board at Bodog.

Jim Furyk (-115) v. Brandt Snedeker (-115) (our pick to win: Snedeker)
Furyk obviously knows what it takes to win an overall playoff championship but Snedeker knows how much it stings to miss out of the Tour Championship on the final green at the BMW so he will be as motivated as any to play well this week. Both are fine iron players and will hit a ton of greens at Cog Hill, but Snedeker is the better putter and has a big edge in birdie and scoring average and gets the nod here.

Luke Donald (-130) v. Adam Scott (EVEN) (our pick to win: Scott)
It’s tough to pick against Donald given he is almost automatic to be in the top-10 but the even money is too tough to ignore. Scott fares well on the stat sheet against in all areas except putting, but the switch to the long putter has been good to the Aussie and he’s been in the mix ever since. Scott is definitively longer than Donald and his overall ballstriking is better as well, so even an average putting week should put this match in his hands.

Good Luck!

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