Humana Challenge Picks

The Humana Challenge
Date: January 19-22, 2012
Course: PGA West (multiple courses) – La Quinta, California
TV: The Golf Channel
by Evergreen, Professional Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com

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The PGA Tour makes the jump to the mainland for week three of the schedule and lands in California for the Humana Challenge.  Formerly the famous Bob Hope Classic, the fan-favorite tournament enters a partnership with Humana and Bill Clinton’s Foundation going forward and not only the name will be changed.  The Hope was a popular pro-am event that featured a five-day format hosted by four courses but starting this year, the pro-am part has been tweaked and the event will be the standard 72 holes held on three courses.  The changes seem to be welcomed by the players and a strong field is in attendance, including Phil Mickelson and several other top players that have not participated in recent years.  Jhonattan Vegas is back to defend his 2011 Humana title with all the action on the Golf Channel.

One thing that will not be changing this week is the very hot scoring pace that has become associated with this event.  The Palmer and Nicklaus courses at PGA West along with La Quinta Country Club remain the host venues as in years past and all rank among the easiest in the Tour rotation.  The Palmer course famously gave up a 59 to David Duval in 1999 and all kinds of scoring records have fallen in recent years at these player-friendly tracks.  All three layouts are par-72 and measure in the 6,950-7,200 yard range with ample fairways and forgiving greens which are relatively easy to read and putt.  The courses can be attacked in a variety of ways so look for every type of player to be on the leaderboard but the winner will undoubtedly have the hottest putter of the week.

Each week, we take a look at the golf sportsbooks and highlight a few players that we think can win it all.  We make a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a few head to head matches that you can find at any quality online betting site.  Here are our picks to win the 2012 Humana Challenge.

Short Favorite: Dustin Johnson (16 to 1 odds to win)
Johnson will be making his first start in the 2012 season and his first at the Humana since 2009, so this pick has more to say about his game than recent results.  Dustin is one of the longest players off the tee at over 315 yards on average and he should use that distance to dominate these courses.  His greens in regulation stat is in the top-30 and made enough putts in 2011 for the 4th best birdie average. D.J. finished last year with the 3rd best par-breaker stat and was first in par-4 birdies.

Middle of the Road: Zach Johnson (30 to 1 odds to win)
Zach might share the last name of our short odds pick, but the similarities end there.  This Johnson favors the control game, ranking 8th in fairways in 2011, and makes his money on the greens with top-20 ranks in strokes gained and total putting.  With the easy layouts, Zach should be among the tournament leaders in greens hit and that should give him the chance to get hot with that putter and be on the front page come Sunday.

Longshot: Carl Pettersson (40 to 1 odds to win)
Pettersson is another premier putter on Tour with top-30 ranks in average and total putting from 2011 and he recorded the 15th most total birdies last season.  Carl got off to a great start last week with a T2 at the Sony and was hitting the ball a ton off the tee on the way to 18 birdies over the four days.  You need a hot hand going into an event like this and Pettersson is rolling well right now and also has the right kind of laid-back attitude to handle the sometimes-crazy atmosphere of a pro-am.

Head to Head Matches *picks to win based on all finish after all four rounds.  Check with your favorite online bookmaker for single round matches plus a variety of prop bets.

Phil Mickelson v. Matt Kuchar (pick to win: Kuchar)
Mickelson wins this one on name recognition but Kuchar looks to have the goods to win on the course.  Both hit about the same amount of greens last year but a better putter gave Kuch an edge in scoring average at the end of the season.  Matt hits more fairways and while that isn’t too important this week, you’d still rather have a proven record of consistent play in the early season.  If you can find Kuchar at or near even money in this match, take him in a heartbeat.

Charles Howell III v. Martin Laird (pick to win: Howell III)
A good match between some pretty underrated players should go the way of Charlie H. and his better putting stats.  Howell III is not among the top-100 in birdie average but makes so few mistakes that his scoring average is top-10 on Tour and about 30 places better than what Laird managed in 2011.  Laird also lags a bit in the greens hit category and those missed opportunities will show up when the scoring pace is this high.

Good Luck!

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