PGA Championship Picks

The PGA Championship
Dates: August 11th–14th, 2011
Course: Atlanta Athletic Club (Highlands Course) – John’s Creek, GA
TV: TNT/CBS
by Evergreen, Golf Betting Handicapper, Predictem.com

Bet the 2011 PGA Championship using your credit card at the web's oldest and most trusted sportsbook: Intertops.

The long, hot days mean that time is short on the PGA Tour calendar and the players head south to Georgia this week for the year’s last Major, The PGA Championship.  The Highlands Course at Atlanta Athletic Club plays host to the 93rd PGA Championship and has quite the different look from when it last had the event in 2001.  That year, David Toms, torched the course and posted a winning total of 15-under par but do not expect the same type of scores this time around as the entire course has seen major changes and will provide whole new set of challenges for the best players in the world.  Rory McIlroy is a favorite among the handicappers and a lot of focus is being put on the chances of the American golfers as most of the odds on favorites to win this week are foreign-born players. Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson still represent the best chance for an American win as far as the bookies are concerned with Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler among the players poised to win their first Major.  TNT has all the early round action with CBS picking up the weekend broadcasts.

Players that participated in the 2001 PGA Championship at AAC will recognize the course as the layout has not drastically changed but it will play dramatically different as every fairway has been narrowed either by the presence of bunkers or the reinforcement of the angles on the doglegs.  That will require more accuracy off the tee and the changes are present on the greens as well with Bermuda grass now in place instead of the traditional bentgrass.  The Bermuda handles the southern summer climate better and the greens will be firmer and faster than in years past.  The weather in the Atlanta area has been very warm which will firm up the course even more and while that will make the par-70 play shorter than the listed 7,467 yards, it will also make holding or even hitting the greens near impossible from the rough.  The winning total has been speculated at anywhere from one or two-under par to the high single digits-under but no matter the eventual winning total, the champion will have had to hit a lot of fairways and figured out the new putting surfaces early.

Each week, we take a look at the online golf sportsbooks and highlight a few players that we think have a good chance to win it all. We give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head matches that you can find at any online betting site.  Here are our picks for the 2011 PGA Championship with odds and matches courtesy of the board at Bodog Sportsbook.

Short Favorite: Jason Day (25 to 1 odds to win)

Day has been close to victory at the Majors this year with runner-up finishes at both the Masters and U.S. Open and should be a factor this week as well.  Jason will need to hit more fairways than he typically does, but he is plenty long to not play driver off the tee and still have scoring irons in his hands.  The greens shouldn’t be an issue with Day in the top-42 in both strokes gained and total putting entering the week and he is top-10 in both scoring average and all-around.  The par-3’s at AAC are challenging and Jason could separate himself on those holes as he leads the Tour in par-3 performance so far this year.

Middle of the Road: Matt Kuchar (33 to 1 odds to win)

Kuchar has cooled off a bit from earlier in the year, but he still has missed only two cuts in 18 starts and has 8 top-10 finishes including a T2 at the Memorial.  Matt is not long but is top-50 in fairways hit and is top-30 in both GIR% and total putting.  That combination has produced the 16th best birdie average and the 6th best scoring mark.  Kuchar favors the low-risk, no mistakes approach that works well in the Majors and his 15th ranked scrambling game should help him save par when he does get in a bit of trouble.

Longshot:  K.J. Choi (66 to 1 odds to win)

Choi is the type of gritty vet that you know is eyeing the Majors as the perfect time to pull out all the stops and steal a win.  You probably haven’t seen much of K.J. on TV outside of the week he won the Players Championship, but he has made the weekend in 14 of 17 starts and has six top-10 finishes.  You won’t find anything that jumps off the stat sheet, but Choi is “good enough” with top-80 ranks in greens hit and putting to make some birdies and even though his fairway % is down from years past, he still manages to be greater than the sum of the parts and sports the 21st ranked scoring average on Tour.

Head to Head Matches *matches are for entire event.  Check with your favorite online bookmaker for single round matches and variety of prop bets.

Dustin Johnson (-115) v. Nick Watney (-115) (our pick to win: Watney)

Both players in this match have eyes on winning this title outright, but Watney should get the better of this match with a decided edge on the greens.  Watney is a top-5 putter in the strokes-gained category with Johnson a long way back at 162nd.  The rest of the sheet is pretty similar so the putter becomes the reason why Watney is outscoring Johnson even though Dustin is 2nd in birdie average.

Aaron Baddeley (-115) v. Gary Woodland (-115) (our pick to win: Woodland)

Both players could struggle to make the weekend if they do not find a way to straighten out the drives but Woodland owns the advantage in hitting the greens and overall ballstriking so he gets the nod.  Baddeley can putt with anyone on Tour but has been mistake prone to this point and that will hurt at any Major.

Good Luck!

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