Sony Open Picks

The 2012 Sony Open
January 12 – 15, 2012 Waialae CC – Honolulu, HI
The Golf Channel
By Evergreen, Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com

Bet the Sony Open using your credit card at an online sportsbook where it WILL worK for deposits: BetOnline.

I can see how you may not want to think golf until the NFL Playoffs are over, but those of us that watch the early PGA Tour events get treated to some of the best views in all of golf with the year’s first tournaments taking place in Hawaii.  The Sony Open is the second event of the 2012 PGA Tour schedule but it is the first with anopen field as last week’s Tournament of Champions was invitation only.  That means a much larger field at Waialae Country Club for the 47th tournament hosted at the Honolulu site.  Steve Stricker will look  for the mini-sweep on the islands after his victory at the T.O.C. and the online sportsbooks like his chances with Stricker listed as the consensus favorite at 7/1 odds to win. Tiger Woods is waiting until Pebble to make his 2012 debut, but many of the Tour’s top players are in attendance, highlighted by several of the “young guns.”

Mark Wilson won the 2011 Sony Open at 16-under and the course at Waialae will provide a tougher test than the what players saw at last week’s Plantation Course.  Waialae CC measures 7,044 yards and the par-70 track played as the 21st hardest in the 52 course rotation used by the PGA in 2011.  Like most ocean courses, you’ll see plenty of sand and water in play but good shotmaking will eliminate nearly all of the trouble and good scores will be shot.  David Toms mastered the layout during the 2006 event and shot a course-record 61 on the way to victory.  Getting by holes one and two in good shape will be key to shooting that good score as they rank as two of the hardest par-4s on the course.  The two par-5’s, coming at nine and eighteen, are the best scoring opportunities with both holes reachable at 506 and 551 yards.  Having that par-5 to finish could make for an exciting finish come Sunday.

Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight a few players that we think can win it all.  We give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head matches that you can find at any quality golf sportsbook.  Our head to head match record for the year stands at 1-1 after one week.  Here are our picks to win the 2012 Sony Open in Hawaii.

Evergreen's 2012 Sony Open Picks:

Short Favorite: Webb Simpson (10 to 1 odds to win)
Simpson broke on to the scene in 2011 and looks to be off to a good start this year with a T3 at the Hyundai.  He has had success at Waialae with a T9 in 2009 and certainly has the game to contend this week.  Webb has a great mix of length and accuracy, finishing 2011 ranked 24th in total driving while averaging nearly 300 yards off the tee.  Simpson has no real weakness in his game and finished the year with the second most birdies on Tour and the best all-around ranking.  Webb has the look of confidence going and should be a multiple event winner in 2012.

Middle of the Road:  Jonathan Byrd (25 to 1 odds to win)
I’m guessing that most pros like playing in Hawaii but Byrd has liked it more than most lately with a 2011 win at the T.O.C. and a T3 last week.  Jonathan hit 70% of the fairways at the Plantation Course and used a hot putter on the way to nearly six birdies per round.  Waialae features more demanding putting surfaces than the players saw last week but Byrd finished 2011 with the 28th best total putting stat and shouldn’t have a problem solving the greens this week.  Byrd missed a lot of fairways last year but it looked like he was dialing back the distance in order to hit more fairways at the T.O.C. and that formula should play well at Waialae, too.

Longshot: Jerry Kelly (40 to 1 odds to win)
Jerry is another veteran that loves to play in Hawaii.  Maybe because his native Wisconsin is the one of the last places you’d want to be in the winter but whatever the reason, Kelly has got it done at the Sony.  Jerry was T13 here in both 2006 and 2007 and has top-10’s in 2008 and 2011 as well.  Kelly finished last season as the 3rd best in finding the fairway and his no-mistakes approach helped turn the 134th ranked birdies per round average into a top-30 scoring average.  This journeyman has seen it all and excels on courses where he can utilize that experience.  If Steve Stricker can’t win in back to back weeks, maybe this cheesehead can bring another trophy home to the Badger state.

Head to Head Matches *picks to win based on all four rounds.  Check with your favorite online bookmaker for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.

Keegan Bradley (-115) v. Rory Sabbatini (-115) (our pick to win: Sabbatini)
Both of these players teed it up last week and while each played well, Sabbs got the better of Bradley by two strokes.  Look for more of the same as Rory seemed to have the better putter which equalizes a slightly better overall game by Bradley.  Sabbatini drove the ball well last week and doing so again would eliminate Keegan’s biggest statistical advantage.

David Toms (-115) v. Jason Dufner (-115) (our pick to win: Toms)
Even though Toms did not play well last week, you have to like his chances to rebound quickly at what looks to be a favorite course.  Toms was 2nd in 2009 to go along with his 2006 victory and his 2011 stat sheet compares favorably with Dufner’s.  Toms has the advantage in fairways and greens hit and a much better putting average so you can chalk up last week’s over-par performance as a warm up and make him the favorite to win this match.

Good luck!

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