Betting on Bad Teams
by Predictem.com Staff
If you want to get serious at beating the book and topping that magical 52.4% your going to have to learn to bet on bad teams. While this is a pretty general statement, it's probably one of the biggest keys to winning, success in beating 52.4% (the percentage at which you break even betting at -110) and most importantly avoiding losing.
Let's face it, nobody WANTS to bet on the 2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, San Francisco 49ers or the Los Angeles Clippers. Their teams basically stink, have less skilled position players and are likely to lose every time they play a game.
Ok, now with that being said, keep in mind that most sports (football/basketball) involve a point spread.The bookmaker, knowing that most bettors prefer to bet on the "good" teams, will weight or "shade" lines towards the favorite sucking the value out of the favorite spread and adding value to the underdog in the match. Please note that the previous statement does NOT mean that you should never bet favorites and only bet on all underdogs. Each game should be treated individually and a play made on either side only when value is present. What we mean by value is when a point spread is "off" a bit and more generous towards one side than the other.
A great way to determine how juicy a spread is would be to go to wagerline.com and check out their consensus for the days game to see how the public are making their picks. If you see a bunch of people on one side of a game, you better seriously consider getting on the other side because more times than not the public is being duped into a "sucker line." This especially holds true if you see that over 3/4 of all bettors are on one side and the point spread hasnt moved either way. This means the bookie is taking one sided action on a game and by not moving his line he's basically taking a stand that he believes the value is on the side of the lesser selected team.
While the above listed formula is not an exact science by any means, there's a ton of loot to be made when the public is hammering one side and you take the other. Especially as that public consensus goes up. In most cases, the higher the public perception percentage, the strong the go against.
Why go against the public? Because most sports bettors are uninformed, don't handicap games properly and for some reason are hooked on betting on the good teams.
More times than not, you'll find that the opponent who is getting very little action is a much lesser known team or unpopular in the eyes of sports fans. While they may not win the game straight up, covering the spread is another story. Some of the worst teams are the best at covering point spreads. Believe it! The sooner you figure this out the sooner you'll stop losing and the sooner you'll break even and increase your chances at being a winner.
Don't believe us? Start tracking bad teams as well as good teams and see how you come out over the course of a season. Don't be surprised if the NFL team that went 5-11 straight up during the regular season went 11-5 against the spread.
Until next time, good luck in your action!
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