Bad Teams Equal Good Bets
by Predictem.com Staff
If your new to handicapping football games we'd like to fill you in on a little secret that will save you years of losing before you get your first sniff of consistent winning. This also goes out football bettors that have been consistent losers over the years. No matter which one you are, it's time to change your approach from an objective point of view.
This may surprise you, but bad teams are good bets. It doesn't make a lot of sense because most people usually associate bad teams with losing and losing with having to pay the bookie. Keep in mind that there's a point spread involved here fellas and that losing doesn't always mean, well, losing!
There are two things that we know are true.
1. Point spreads are created based on public perception. The bookmaker doesn't really know who is going to win and by how many, their simply trying to put out a line that will get somewhat even action on both sides and/or dupe the novice betting public into sucker lines that appear to good to be true.
2. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. ESPECIALLY in the final weeks of the NFL football season. After all, how in the world could the Green Bay Packers who couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag be heavy favorites over the playoff bound Seattle Seahawks in the final weeks of the NFL's regular season? Squares being squares, (novice uniformed bettors) people lined up at the windows to dump cash on the Seahawks getting the points not even thinking about the fact that the starters may only play briefly in the first half just to keep them sharp and then the second team would come in and mop up the game. Not only that, but the Seahawks only goal was to not sustain any injuries along with maybe trying out a few new plays to see how the opponents defense would react. Final Score: Packers 23 Seahawks 17 and the game wasn't as close as the final score would indicate.
Lastly, bookies know that the general betting public likes to root for the "good teams" and "lots of points" to be scored in a game. With that thought in mind, the better teams and games foreseen to be high scoring can actually have shaded favorite lines/over totals completely sucking the value out of these bets and making the only option to play the bad team or the under. Remember, a bad team can still be a loser straight up while winning against the spread and that's all that matters!
It's hard to get used to doing, but your bankroll will quickly fall in love with the results!
Until next time, good luck with your wagers!
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