Sports Handicapping 101
by Jerald of Predictem.com
If you want a lesson on the basics of handicapping we have the information for you! The first lesson is to know the lingo that sportsbettors use, you can find a list of terms here: (sports betting terms). A handicapper can never have too much information when investing their hard earned money so here are some tips to adhere to before placing your wagers.
GAMBLING ADVICE, HANDICAPPING TIPS AND INFO
Handicapping games – Look for as much information as possible. With the advent of the internet there are many sites that carry pertinent information that relates to the outcome of the games we wager on. Keep an eye out for personnel changes, coaching changes, suspensions, injuries, weather, returning starters (NCAA), line moves, and more!
Don’t put a lot of weight into trends and angles - The past is the past and very few trends lead to what will happen in the future.
Don't be afraid to bet on bad teams – Many teams that are perceived to be really bad by the public have great value with the point spread. Remember that spreads that look too good to be true usually are! The long term winner will realize this and not be afraid to back these bad teams!
Sometimes the best wager is one that you pass on – Don’t feel like you have to wager on every game. Sometimes there is no edge and the best thing to do is to save your money for a different opportunity.
Don’t be swayed by your heart - You may have a natural bias towards your favorite team that will keep you from making a smart wager. However, you may have a better feel for these teams to so know if you can handicap them rationally.
Look for big cards - The bookmaker is forced to put out a spread/odds on every game. Big cards provide great opportunities for the bettor because they (the bookmaker) are forced to make a line and you have the advantage in that you can pick and choose. The "small schools" may afford some good opportunities as there's not much info available and small school lines are less researched by the books because they know their not going to get a ton of action on those games. There are some very sharp bettors who focus solely on these types of games because they can collect more info than the bookmaker.
Good advice - Do not play the whole board! – It is fun to have a lot of action but the vigorish you must play will make it almost impossible to win. Be selective with your wagers and only make wagers that have a good chance of winning.
Stick with situations in which you have "the edge" – Find situations where you can focus on so that teams you are wagering on have an edge.
Know teams starting lineups, injuries, and weather situations - This info can be key! You don’t want to wager on the New England Patriots and then find out that Tom Brady is sitting out!
Steer clear of Teasers and Parlays! – These are the wagers that make the bookmaker smile. More than 70% of teasers wins would have won anyway! You’re just throwing away juice! Besides, it's hard enough to win one game much less two!
TV games... - The bookmaker will inflate lines on the big nationally televised TV game. They know what games are nationally televised and they know that most gamblers prefer to root for the favorite! The line on the favorite and the over will usually be inflated. You will be much better off sticking to dogs and unders in TV games! Try it, you'll be glad you did!
Keep an eye on line moves but don't make a play based on a line move – Watch the lines and take note of the line moves. Check to see if you are missing out on a key player injury that is causing the move. Do not follow the line move blindly!
Find out what teams play more motivated off a loss – Know how teams react in different situations. Many teams come back more motivated after a loss. This angle can alert you to teams that are good value plays.
Use Posting Forums to gain information – You can find some great regional information, betting strategies and various thoughts from the posters on the internet. If you are following a certain handicapper make sure you know their track record. A capper on a hot streak is sure to have a regression so be aware of that. If you know a poster who has a proven track record but has been in a slump, watch for him to turn it around and then jump on the bandwagon!
Take news info with a grain of salt - ESPN is fun to watch but it's media and they are telling you what you want to hear! Many plays are good go against plays because of all the media hype. The bookmaker knows that everyone is watching this and will adjust the line accordingly!
Watch line movement! - If you see that the gambling public is all over a particular team and the line is going to the other way, investigate! Something is up and sharp action may be on the other side. This can be a great indicator of a good value!
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Trends - There's tons of trends on the internet but most are crap. We post valuable stats that actually matter and that can increase your winning percentage.
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