2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon Picks

2010 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Odds, Picks, Analysis – Handicapping Churchill Downs
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com

Race 5, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up, Distance: 1 ¾-miles, Purse: $500,000 Surface:  Dirt

The Breeders’ Cup Marathon has only been run twice, both times at Santa Anita and both times won by Europeans getting first-time Lasix. 2010 marks the first time the Marathon will be run on dirt, but we’re still giving the edge to the Europeans, who have daily training regimens geared towards stamina and generally have lighter racing schedules leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.

Our primary handicapping factors for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon will be a demonstrated ability to handle the 1 ¾-mile distance, or at least 1 ¼-miles and a stamina pedigree.

The major prep races for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon include the Greenwood Cup at Philadelphia Park, the Cougar II at Del Mar, the Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes and the Diamond Stakes at Dundalk in Ireland. 2009 Marathon winner Man of Iron and 2008 Marathon winner Muhannak both prepped in the Diamond Stakes. Man of Iron, a 3-year-old, used the Diamond Stakes as his second last prep, finishing fourth, while 4-year-old Muhannak won the Diamond Stakes as his final prep for the Marathon. At this point it does not appear that any of the runners exiting the Diamond Stakes will compete in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Marathon, but there is another intriguing European to consider.

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Tastahill was an impressive pace-setting winner going a grueling two miles in the Newmarket Jockey Club Cup on October 16 over the turf, and win or lose we think he’ll be the fittest horse in the Marathon if he enters. We’re hoping he handles the Churchill Downs dirt, because the price should be right. A. U. Miner (14-1) upset favorite and fellow Marathon contender Alcomo by a neck in the Greenwood Cup going 1 ½-miles on the dirt on July 17. Temple City used his lone speed advantage to win the Cougar II going 1 ½-miles over synthetic Polytrack on July 31 as the 6/5 favorite, and also has a nice stamina pedigree that includes Dynaformer on top and Danzig on the bottom. Favored Eldaafer won the Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes by a half length after stalking wide going 1 ½-miles over Polytrack and also has a stamina-laden pedigree, being by A.P. Indy out of a Tabasco Cat mare.

Giant Oak has been made the tentative early favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon despite the fact that he hasn’t won in 2010. In his most recent start on October 2, Giant Oak finished second beaten three quarters of a length to lone speed horse Redding Colliery in the Hawthorne Gold Cup going 1 ¼-miles on dirt, with fellow Marathon contender A.U. Miner a neck back in third. Giant Oak has run some decent races at Churchill Downs in the past, which probably led to his early favoritism, but we’re not so sure he’s worth a short price.

Other possible contenders include Will I Am, winner of the Jamaica Handicap; Bright Horizon, a winner over two miles in Ireland in his most recent start; Precision Break, who finished 16th in his most recent start in England; Falling Knife and Atoned, a neck apart and second and third respectively beaten half a length by Eldaafer in the Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes. Below follow possible 2010 Breeders’ Cup Marathon entrants with early morning-line odds.

Make sure to check back at Predictem.com before the Breeders’ Cup for updates and final picks.

Possible 2010 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Contenders with Early Morning-Line Odds

Horse (Odds)

Giant Oak (4-1)

A.U. Miner (9/2)

Tastahill (5-1)

Alcomo (6-1)

Bright Horizon (6-1)

Eldaafer (6-1)

Temple City (8-1)

Prince Will I Am (10-1)

Falling Knife (15-1)

Precision Break (15-1)

Atoned (20-1)

Good Luck with your wagers!

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