Breeders' Cup Picks (Friday Races)

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2010 Breeders’ Cup Picks, Analysis and Longshots for Friday, November 5 – Churchill Downs
by Kenneth Strong, Breeders' Cup Handicapper, Predictem.com

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Breeders’ Cup Marathon Picks, Analysis and Superfecta Longshots

Race 5, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up, Distance: 1 ¾-miles, Purse: $500,000 Surface:  Dirt

1.      Bright Horizon

2.      Awesome Gem

3.      Prince Will I Am

4.      Gabriel’s Hill

Breeders’ Cup Marathon Superfecta Longshots: Eldaafer, Precision Break, Million Seller

There’s no question that Awesome Gem is the class of the Breeders’ Cup Marathon field, but we’re not sure he can get the distance, and despite the fact that he’s been facing much better he’s certainly not in top form. We’ll be using him as a key in the superfecta in all four spots but playing European Bright Horizon to win. Conditioned by four-time Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Aidan O’Brien, who won the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Marathon with Man of Iron getting first time Lasix, Bright Horizon is in good form coming off a win in a two-mile race in Ireland. The only question is whether he will handle dirt.

Prince Will I Am has looked good winning his last two including the Grade 1 Jamaica Handicap, but we’re playing him more on pedigree than anything else. Gabriel’s Hill will try and steal the race as he makes his second start off the layoff with jockey angle play Julien Leparoux in the saddle. At 20-1 on the morning line, we’re just hoping he hangs on for a piece in the first superfecta of the day.

The remainder of the field is closely matched in a rather wide open race. Any of the remaining runners could finish in the money, so we will be using some all legs on our superfecta tickets, but we will also be including Million Seller based on her 2009 win at two miles, Eldaafer based on good form that includes two wins in a row - the last at 1 ½-miles, and Precision Break, an obscure European getting first time Lasix. He will be fit and no one will be betting on him based on his 16th-place finish going 2 ¼-miles in his last start, but he has won at the distance.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Picks, Analysis and Superfecta Longshots

Race 6, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 2-Year-Old Fillies, Distance: 1 Mile, Purse: $1,000,000 Surface:  Turf

1.      Winter Memories

2.      Kathmanblu

3.      Tale Untold

4.      Together

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Superfecta Longshots: Quiet Oasis, Flood Plain, Wyomia, New Normal, More Than Real

Winter Memories is the favorite and the now horse in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf. Her powerful win in a key prep for this race, the Miss Grillo, was impressive and she came right back to work a bullet for this race. Her trainer James Toner has a first and a third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf from only five starters. Kathmanblu is another who comes off an impressive victory in the Jessamine at Keeneland, but she will be a much better price. Like Winter Memories, Kathmanblu looks like she is ready to move forward off an impressive win. Her trainer Kenneth McPeek has never won a Breeders’ Cup race but does have four seconds and four thirds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races from 15 starters overall. Leparoux in the saddle will also help her chances.

Tale Untold is a European getting first-time Lasix who finished a workmanlike second beaten only a nose in the Tattersalls Millions Fillies in her last, and left classier rival Together a neck back in third. Her best race puts her close on fitness and class. Together will probably take some money and certainly has some talent, but she veered out in her last race, the Tattersals Millions, and we’re wondering of that was a result of too many races in a short span. She has the class and talent, but she might be over the top.

Superfecta longshots we like include: Still developing European filly Quiet Oasis, trained by Brian Meehan, who won the Breeders’ Cup Turf with Red Rocks in 2006. Quiet Oasis gets top jock Frankie Dettori, who has nine Breeders’ Cup winners to his credit. Top last race Beyer Figure earner Wyomia, who romped on synthetic in the Grade 3 Mazarine at Woodbine in her last, and fellow speed threat New Normal, who sports the second best last race Beyer Speed Figure on turf, accomplished in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine as the lone speed. The second place finisher in the Natalma, More Than Real, could also rally for a piece here at a nice price, but a pace battle would help. And if you’re looking for a real long bomb, throw in forgotten European Flood Plain, trained by four-time Breeders’ Cup winning trainer John Gosden. Flood Plain has yet to prove her class, but her trainer won both the 2008 and 2009 Juvenile Turf. He must think he has something.

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Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Picks, Analysis and Superfecta Longshots

Race 7, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up, Fillies and Mares, Distance: 7 furlongs, Purse: $1,000,000 Surface:  Dirt

1.      Evening Jewel

2.      Sara Louise

3.      Rightly So

4.      Switch

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Superfecta Longshots: Gabby’s Golden Gal, Sweet August Moon, Champagne d’Oro

The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint is our favorite race on Friday’s Card simply because we think we might be able to make a big score with overlay longshots. While we have great respect for morning-line favorite and speed horse Rightly So, we think there’s a chance she could get pressure up front after breaking from Post 13. We’re going to try to beat her with two angle-play horses, maybe three.

Evening Jewel is a router with speed who comes into this race off a third place finish in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland going 1 1/8-miles on the turf. She was beaten by the very talented filly Harmonious in that race but had won three in a row prior to that. Her lifetime record of 6-5-1 from 13 starts at four different tracks says she comes to battle every time and she was beaten only a nose by Ladies’ Classic favorite Blind Luck in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs this spring. But what we like best about Evening Jewell is the fact that she will likely be overlooked in the betting.

Sara Louise ran fourth in this race last year and now makes her second start off the layoff for three-time Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Saeed bin Suroor.  She has won at the distance, has won at Churchill Downs, and is capable of running Beyer Speed Figures of 103-104 on her best day. She looked like she was prepping in her last when she gained ground late in the Gallant Bloom at Belmont, she gets Frankie Dettori, and if she is going to run big now would be the time.

If Switch runs back to the race she ran against Zenyatta in her last start she has a definite shot to win this, but her workouts have been off, so we don’t know what to make of her. Her trainer John Sadler, is 0-for-19 at the Cup, but says this filly will be ready to run her best on race day.

Gabby’s Golden Gal hasn’t run since January 31, when she won the seven-furlong Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap at Santa Anita, but she has been working very well for seven-time Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Bob Baffert, who won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Sprint with Midnight Lute off a similar layoff. Champagne d’ Oro’s win in the seven- furlong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga two starts back would put her close with these and she has a nice recent bullet work at Churchill Downs. Sweet August Moon is a Grade 2 winner at seven furlongs, has a bullet workout at Churchill Downs and will be a huge price.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Picks, Analysis and Superfecta Longshots

Race 8, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 2-Year-Old Fillies, Distance: 1 1/16-miles, Purse: $2,000,000 Surface:  Dirt

1.      A Z Warrior

2.      Harlan’s Ruby

3.      Theysken’s Theor

4.      Tell a Kelly

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Superfecta Longshots: Delightful Mary, Believe in A.P.

Although her Beyer Speed Figures don’t quite match up with the top figs in here we’re going to go with A Z Warrior based on the fact that she won a key prep for the Juvenile Fillies, the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont, with something left in the tank. Her trainer Bob Baffert has also won seven Breeders’ Cup races including the Juvenile Fillies twice. Longshot Harlan’s Ruby is an angle play based on her last race, the Grade 1 Alchibiades at Keeneland, in which she was bottled up and under a hold until late. When she finally did get clear she finished willingly yet wasn’t fully used up. We think she could be sitting on a big race at a great price and her trainer Kenneth McPeek has finished second four times and third four times in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races.

European Theysken’s Theory finished third beaten 1 ½-lengths in the tough Group 1Fillies Mile at Ascot and while she wasn’t good enough to beat undefeated White Moonstone and classy Together that day with her best try, she does appear to have some class and she will be fit. She also gets first-time Lasix and Frankie Dettori. Tell a Kelly was our original first pick in here but she hasn’t worked well, drew a wide post and her trainer John Sadler is 0-for19 in the Breeders’ Cup. He says Tell a Kelly will be ready on race day, but we’re just not all that confident any more. Based on her good second-place finish beaten half a length in a key prep, the Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita, Tell a Kelly is the horse to beat. Make sure you keep that in mind when structuring your tickets.

Delightful Mary is an interesting shipper from Woodbine who comes into this race off a good effort chasing lone speed Wyomia in the Grade 3 Mazarine. She couldn’t gain on that one in the drive, but she did give her best to gain one of the highest last race Beyer Speed Figures in the field at 86, she came back with a bullet five-eighths work at Churchill Downs and she gets the services of jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, who knows how to win at Churchill Downs. Believe in A.P. is a total flyer based on her romping 12 ¾-length win at Philadelphia Park going a mile and 70 yards in her last and the fact that her trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. has won three Breeders’ Cup races from 12 starters. Jockey Garret Gomez also has nine Breeders’ Cup wins including the Juvenile Fillies in 2007 with Indian Blessing.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Picks, Analysis and Superfecta Longshots

Race 9, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 3-and-Up, Fillies and Mares, Distance: 1 3/8-miles, Purse: $2,000,000 Surface:  Turf

1.      Midday

2.      Plumania

3.      Red Desire

4.      Harmonious

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Superfecta Longshots:  Hibaayeb, Keertana

There’s no question that 2009 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf  winner Midday is the horse to beat again this year and she might even be in better shape this time. Midday will be a key on many tickets and justifiably so. She’s won three Group 1 races in a row coming up to this race, she’s proven at the distance and in her last she gamely measured fellow Filly and Mare Turf entrant Plumania to win the Group 1 Prix Vermeille in France going 1 ½-miles by three-quarters of a length over soft turf. While Midday decided to skip the Arc de Triomphe, Plumania ventured into that race and got trounced, finishing 17th of 20. She is a Group 1 winner in France going 1 ½ miles however, she’s fit, and she has sharp four-time Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Andre Fabre at the helm.

Japanese shipper Red Desire makes her second start off the layoff and second start in North America after a good prep third place finish in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont. That race came off a six-month layoff and she was only beaten three-quarters of a length while tiring late. We expect her to improve. The sleeper in here is Harmonious. She is nowhere near as good as we think she might get later in her career but it’s clear she has plenty of upside after her romping 4 ¼-length win in the  Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland in her last going 1 1/8-mile on the turf. She’s won going 1 ¼-miles and she’s trained by Zenyatta’s conditioner and three-time Breeders’ Cup winner John Shirreffs. Her one weakness is that she may not be as battle-hardened fit as the Europeans.

Hibaayeb will probably be overlooked in the Filly and Mare Turf, but her trainer Saeed bin Suroor has won three Breeders’ Cup races, she’s a Grade 2 winner going 1 ½-miles and she comes into this race off a good one-length win in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon going a 1 ¼-miles on the turf at Santa Anita. She was getting first-time Lasix for that race and we may not have seen the best of her yet. Keertana is a Grade 3 winner at the distance on the turf but more importantly she loves the Churchill Downs turf, having compiled a record of 3-2-1 from seven starts there. At 30-1 on the morning line with a trainer who won the Ladies’ Classic her in 1994 with One Dreamer, she’s certainly worth using in all the exotics.

Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic Picks, Analysis and Superfecta Longshots

Race 10, Churchill Downs, Friday, November 5, 2010

Age: 3-and-Up, Fillies and Mares, Distance: 1 1/8-miles, Purse: $2,000,000 Surface:  Dirt

1.      Blind Luck

2.      Life at Ten

3.      Havre de Grace

4.     Malibu Prayer

Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic Superfecta Longshots:  Acoma, Unrivalled Belle

Blind Luck is the hardest trying horse in the Ladies’ Classic but the problem is she likes to make it too close for comfort and she comes from way out of it. She’s 1-for-1 at the distance and that win came at Churchill Downs in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks this spring, in which she defeated fellow Ladies’ Classic entrant Havre de Grace by a nose. Havre de Grace beat Blind Luck by a neck in their latest meeting in the Cotillion at Philadelphia Park, but the pace scenario should be slightly different this time.

Not only does Havre de Grace pick up eight pounds off her win over Blind Luck, she also breaks from wide post 11, and wide posts have traditionally not done well in this race. We expect her to press outside speed horses Malibu Prayer and blinkers-on Acting Happy, make a bid in the stretch and then succumb to the ralliers.

Life at Ten should get a great trip stalking the leaders from the inside, she comes off a relatively easy win over Unrivalled Belle in the 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont and she’s three-for-three at the distance. We’re just not sure he has the killer instinct required to win these kinds of races – where other horses try all the way to the wire.

The Ladies’ Classic often produces a longshot winner and our favorite in that department for this race is Acoma, who is two-for-two at Churchill Downs and 1-for-1 at the distance coming off a rallying win in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland over fellow Ladies’ Classic entrant Milwaukee Appeal. With a perfect trip behind the speed.

Unrivalled Belle could also make the superfecta, as long as she doesn’t move to early.

If one of the speed horses gets loose in here they could go all the way and if the track is favoring inside runners that could also throws a wrench into Blind Luck’s plans. In what could be one of the toughest races in the Breeders’ Cup we’ll be using all in our multiple-race wagers and hoping for an unforeseen longshot.

Don’t forget to check back for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup picks before the races tomorrow! (Posted on our horse racing main page by 11AM EST!

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