Kentucky Derby Contenders

2010 Kentucky Derby Contenders Update - February 16, 2010
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com

Caracortado was impressive winning Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes G2 at Santa Anita to remain perfect at 5-for-5, leaving hotshots Tiz Chrome and American Lion in his wake just as we predicted here at Predictem.com. Also as predicted, Caracortado paid a smashing $11 to win as one of the best overlay plays of the year to date. The former claimer sat just off the pace set by the favored Tiz Chrome and forced by second choice American Lion before blowing by and opening up to win by 1 ¾-lengths over Dave in Dixie while recording the fastest time of the Santa Anita meeting, 1:41.75, for the 1 1/16-mile distance. Caracortado was given a 97 Beyer Speed Figure for the win. He has the right running style to win the Kentucky Derby and he doesn’t look like he’s peaked yet. Another class raise beckons.

Favored Sidney’s Candy got back on the Derby trail with a 4 ¼-length victory over Tiny Woods in the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes G2 at Santa Anita on Monday while second choice Quiet Invader finished 10 lengths back in fifth and showed little interest. Sidney’s Candy was avenging a comeback loss to Tiny Woods on December 30, when he was sent off at odds of $0.60 on the dollar only to finish a short fourth. There were no mistakes this time and it was clear Sidney’s Candy needed his start prior to the San Vicente. Tiny Woods attempted to go with Sidney’s Candy early under rider Victor Espinoza but Joe Talamo was having no part of it and made sure he asked for just enough to keep Sidney’s Candy in front by a length until the stretch, when he put away Tiny Woods for good. Is he a Derby horse? We’ll have to see if he can rate and pounce going a route of ground against better horses first, because he won’t be winning the Derby with Monday’s running style if a few others like Rule have anything to say about it.

Rule won his fourth straight in wire-to-wire fashion on Saturday, making all the pace in the in the Sam F. Davis G3 at Tampa Bay Downs going 1 1/16-miles. The even-money favorite did it the hard way too, putting away one rival on the front end before shaking off another and opening up in the stretch to win by three lengths.He earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Like Sidney’s Candy, it’s difficult to tell at this stage whether Rule will be able to rate and pounce on good horses going a mile and a quarter, but he does look like he has some quality and toughness to him.

While some analysts were pointing at a few ralliers in the weekend stakes that might develop into Kentucky Derby horses, we didn’t see anything that really stood out.  Below is our early Top-10 list for the 2010 Kentucky Derby, but there will be many changes in the weeks ahead with the beginning of the longer classier races. We’ll start adding some additional details and comments to our top contenders in the coming weeks.

2010 Kentucky Derby Top 10 as of February 16, 2010

1. Buddy’s Saint

2. Lookin at Lucky

3. Caracortado

4. Eskendereya

5. Super Saver

6. Jackson Bend

7. Dave in Dixie

8. Stay Put

9. Rule

10. Vale of York

Upcoming Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Believe it or not, there are six Kentucky Derby preps this Saturday, February 20 including the Southwest Stakes G3 at Oaklawn Park; Risen Star Stakes G2 at Fair Grounds; El Camino Real Derby G3 at Golden Gate; Fountain of Youth Stakes G2 and Hutcheson Stakes G2 Gulfstream Park, and the Turf Paradise Derby.

We’ll be concentrating on the Fountain of Youth Stakes as a class prep for the Derby, but will be looking for anything extraordinary in the remaining five Derby preps. More on Saturday…

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