Travers Stakes Picks

2010 Travers Picks and Analysis
by Kenneth Strong, Professional Horse Handicapper, Predictem.com

141st Running of the Shadwell Travers Stakes G1

Distance: 1 1/4-miles Surface: Dirt Purse: $1 million

Track: Saratoga Racecourse, Race 12, Saturday, August 28, 2010

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Travers Stakes Picks and Analysis

1. Trappe Shot
2. Fly Down
3. First Dude
4. A Little Warm

Travers Superfecta Longshot – Admiral Alex

If you can pick the right horse there’s a very good chance you’ll get a great price in the 141st renewal of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday August 28, 2010, and we’ll be going against at least one of the favorites in the win spot.

A well-matched field of 11, some battle-hardened veterans and others short on seasoning but long on talent will slug it out over a mile and a quarter at the graveyard of favorites on Saturday and anything could happen – which means the superfecta and other exotics could pay big. What are the chances we could match our 2010 Haskell picks, in which we nailed the superfecta straight? We’re hoping!

From post position out with morning-line odds the Travers Stakes includes Jim Dandy runner-up Miner’s Reserve (12-1), Haskell Invitational runner-up Trappe Shot (4-1), impressive maiden breaker Admiral Alex (12-1), Preakness Stakes runner-up First Dude (8-1), Jim Dandy winner and morning-line favorite A Little Warm (7/2), Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box (10-1), Pegasus winner Afleet Express (6-1), Dwyer Stakes winner Fly Down (8-1), Mike Lee winner Friend or Foe (15-1), Withers Stakes winner Afleet Again (30-1) and Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (6-1).

Win or lose we’ll be using one of our favorite betting angles in the 2010 Travers and going with second choice Trappe Shot to win.

Conditioned by Kiaran McLaughlin, Trappe Shot fits the angle of needing a race when moving up in class and improving when he meets that same class again. Trappe Shot was making his first start against serious horses in the Haskell Invitational on August 1 and ran into a razor sharp buzz saw in the form of Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky. Trappe Shot followed Lookin At Lucky around the track in the Haskell and gave his best in the stretch to finish second beaten four lengths, but in the process he also defeated the more seasoned First Dude, Ice Box, Afleet Again and Super Saver.

The short comment in Trappe Shot’s past performance for the Haskell indicate that he had to wait a bit in the race, but that didn’t cost him the win. He was never going to beat Lookin At Lucky that day. Now that he’s had a race against the best 3-year-olds in training however, we’re expecting him to move forward in his second try at this class level. While the fact that his connections were also thinking about entering in the shorter King’s Bishop concerns us a little, we’ll take a shot that his broodmare sire Private Account will provide him with enough stamina to get him home in a race that should set up for his late run under regular rider Alan Garcia. Trappe Shot has run at Saratoga once before, finishing fifth with an excuse in his first lifetime start after stumbling at the break. At morning-line odds of 4-1 he’s the pick.

Fly Down is trained by Nick Zito, who won the Travers in 2004 with Birdstone, but we like the late-running son of Mineshaft for a few reasons besides his trainer. Fifth beaten 4 ½-lengths in the Jim Dandy, he was running late in that race when forced to check, which may or may not have cost him second money. The point is he was running at the end of the mile and an eighth and he’ll get another eighth of a mile to work with in the Travers. He appears to be better the further he goes, as evidenced by his second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes at 1 ½- miles on June 5, and he’s also proven carrying 126 pounds over a distance of ground, which is something neither Trappe Shot nor morning-line favorite A Little Warm has ever done. Nick Zito also saddles both Ice Box and Miner’s Reserve in this year’s Travers, and the latter should take some of the sting out of classy speed horse First Dude to set up the late run of both Fly Down and Ice Box.

First Dude will be getting blinkers for the first time in the Travers, which should have him vying for the lead with Miner’s Reserve throughout most of the race. Even without blinkers First Dude is the class speed of the race and he always gives his best, but he just doesn’t seem to be able to dig in late to get the job done. It’s not that he doesn’t try - he just seems physically in capable of taking it to the next level at crunch time. He had open leads in both the Preakness and Belmont but succumbed late in both races to finish second and third respectively. Still, he is proven at a distance and there’s no question he can handle the 126 pound weight assignment that all starters will carry in the Travers. If he’s loose on the lead could he go all the way at 8-1? Yes he could, but it’s more likely he’ll put away Miner’s Mark and hang on for a piece under top jock Ramon Dominguez.

A Little Warm has done little wrong in a career that has seen him finish first or second in eight of nine career starts and he does have a win at Saratoga to his credit. In his last start on July 31 he wore down Miner’s Reserve to win the Jim Dandy by 1 ¾-lengths. His trainer Tony Dutrow is currently winning with 27 percent of his starters and is always a contender. But the Travers is not only a step up in class for A Little Warm, he’ll also be asked to carry 11 more pounds than he did in his Jim Dandy win and six more than he’s ever carried to victory. While weight is normally a non-factor in handicapping, when it comes to long distances against graded stakes horses it can make the difference between winning and losing by a neck or a nose. A Little Warm figures to sit just off the pace and move to challenge somewhere on the turn for home, but First Dude has proven to be very tough to get by with or without pace pressure, and he should make A Little Warm work a lot harder than he did in the Jim Dandy.

Our longshot play for the superfecta will be recent maiden breaker Admiral Alex, although from a fitness and class perspective he appears overmatched in here at this stage of his career. In his only lifetime start at Saratoga on July 31 he won a mile and an eighth maiden race on the dirt by a length over some decent horses. He does have some stamina in his pedigree, being by Afleet Alex out of a Kingmambo mare, and his running style might allow him to sit just off the pace and rally for a piece despite the class raise. Both trainer Leon Blusiewicz and jockey Kent Desormeaux actually think Admiral Alex has a chance to win the Travers, which is odd considering the extreme class raise, but Desormeaux did win the Travers Stakes in 2009 aboard Summer Bird, so we’ll take their word for it and throw him into our Travers superfectas.

Good Luck!

2010 Travers Stakes Entries, Post Positions, Odds and Jockeys

1.  Miner’s Reserve (12-1) Cohen

2.  Trappe Shot (4-1) Garcia

3.  Admiral Alex (12-1) Desormeaux

4.  First Dude (8-1) Dominguez

5.  A Little Warm (7/2) J R Velazquez

6.  Ice Box (10-1) Leparoux

7.  Afleet Express (6-1) Castellano

8.  Fly Down (8-1) Lezcano

9.  Friend Or Foe (15-1) Maragh

10.  Afleet Again (30-1) C Velasquez

11.  Super Saver (6-1) Borel

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