Other Sports: NFL College Football NBA Basketball College Basketball Baseball NHL Hockey Soccer MMA Boxing Nascar Golf Online Casinos

How to Bet


2016 Kentucky Derby Picks

2016 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis

Nyquist still the best bet at an overlay price in 142nd Kentucky Derby

2016 Kentucky Derby-G1, Race 12, Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 7, 2016
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/4-miles, Dirt, Purse: $2 million

Kentucky Derby Picks

1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerator
3. Creator
4. Gun Runner
5. Mo Tom - Bet your Kentucky Derby picks using your credit card and get a 50% bonus up to $250 in FREE cash at Bovada Racebook!

Kentucky Derby Analysis

We rarely like to bet favorites but Nyquist will be too tough to resist in the 2016 Kentucky Derby if he goes to post at anything close to his 3-1 morning line odds.

The only undefeated runner in this year's Kentucky Derby field, Nyquist always seems to be getting knocked for something. They say he's not fast enough. They say he won't get the distance. We're not buying either.

The undefeated Uncle Mo colt simply does what he has to do to win, and while there may be faster horses on numbers in the 142nd Kentucky Derby, none of them can say they know how to win. Nyquist is a perfect 7-for-7, and he's not some cheap speed horse that needs the lead. He's likely to get the exact same trip outside/wide trip he got in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-G1 last year, move to the lead somewhere from early to mid stretch and then dig in to hold off the ralliers.

Nyquist will have to be a little careful, as the long stretch at Churchill Downs can be very unkind to horses that move to the lead too early. While he may be a better horse than tough-as-nails competitor Gun Runner, who won the Risen Star-G2 and Louisiana Derby-G2 in his last two starts from just off the pace, Nyquist does not want to battle with that horse too early on the turn for home. That would set the race up for one of the out-of-the-clouds closers.

The race sets up with Danzing Candy and Outwork trying for the early lead followed closely by Gun Runner, Destin, Mohaymen, Nyquist and possibly Shagaf in the second flight. Oscar Nominated, Whitmore, Tom's Ready, Mor Spirit and Majesto make up the third flight, and then it's back to the deep closers, some of whom could make up the Kentucky Derby Superfecta at nice prices, and maybe even win if the pace collapses.

The deep closers in the race probably have the best shot to upset Nyquist if they can work out decent trips, which is always tough in a 20-horse field. This group includes Trojan Nation, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, Mo Tom, My Man Sam, Exaggerator, and Brody's Cause.

Of the deep closers we like Exaggerator best, despite the fact that he had everything in his favor when he won the muddy Santa Anita Derby-G1 after the front runners wilted. We like Exaggerator not just because of that race, but because in the race before that, the San Felipe-G2, he made a big move and flattened out late. The trick with Exaggerator is to time his move perfectly so he's in full gear in deep stretch. If Desormeaux can do that he has a shot to win, and he should get an okay outside trip from post 11.

We liked Creator in the Rebel Stakes two starts ago when he finished a wide third, and he did come back to win the Arkansas Derby-G1 in his last start. He has no choice but to drop well back early from post three and try to find his way through traffic late to get into the Kentucky Derby Superfecta. Suddenbreakingnews is in the exact same boat from post two. He should rally late, likely on the outside, and could make it into the superfecta.

Brody's Cause won the Blue Grass-G1 in his last start but our guess is that he'll be a little overrated in here. He should be able to stay out of trouble from post 19, but he'll have to improve. My Man Sam is a fresh horse for sharp trainer Chad Brown and gets top rider Irad Ortiz Jr. so he could also rally late for a small share of the superfecta at huge odds.

The trip-horse jackpot sleeper is Mo Tom, who comes off absolutely brutal trips in both the Risen Star-G2 and the Louisiana Derby-G2 under jockey Corey Lanerie, who will again be aboard in the Derby, and this time from terrible post four. It's impossible to tell how good Mo Tom is after being stopped cold twice in a row the stretch, but he was definitely making good moves. He also has top trainer Tom Amoss in his corner. If he were to get a perfect trip inside and finally get through this time, we could see him slipping into the exactor, but that's why it's called gambling. At 20-1 on the morning line, you're betting that he finally gets a clean trip and also that he's good enough.

We'll stick with the proven commodities and bet Nyquist to win and place if we can get 3-1 on him. We'll also take him top and bottom in our exactas with Exaggerator, Creator, Gun Runner and Mo Tom. We'll add a few more horses for our triactors and include Suddenbreakingnews, Trojan Nation, My Man Sam, Whitmore, Shagaf, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Majesto and Brody's Cause.

We'll also be playing Nyquist first and second in our trifectas and superfectas with our second and third choices and alternating them with ALL in the third and fourth spots just in case something crazy happens.

And it always does in the Kentucky Derby.

Free Picks

Santa Anita Picks - (Currently Covering) Free daily picks from one of North American's most popular race tracks!

Belmont Picks - (Currently Covering) Free daily Belmont Park predictions from the winningest horse handicapper on the net!

Aqueduct Picks - (Currently Out of Season) Bet like a Pro! Take Kenny's picks to the track with you and increase your odds of winning!

Del Mar Picks - (Currently Out of Season) Kenneth gives his award winning race day predictions for all the races at Del Mar!

Saratoga Picks - (Currently Out of Season) Get free daily predictions each day of the racing season from the best pro horse handicapper on the planet!

Los Alamitos Picks - (Currently Not Covering) Professional horse racing handicapper Ken Strong gives Predictem readers his take on the races at Los Alamitos!


Bovada - Bet on horse races using your Credit Card and get a 50% bonus up to $250 in free money!

Weekly Rebates - Find out where you can get weekly rebates of up to 5% on your action! Not net losses, we're talking 5% back on your total risked amount!

Kentucky Derby Futures - Take long odds on your favorite horse way before the Derby starts and get paid HUGE for correctly selecting the winning horse!

Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby Betting - K. Strong dives deep into the betting and handicapping aspects of the Kentucky Derby.

Preakness Stakes Betting - The second jewel of the Triple Crown!

Belmont Stakes Betting - The 3rd jewel of the Triple Crown and logest of the trio at 1.5 miles long.

Understanding Betting on Horses - How does it work? We cover the bases plus explain exotic bets.

About Kenneth Strong - Get tips, advice and award winning information from one of the nation's best horse handicappers!