Other Sports: NFL College Football NBA Basketball College Basketball Baseball NHL Hockey Soccer MMA Boxing Nascar Golf Online Casinos

How to Bet


2017 Florida Derby Picks and Analysis

2017 Florida Derby-G1, Race 14, Gulfstream Park, Saturday, April 1, 2017
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8-miles, Dirt, Purse: $1,000,000

Florida Derby Picks

Florida Derby Analysis

Despite his disadvantageous wide post Gunnevera is still the obvious horse to beat in the 66th running of the Florida Derby on Saturday. You canít bet against him with any confidence so we'll be hoping the wide post ups the odds just enough to make a win bet on him at 6/5.

In his last start Gunnevera swooped the field on the turn and rolled home to win the Fountain of Youth-G2 at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/16-miles. The extra furlong of the Florida Derby should present no problem for the son of 2011 Florida Derby winner Dialed In, who also happens to be out of an Unbridled mare. Unbridled won this race in 1990.

Gunnevera's numbers are improving, he has top jock Javier Castellano in the irons, and he rarely runs a bad race. In his first start this year he finished a good second to Irish War Cry after steadying on the turn for home, and he improved as expected to win the Fountain of Youth in his next start. The pick by many at this stage to win the Kentucky Derby, he's definitely the horse to beat. If you can get anything above even-money, he's the win play.


There should be enough pace pressure to set the race up for Gunnevera's late run, and unless the track is really favoring speed it will be tough for any horse to wire the field. The main speed horses are State of Honor, Always Dreaming and Three Rules. The latter showed some fight in his last and could take some starch out of the other speed horses on the turn for home despite looking like he doesn't want to go the distance of the Florida Derby.

Always Dreaming, another from the Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby assembly line, set a brutally slow pace in his last before romping away to win an N1X allowance race at the Florida Derby distance by four lengths at 1-9. He'll get the distance, and he did have something left in his last, but it's difficult to tell how much. Rider John Velazquez will help his chances on the class raise, but the pace should also be quicker here.

State of Honor finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his last after leading to the top of the stretch, but he looks like a one dimensional speed horse that basically runs off every race and has nothing left for the drive. He gets blinkers off for this race but should still be hooked up with Three Rules and Always Dreaming on the final turn just as Gunnevera is starting to get geared up for his run.

If the three speed horses cook themselves on the turn they could pave the way for a few longshots in the Florida Derby Superfecta. Despite the fact that most of the others look too slow, a perfect trip might help at least one of them to sneak into second or third at huge odds.

Based on that analysis we'll take Gunnevera on top in our superfectas and trifectas, with All in second and third with Always Dreaming, State of Honor and Three Rules. We'll also take Gunnevera on top with all in second and fourth with the three speed horses in third. If we can get a 50-1 shot home in second we should be able to make a decent profit.

And at 6/5 or better, we'll bet Gunnevera to win.

Good Luck!

Free Picks

Santa Anita Picks - (Currently Covering) Free daily picks from one of North American's most popular race tracks!

Aqueduct Picks - (Currently Covering) Bet like a Pro! Take Kenny's picks to the track with you and increase your odds of winning!

Del Mar Picks - (Currently Out of Season) Kenneth gives his award winning race day predictions for all the races at Del Mar!

Belmont Picks - (Currently Out of Season) Free daily Belmont Park predictions from the winningest horse handicapper on the net!

Saratoga Picks - (Currently Out of Season) Get free daily predictions each day of the racing season from the best pro horse handicapper on the planet!

Los Alamitos Picks - (Currently Not Covering) Professional horse racing handicapper Ken Strong gives Predictem readers his take on the races at Los Alamitos!


Bovada - Bet on horse races using your Credit Card and get a 50% bonus up to $250 in free money!

Weekly Rebates - Find out where you can get weekly rebates of up to 5% on your action! Not net losses, we're talking 5% back on your total risked amount!

Kentucky Derby Futures - Take long odds on your favorite horse way before the Derby starts and get paid HUGE for correctly selecting the winning horse!

Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby Betting - K. Strong dives deep into the betting and handicapping aspects of the Kentucky Derby.

Preakness Stakes Betting - The second jewel of the Triple Crown!

Belmont Stakes Betting - The 3rd jewel of the Triple Crown and logest of the trio at 1.5 miles long.

Understanding Betting on Horses - How does it work? We cover the bases plus explain exotic bets.

About Kenneth Strong - Get tips, advice and award winning information from one of the nation's best horse handicappers!