Belmont Stakes Betting

Big Brown Triple Crown a Bad Bet on Bum Foot in Belmont?
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com

Note: Check out the MUST SEE Free $100 bet offer in the middle of this article!

Big Brown will attempt to become only the 12th Triple Crown winner in history on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at Belmont Park in the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes – on a bad foot, at a distance further than he’s ever run before, over a surface he’s never raced on - at odds of 2-5. You’ll have to bet $100 to make $40. That sounds like terrible value. Maybe it would be better to bet against him.

What do the last 20 years of Belmont Stakes history say?

Favorites have won the Belmont Stakes 25 percent of the time. That’s below the overall industry average favorite win percentage of 29-33 percent. Big Brown is the favorite.

Strike one.

The Belmont Stakes has not been kind to speed horses. Commendable (2000) is the only horse in the last 20 years to wire the field. Horses that come from just off the pace have won the Belmont about 50 percent of the time. There isn’t a lot of speed in this year’s Belmont field and Big Brown could find himself on the lead by himself or at least forcing the pace. If Big Brown can rate 2-3 lengths off the pace in the Belmont he has a much better chance of winning, but history says if he ends up on the lead…

Strike two.

Big Brown has a quarter crack on his left front foot – that’s common knowledge. Is it serious? Who knows? His last workout indicates the foot is fine, but we all have memories of mighty Spectacular Bid stepping on a safety pin prior to the the 1979 Belmont Stakes and getting beat, his Triple Crown hopes dashed by horses that couldn’t warm him up when he was at his best. Big Brown will have to travel around the immensely long sweeping Belmont Park turn on a suspect left front foot.

Strike Three.

Need more negatives? Big Brown has never raced at Belmont Park. Will he handle “Big Sandy” on Saturday? His last five furlong workout says yes, but that wasn’t at a mile and a half. And on numbers, the Belmont Stakes favors horses who have recorded a new Beyer Speed Figure top in their race prior to the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown looks like a standout on numbers, but he regressed from a 109 Beyer Figure in the Kentucky Derby to a 100 in the Preakness. Of course, Big Brown had no competition in the Preakness and it may have been the easiest Preakness victory in history. He was being eased at the wire. But history doesn’t lie - which reminds us of a few more dubious points.

At a time when drugs are the scourge of the sport, Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow freely admits his horse is getting the steroid Winstrol once a month. Dutrow does not exactly have a spotless record when it comes to drugs. Among other suspensions and fines, he received a 60-day suspension for mepivacaine, a drug that basically allows sore horses to run without feeling any pain. Dutrow has routinely improved horses over the years, sometimes in spectacular fashion, and may have questioned how he does it.

Add to that the fact that Dutrow was fined for falsifying workouts on Queen’s Plate winner Wild Desert in 2005, after the owner admitted he had made over $100,000 betting on the horse, and you have to wonder about Big Brown’s foot problem again. Is it for real or is it just a smoke screen to get the odds up? And if the foot is bad will it be uncharacteristically good for the race?

Something just seems amiss here. And to mention Big Brown in the same sentence as the last three Triple Crown winners doesn’t feel right either. Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) were magnificent animals that proved their mettle in tough company. And no one could argue that Citation (1948), the last Triple Crown winner before those three, was also a special kind of animal as the owner of the modern day record (along with Cigar) for the most consecutive wins (16) in the highest level of company.

Big Brown has won all five of his lifetime starts over mediocre competition. That’s not his fault. But don’t you think that history, even nature, would require a horse to be something special, or do something extraordinary, in order to be rewarded with a Triple Crown?

Could Big Brown win the 2008 Triple Crown? Sure. Life isn’t always fair. The Laws of Compensation sometimes take a few generations to kick in. But there are just too many unanswered questions to make a serious bet on him at 2/5.

Of course, you might want to purchase a $2 win ticket as a souvenir, just in case Big Brown does become the 12th Triple Crown winner in history… even if they do decide to put an asterisk behind his name.

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