2017 Gotham Stakes Picks and Analysis
El Areeb the play if the price is right, but others enticing
2017 Gotham Stakes-G3, Race 8, Aqueduct, Saturday, March 4, 2017
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/16-miles, Dirt, Purse: $300,000
Gotham Stakes Picks
1. El Areeb
2. So Conflated
3. True Timber
3. J Boys Echo. Bet YOUR 2017 Gotham Stakes predictions using your credit card and get a 50% extra bonus added to your account at one of the web's biggest, oldest and most trusted horse betting sites: Bovada!
Gotham Stakes Analysis
El Areeb is the win play in the 2017 Gotham Stakes if you can get a decent price on him, but if he's overbet there are a few others in here that could be worth a play.
El Areeb has won four in a row including three stakes and has looked good doing it. And he has a versatile running style suitable to any pace scenario. Two starts ago he pressed the pace in the Jerome-G3 in the mud at Aqueduct and drew off to win by 11 1/4-lengths. In his last start in the Withers-G3 going 1 1/16-miles at Aqueduct, he rated just off the pace and again ran away from his field in the stretch to win by 4 1/4-lengths. Listed at 6/5 on the morning line that's probably more than a fair price if you can get it at post time.
There are three interesting horses with angles in the Gotham but they would have to be exceptional odds to warrant a win play. If El Areeb gets bet down to even money that would likely make the following more enticing.
True Timber actually ran a decent race in the Withers after stumbling at the break. He was rushed to take the lead under mild pressure and held well until El Areeb went by him approaching the eighth pole. He was no match for El Areeb when the running started on Withers day, but he did fight on for second, and he might have made it a lot closer without the stumble at the start. In that case he would have been three lengths in front and coasting. There's a reasonable chance True Timber could clear to the lead if he can outfoot Action Everyday early in the Gotham, and if he does he would at least be tougher to catch late. If you're a lone speed player he's your horse.
So Conflated looked good winning the $100,000 California Derby over the synthetic track at Golden Gate in his most recent start and he could be underestimated in here at morning-line odds of 8-1, especially if he handles the Aqueduct dirt. He tracked the pacesetters from the inside in the California Derby but was forced to wait for everyone to go by in early stretch before shifting out and showing some fight to take over late. Prior to his California Derby win he was beaten only a head in a seven-furlong Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita and he looks like he has some upside. He's moving up in class here but he's probably one of the fittest horses in the race and any kind of move forward would put him at least in the exactor.
Cloud Computing looks like he has some talent but he's another who is moving up in class and he has only one sprint start under his girth. He broke slowly in his lifetime debut going six furlongs at Aqueduct on February 11 and came running late to grind out the win at even money, but you just have to think he'll need at least one race on the stretch out while moving up in class. The last horse we'll mention is J Boys Echo, who seemed to be the wise guy horse in his first start off the layoff in the Withers. He stalked wide in that race behind El Areeb and couldn't stay with that one from late turn. He makes his second start off the layoff and could improve enough for a piece.
Both So Conflated and True Timber are possible plays at the right price, but El Areeb is the horse to beat. We'll take El Areeb over those two in the exacta and reverse it for a lesser amount. We'll also box all three in a smaller saver exacta and play all three in the trifectas and superfectas in first and second and first and third.
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