Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis

2011 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis

137th Running of the Kentucky Derby G1

Distance: 1 ¼-miles Surface: Dirt Purse: $2 million

Churchill Downs Race 11, Saturday May 7, 2011

by Kenneth Strong, Kentucky Derby Handicapper

There’s quite a bit of speed in this year’s Kentucky Derby, which makes the race wide open with numerous longshot angles. Shackleford, Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Pants On Fire and Soldat all like to race on or near the lead. The second flight of horses should take on the tiring speed horses on the turn and set the race up for the ralliers, so we went with horses that would close late. Below follow our main selections along with numerous longshots and angles. Look for the longshots with the best odds at post time and combine them with our top four selections and you might just hit the jackpot!

Main Kentucky Derby Selections

1. Dialed In

2. Mucho Macho Man

3. Archarcharch

4. Nehro

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Longshots with Angles

Derby Kitten - Strong finish in last, running style

Soldat – Poor trip in last, moves up on a wet track

Brilliant Speed – Good work, good finish in last, improving

Twice the Appeal – Jockey Calvin Borel

Master of Hounds – Pedigree

Santiva – Trouble in last

Midnight Interlude – Trainer Bob Baffert

Animal Kingdom – Pedigree, good finish in last, improving

We’re going with Dialed In as our pick for the 2011 Kentucky Derby despite the fact that many are downplaying his recent win in the Florida Derby. He’s only half a length from being undefeated in four career starts and he’s proven at Churchill Downs, having broken his maiden there in his career debut. His latest Beyer Speed Figures aren't quite as good as some in here, but he has the perfect late running style for this race and his trainer Nick Zito has won the Derby twice before with Strike the Gold (1991), and Go For Gin(1994).

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We weren’t really big fans of Mucho Macho Man before he won the Risen Star Stakes in his second start off a 60-day layoff, but he came back and turned in a gritty performance in the Louisiana Derby while missing a front shoe. He was only beaten three-quarters of a length in that race and the shoe problem could have been the difference. Mucho Macho Man will give his best and he has run some of the better numbers in this year’s Derby. He deserves a shot at redemption based on the lost shoe and the fact that he’s been working well and galloping long and strong leading up to the Derby.

Archarcharch is going to get bet off his neck win over “wise guy” horse Nehro in the Arkansas Derby. Proven over the Churchill Downs oval with a second place finish in his debut last year, Archarcharch received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his Arkansas Derby win and his running style should put him in good position just back of the speed horses for most of the race. He looks like a solid grinder, but he will have to overcome the dreaded Post 1 that did in Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky last year. If he can negotiate a perfect trip from the inside and get through in the stretch, he has a shot to win.

Nehro came from well back in the Arkansas Derby and was finishing fastest at the end of that race. In his race prior to the Arkansas Derby, the Louisiana Derby, he was closer to the pace and kept coming along the rail to finish second beaten a neck by speed horse Pants on Fire and a half a length in front of tough guy Mucho Macho Man. Nehro is light on seasoning with only five races under his belt, and could turn into one of those horses that always rallies and never gets there, but he certainly has to be used in all spots on your superfecta tickets based on the probable pace scenario of this year’s Derby.

Derby Kitten was visually impressive winning the Lexington in his last and at 30-1 on the morning line we love his chances to slip into the Derby superfecta. He’s proven he’s capable of eating up ground late on synthetic and turf and this race should set up perfectly for him. His odds will be a reflection of whether he can handle the dirt and the class raise, but he’s definitely going on our tickets as a live longshot with a good trainer in Michael Maker.

Pants on Fire and Shackleford both add to the early pace of this year’s Derby and it’s difficult to see either one of them being able to withstand the intense early pressure and stick around late. We liked Pants on Fire as a longshot at 19-1 in the Risen Star and he ran up the track when unable to get the lead. He then came back and pressed the early pace in the Louisiana Derby before opening up in the stretch and holding on. Of course we missed him at 6-1 in that race. Shackleford rebounded off a terrible performance in the Fountain of Youth when unable to get the early lead, to just miss wiring the field in the Florida Derby when caught late by Dialed In. He has also been working well, has some stamina in his pedigree and should like a wet track. If either of these two gets loose up front and slows down the pace, they could go a long way, as could any of the speed horses in here, but that’s a big if.

Twice the Appeal comes into the Derby off a workmanlike win in the Sunland Park Derby after a second-place finish in the Turf Paradise Derby. His Beyer Speed Figure in the Sunland Park Derby was an 89, which we think is an accurate measure of his ability to this point. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to get anyone excited, but he became an item when it was announced he was getting a rider switch to Calvin Borel, who has won three of the last four runnings of the Kentucky Derby. While we don’t really think Twice the Appeal is good enough to win on the ability he’s shown so far, expect Borel to head straight to the rail from the start and give this horse a good trip. That in itself was good enough to win the Derby in 2007 aboard Street Sense, in 2009 aboard Mine That Bird, and in 2010 aboard Super Saver, none of whom were considered the best horses in the race in their respective years. But taking the odds down from 20-1 to 8-1 because of Borel’s presence is overkill as far as we’re concerned. Of course, if the other jockeys are dumb enough to give Borel the rail AGAIN, well…

Soldat had won two in a row on the lead before finding himself in tight inside and unable to get near the lead in the Florida Derby. He was steadying early, never appeared comfortable at any stage of the race and threw in the towel in the drive to finish fifth beaten 10 1 ¼-lengths. He shouldn’t have any trouble this time breaking from Post 17, and we expect him to run a better race, but now we’re not quite sure how he’ll perform. He did prove he could rally when finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year, but he has yet to prove he can finish strong on the dirt without getting the lead, even with a clean trip from the outside. At this point he remains a question mark that has to be included in superfectas.

We liked Santiva in the Blue Grass after a good second place finish in the Risen Star Stakes behind Mucho Macho Man, but he never got a chance to run while in tight inside in various stages of that race and being blocked throughout the stretch. Santiva gets a rider switch from Leparoux to Bridgmohan for the Derby, and while that likely won’t be enough to put him into the winner’s circle, it might get him into the superfecta.

The winner of the Blue Grass, Brilliant Speed, trailed the field behind a slow pace to the final turn with jockey Joel Rosario aboard for the first time, and had to wait mildly more than once when trying to move up along the rail. When he did finally get rolling he moved outside in early stretch and came with a solid workmanlike rally to defeat fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Twinspired by a nose. The latter had a decent trip up front in the Blue Grass and did give his best, but there will be a faster and classier pace scenario in the Derby. We expect Brilliant Speed to move forward in the Derby if he can handle dirt, and he definitely appears to have some upside, we’re just not sure if it will be enough to get him home on top.

Master of Hounds finished a game second coming off a five-month layoff in the UAE Derby on March 26 going 1 3/16-miles. He sat close to the pace in that race, took on the leader in early stretch, wore that one down, took over the lead and dug in all the way to the wire to just miss while justifiably tiring. He has an exceptional stamina pedigree and should move forward off that race. Third in the Racing Post Trophy-G1 on the turf in England as a 2-year-old, Master of Hounds followed that race up with a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last November after steadying early. He appears to be a horse with a measure of class who will give his best under pressure, making him an interesting longshot for the Derby superfecta.

Comma to the Top found his form again in his third start after a two-month layoff, setting the pace in the Santa Anita Derby, turning back the other speed and giving his best in the drive before succumbing in the final strides to Midnight Interlude. The Santa Anita Derby has always been an important Kentucky Derby prep but many are downgrading its quality this year. The important thing to note is that Comma to the Top gets a rider switch to one of the best speed riders in the history of the sport in Patrick Valenzuela and we fully expect a strong effort from him for as far as he goes. The only way the other speed goes by him easily in the Derby is if he doesn’t handle the Churchill Downs dirt.

Midnight Interlude looked like a horse that was still learning how to run and getting fit while doing it in the Santa Anita Derby. His trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby three times and this horse definitely appears to have something more to show us yet based on his sharp recent workouts at Churchill Downs.

Stay Thirsty showed little with first-time blinkers in his second start off a four-month layoff in the Florida Derby after winning the Gotham at Aqueduct, but even if he does bounce back with the blinkers off we just can’t see him winning this race. Decisive Moment is a speed-type who hasn’t been able to handle the class raise as evidenced by his fifth and second place finishes respectively in the Risen Star and Spiral Stakes. The Derby is longer and classier and we just can’t see him handling the additional pace pressure.

The winner of the Spiral Stakes, which took place on March 26 at Turfway Park, was Animal Kingdom, who after trailing inside early, moved up on the final turn, challenged Decisive Moment into the lane, wore that one down and drew out late. It’s tough to fault his form, with two wins and two seconds from four starts, and he looks like he’ll get the distance, but he will be moving up in class for the Derby and he’ll have to outkick some heavy hitters this time.

Watch Me Go won the Tampa Bay Derby but found his class lacking in his next and last start, the Illinois Derby, finishing sixth beaten 17 lengths. His numbers are low and while he could possibly fall into a superfecta spot at long odds with a perfect trip under top California rider Bejarano, we don’t like his chances.

Good Luck!

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