Kentucky Derby Picks

2008 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis
by Kenneth Strong, Chief Horse Racing Handicapper at Predictem.com

The 134th Kentucky Derby will be run as the 10th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3, with an approximate post time of 6:02 p.m. EST. Below follow our Kentucky Derby selections and analysis.

Mud or no mud we’re going to try to get morning-line favorite Big Brown beat in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. We just don’t like horses coming into this race off romping wins over mediocre competition. That would be Big Brown.

Big Brown is a logical morning-line favorite - for the public. He looked great winning the Florida Derby to remain undefeated in three starts, he has a beautiful stamina pedigree, he has the best Beyer Speed Figures (106 twice) in the field, and he has speed to burn. He also has jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has won the Derby twice. So what’s not to like?

Well, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from Post 20, and Big Brown will have to be used early to gain position and avoid being fanned wide into the first turn. He also lacks seasoning and experience. The last time a horse won the Derby with only three lifetime starts was in 1915 when Regret did it. And he’s moving up in class for this race. Numerous horses in the 2008 Kentucky Derby are better than anything Big Brown has beaten up on so far, especially the California shippers - who might just take care of Big Brown both early and late.

All three California-based horses have proven they are game and that they will run all the way to the wire. Bob Black Jack hasn’t trained all that well at Churchill Downs, but he gets blinkers on and is the quickest of the bunch. He’ll take any speed horse in the country a solid mile and more if he’s anywhere close to being right - AND - he lets no one by easy. If Big Brown has to get by Bob Black Jack on the final turn in this year’s Derby he will have to work at it. And then there’s Gayego, one of the few horses in the race who has broken the 100 mark on the Beyer scale. He was a game second the San Felipe behind sharp-shooter Georgie Boy and came back with a fast pace-pressing fitness-building win in the Arkansas Derby. We can’t see Big Brown putting Gayego away easily either, if at all. But if Big Brown does manage to take care of Gayego and Bob Black Jack, he’ll then have to hold off the best of the Californians – Colonel John.

Colonel John has a decent stamina pedigree, but he also has heart and the ability to overcome. He’s won his last two starts, the Sham Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby, both 1 1/8 miles, in game fashion, and in the Santa Anita Derby he had four lengths of trouble on the final turn before flying home late. His Beyer Figures are a little low, but we think he’s peaking for this race and he’ll likely get the pace he needs to set up his late run. He also gets Cory Nakatani, who has never won a Derby but has won seven Breeders’ Cup races. More importantly, Nakatani is one of the few active riders that were members of a once spectacular California jockey colony – and he’s simply a better than most of the jockeys he’ll meet in the 2008 Derby.

We think both Gayego and Colonel John have a chance to upset Big Brown in the Derby and if they can’t there are a few others who might come up big – or at least have to be used in your Superfectas.

2008 Kentucky Derby Superfecta Contenders and Why

Tale of Ekati has a chance to finish in the top four simply because he comes off a hard fitness-building win in the Wood Memorial. Court Vision gets the nod off his good rally in the same race and sharp trainer Bill Mott should have him ready to rock with blinkers on for his third start off the layoff. He also owns a win at Churchill Downs. Z Fortune ran an excellent race to finish second behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby and cracked the 100 Beyer mark despite a wide trip. He was never going to get by Gayego - even if they went around again - but it was a good race and it should have him dead fit for the Derby.

Big Truck didn’t run a jump in the Blue Grass on the Polytrack but has been training well at Churchill Downs and could rebound. Pyro also never ran a jump in the Blue Grass, but as trainer Asmussen said, the goal all along was to win the Kentucky Derby – NOT the Blue Grass. We expect Pyro to be fully loaded for the Derby, and he does have a win over the track. We actually liked Smooth Air to finish in the money in the Derby off his second place finish behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby, but he had a temperature this week and now we don’t know what to do with him. Denis of Cork is the last of what we consider legitimate contenders for the Superfecta. He has been working sharply at Churchill Downs after finishing fifth in a race he had no chance to win over a speed-favoring strip in the Illinois Derby, a race that also produced the first of on our pretenders list – Recapturetheglory.

2008 Kentucky Derby Pretenders

Recapturetheglory has some speed but was flattered by the speed bias he rode to his Illinois Derby win. We think filly Eight Belles should be in the Kentucky Oaks. Her numbers say she belongs but we don’t believe them and think she’ll get obliterated by at least half of this year’s Derby field. Cool Coal Man had an excuse over the Polytrack in the Blue Grass but has never beaten anybody. Anak Nakal is another who simply isn’t good enough. Visonaire could possibly make the Superfecta based on his proven ability over a wet track in the Gotham but he looks iffy to us. Z Humor finished a non-threatening third in the Illinois Derby and had the speed bias as an excuse but we think he has already run his best races – which are also not good enough. We bet Monba to win the Blue Grass and he did. He also owns a win at Churchill Downs but...he’s too slow. We liked Adriano based on rider Prado selecting him over Monba and Tale of Ekati, but he hasn’t been training all that well. And Cowboy Cal will get eaten up on the pace.

2008 Kentucky Derby Betting Strategy

We’ll be playing both Colonel John and Gayego to win and using them together and separately in multiple positions in exactas, trifectas and superfectas with the contenders mentioned earlier.

Good luck betting the 2008 Kentucky Derby!

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