Kentucky Derby Picks

2009 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby is never easy, but it’s one of those few races where you can actually make a killing in two minutes if you get it right. I want the $54,000 superfecta. That might not be possible this year, as the contenders look solid, but we do have a few longshots that could slip in and make the superfecta pay.

We’ll be using Pioneer of the Nile first and second on most of our tickets, with some savers including him in third and fourth in the trifectas and superfectas respectively. We’ve watched him run all winter and he just comes to play every time. He’s won four in a row, all stakes and Gomez sticks with him. The naysayers would have you believe his numbers are too low and that his synthetic form won’t transfer to the dirt.  Regardless, he’s been training perfectly over the Churchill Downs surface for this race and we just can’t forget the comment we heard about him a few months ago. Apparently he’s a little lazy and has to be cajoled and coaxed to get going in the stretch. Once rolling however, he does what he has to do to win. That’s the kind of horse that wins the Derby.  And he does have enough pedigree.

We rate I Want Revenge and Dunkirk about even right now as our second choices. Dunkirk ran a big number when finishing second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby and could be the most talented horse in the field. He made a big move in the Florida Derby to catch Quality Road in the stretch but ran out of seasoning late. He should benefit from that race and move forward. His lack of seasoning could show up late in the Derby stretch, but we expect him to make a bid and the win spot is not out of the question. He also has an excellent stamina pedigree and gets top jock Prado.

I Want Revenge showed raw talent in the Gotham when he garnered a 113 Beyer Speed Figure and came right back to add courage and determination to his resume in the Wood Memorial. In that race he lost at least 3-4 lengths after a slow break.  He then ran into traffic on the turn and had absolutely nowhere to go in the stretch. Blocked and jammed up until deep stretch, he half forced his way out late to get the job done. It was an excellent display of character downplayed only by the fact that the company was a little suspect. Can he win this race? Yes.

Next on our list is Friesan Fire, who romped in the sloppy Louisiana Derby by seven lengths. He’s won his last three starts, all stakes, but we’re still not convinced he’s beaten anything. He did however, defeat Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and that possible longshot contender in the Derby came back to win the Arkansas Derby in his next start.  Friesan Fire should make some kind of bid in the stretch, and could win with his best race, but we’re leaning more towards the horses mentioned above.

Our best longshot pick to win the race, and the only longshot we really think has a chance to win the race, is Hold Me Back. Trained by the talented Bill Mott, Hold Me Back won the Lane’s End off a six month layoff before regressing in the Blue Grass to finish second with just an okay effort.  Has been training well and while he might be a little short on seasoning, he should be ready to deliver a top effort. He also gets 4-time Derby winning rider Kent Desormeaux.

We’ll likely be using the above five selections in multiple combinations in the Kentucky Derby Superfecta, but we’ll also be including a few all legs on our tickets, hoping that the $54,000 Derby Superfecta decides to rear its beautiful head.

Good Luck!

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