Derby Trial G3 and Withers Stakes Preview and Picks

Kentucky Derby Preps for Saturday, April 24, 2010 – Derby Trial, Withers Stakes
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com

Kentucky Derby Prep Races

- Derby Trial G3 - 1 mile – Churchill Downs, Race 10

- Withers Stakes G3 – 1 mile – Aqueduct, Race 9

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The final two preps for the 136th Kentucky Derby take place this weekend and after the crazy prep results two weeks ago we’re ready for anything. While the top two horses for the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, continue to remain head and shoulders above the rest, there are numerous horses going backwards as the arduous Road to the Derby takes its toll.

The Blue Grass Stakes run over Keeneland’s synthetic surface on April 10 has to be considered a total throw out after every horse that figured to have a reasonable chance in that race ran up the track. San Felipe runner-up Interactif finished fourth with an uncharacteristically mild effort while Make Music For Me, Pleasant Prince, Aikenite and Odysseus inexplicably ran sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth while 40-1 shot Stately Victor powered home late to win impressively.

Could it have been the track surface in the Blue Grass? It certainly didn’t seem to bother Stately Victor, whose performance was downgraded by many, but who actually looked big, strong and healthy late in the race, winning comfortably by 4 ¼-lengths. But we find it hard to believe that all the other horses in that race could go backwards, and all at the same time. We’ll get a better idea on Saturday, when Pleasant Prince and Aikenite run back in the Derby Trial.

The Arkansas Derby on April 10 also did little to convince us that any of its participants could win the Kentucky Derby. Favored Noble’s Promise had some trouble at the start and again early in the race and finished mildly to collect fifth money, and we’re not quite sure he wants to go the mile and a quarter of the Kentucky Derby regardless. But neither Super Saver nor Dublin could get by 17-1 speed horse Line of David. While many are saying Line of David ran exceptionally well, we’re thinking he beat horses who either couldn’t or wouldn’t dig in when it counted to win.

The two Kentucky Derby preps this weekend will likely have little bearing on the actual Kentucky Derby itself, but two horses are in a “win and you’re in” situation. Both Pleasant Prince and Eightfiveinafifty can earn enough to secure their spot in the 2010 Kentucky Derby with a win in the Derby Trial.

We won’t be betting either one of them.

Derby Trial G3 - 1 mile – Churchill Downs, Race 10

Erratic Eightfiveinafifty is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite for the Derby Trial and he does have some sharp speed, but he certainly can’t be trusted at a short price.

In his last start on April 3, the 7-furlong Bay Shore at Aqueduct, Eightfiveinafifty acted a little goofy at the start with the addition of blinkers, but eventually opened up and won by 2 ½-lengths to earn a rare-this-year triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure of 100. But in his race prior to the Bay Shore, the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct on February 6, Eightfiveinafifty bolted as the less than even money favorite and was pulled up. His game is speed however, and with a Kentucky Derby birth at stake, he should be firing his best shot. If he opens a clear lead early in the Derby Trial he could steal it, but with other speed in the race we’ll be looking elsewhere.

It’s difficult to know what to make of Pleasant Prince, who failed to pick up his feet in the Blue Grass and finished seventh after an excellent effort in the Florida Derby at 29-1. We had him in our exactas on Florida Derby day as a pedigree play and were expecting a big effort from him in the Blue Grass, but he ran so poorly that we’re thinking the track surface must have been the reason. Jockey Leparoux did say after the Blue Grass that Pleasant Prince did not handle the track. Pleasant Prince also has a form pattern that reads good race-bad race-good race-bad race-good race-bad race and that would make the Derby Trial a supposedly good race, especially if he likes the Churchill Downs surface. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line he has to be included on your exotic tickets. And don’t forget, A Kentucky Derby birth is at stake for Pleasant Prince in this race.

Aikenite ran even worse than Pleasant Prince in the Blue Grass despite an okay trip and he has now underperformed on numerous occasions. He has some talent, although we’re not sure how much anymore, but he just can’t seem to get his act together. A number of bettors will be playing him the Derby Trial, but we’re giving up on him for now.

There are a few angle plays in here who should be a price. Privilaged came back off a three-month layoff to run second in the 7-furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 20 and he might just have enough speed to keep Eightfiveinafifty honest up front, especially if he improves in his second start off the layoff for trainer John Sadler. He was beaten only 3 ½-lengths by D’Funnybone in the Swale Stakes, and D’Funnybone will be heavily favored to win the Withers at Aqueduct today. At 15-1 on the morning line we’ll be using him on our exotic tickets as a fresh horse in a race of limited talent.

Privilaged could also help set the race up for his stablemate Hurricane Ike, who has the perfect running style to win this race with a perfect trip. And he does get the services of jockey Calvin Borel, who wins a lot more races with rail trips than he does with the best horse. Hurricane Ike finished second beaten 2 ½-lengths by Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore after prompting the pace in that race, but if Borel can somehow tuck him inside behind a speed duel at 5-1 he has a shot to win this.

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The last horse we’ll be using on our exotic tickets is Miner’s Reserve, and only because Nick Zito has a habit of pulling upsets at this time of year with these kinds of horses. We liked Miner’s Reserve as a longshot exotics play in the Florida Derby and he ran terrible, finishing 10th beaten 34 lengths at underlay odds of 6-1. After an impressive maiden special weight win going a mile in his start before the Florida Derby, he just can’t be that bad, and he certainly deserves a chance to rebound.

The proper way to bet this race is to play the horse at the best overlay price at post time, both to win and in the exotics.

Withers Stakes G3 – 1 mile – Aqueduct, Race 9

D’ Funnybone will be heavily favored to take the Withers Stakes and deservedly so. He’s won both of his starts this year, the 7-furlong Hutcheson G2 and Swale Stakes G2 at Gulfstream Park; he has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field; he doesn’t need the lead to win; and he defeated Withers second choice Ibboyee in each of  his last  two races. On paper he looks like a sure thing. Exactly the kind of horse we’d love to beat at 1-2!

There’s no fun or serious money to be made betting 1-2 shot, so we’ll be taking our chances with speed horse Castaneda in the Withers, although we don’t think we’ll get anything close to the 10-1 morning line he’s listed at in the short 6-horse field.  Castaneda is razor sharp, coming off three straight sprint wins, all at Aqueduct and all on the lead. He’s had the lead at every call in his last three races, and while he hasn’t won at over six furlongs in three early career tries, he looks like an improved horse lately and the price will be right.

Good Luck!

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