Kentucky Derby Preps for Saturday, April 3rd, 2010

Kentucky Derby Preps for Saturday, April 3, 2010 – Kentucky Derby favorites Lookin at Lucky, Eskendereya look best in Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial

· Wood Memorial G1 – 1 1/8-miles - Aqueduct, Race 9

· Santa Anita Derby G1 – 1 1/8-miles - Santa Anita, Race 6

· Illinois Derby – 1 1/8-miles - Hawthorne, Race 7

The top two current Kentucky Derby favorites, Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, will attempt to move forward once again today in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby respectively. The two favorites look solid but they will likely be over bet, so we’ll tie them up in exotic wagers and try to make a score that way. The Illinois Derby might be the race to get a better price, as both Yawanna Twist and Backtalk are angle plays with reasons to improve. Below follows our analysis of the Kentucky Derby prep races for Saturday, April 3, 2010.

2010 Wood Memorial G1 – 1 1/8-miles - Aqueduct, Race 9

Eskendereya will be heavily favored to win the 86th running of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Saturday and a repeat of his last race would make him tough to beat. Often in a 6-horse field, the race becomes a battle of wits among the riders, which often produces dumb rides, but even with a bad ride it would be difficult to see Eskendereya finishing worse than second in the Wood.

Eskendereya was dominant winning the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park by 8 ½-lengths over fellow Wood Memorial entrant Jackson Bend on February 20. He has the highest last race Beyer Speed Figure (106) and is also the only horse in the Wood Memorial with a win at the distance. Some are thinking Eskendereya might regress off his big win in the Fountain of Youth and his Beyer Speed Figure jump from 92 to 106, but even if he does, he still might be good enough. The only other horse in the Wood Memorial to have ever cracked 100 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale is Jackson Bend, and Eskendereya already trounced that one.

While Eskendereya is the most probable winner of the Wood Memorial, he offers little wagering value if he goes off at his 4/5 morning line odds. At 6/5 he would be very enticing, but that’s not likely to happen.

Our two angle horses in the Wood Memorial are Awesome Act and Schoolyard Dreams.

Awesome Act won the 1 1/16-mile Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 6 in his first start off a four-month layoff and received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. While a bounce is possible, Awesome Act should move forward off that race in one of his next two starts. We liked him the Gotham off his solid fourth place finish in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, in which he was beaten only 1½-lengths for the win.

Another indicator of the potential class of Awesome Act is the fact that Interactif, who finished only half a length ahead of him in the Breeders’ Juvenile Turf, recently outbattled the previously undefeated Caracortado to finish second in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita behind lone speed Sidney’s Candy. Listed at 9/2 on the morning line, if Awesome Act actually goes off at those generous odds we’ll have something on him.

Schoolyard Dreams is a bit of a sleeper who could go either way. He gets a switch to top New York jockey Ramon Dominguez off a heartbreaking head-bob loss to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby after making an eye-catching move on the turn and then hanging through the drive for some reason. Maybe he likes to wait on horses. If so Dominguez he’ll have to time his move perfectly to have any shot at all of posting an upset. Schoolyard Dream’s Beyer Speed figures also seem a little low, his best being a 94. But the bullet move he made in the Tampa Bay Derby and the fact that he may have been waiting on horses in the stretch intrigues us. In his second start off a six-week layoff and first ever in a stakes race he finished second in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. We expected improvement from him in the Tampa Bay Derby and we got it after a wide trip, but he fell just short of winning. A price-play horse with Dominguez aboard, Schoolyard Dreams might just get the trip he needs this time.

The remainder of the short field for the Wood Memorial includes Most Happy Fella, who should provide some early speed but who appears outclassed at this stage of his career; Carnivore, who recently broke his maiden at Laurel; and Jackson Bend, who is tough to bet off his 8-1/2-length loss to Eskendereya in his last.

We’ll take Eskendereya over Awesome Act and Schoolyard Dreams in our main exactas, reverse it for a quarter of the amount, and play a small box saver on the three.

2010 Santa Anita Derby G1 – 1 1/8-miles - Santa Anita, Race 6

The 2010 Santa Anita Derby goes through Lookin at Lucky. If he’s recovered from his tough-trip head win over Noble’s Promise off an 11-week layoff in the March 13 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, he’s the horse to beat at a short price.

Lookin at Lucky has only lost once in seven starts, and that narrow miss came when he finished second by a head in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year after a wide trip. In his Rebel win he had some minor trouble at the start and was also squeezed back and taken up on the turn for home. He then came wide for the drive and commenced a workmanlike rally to get up in time. Many are saying Lookin at Lucky could bounce; that this race doesn’t count for him; that the Kentucky Derby is the real goal; but he still looks like a horse who doesn’t like to lose. The morning line has Lookin at Lucky 3/5, which might be unrealistic. Even money would be more like it. And if you get better than that, he’s the play.

Sidney’s Candy may try to steal this race as he did the San Felipe, zipping to the front, setting a slow pace and holding well in the drive. He looks like he could be the lone speed if he wants to be, and if that happens he will go a long ways and might even win this. If he tries to slow it down too much however, he could get pressure from recent Golden Gate allowance winner Skipshot, and maybe even Caracortado, who fell victim to the slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy in his last an ended up finishing third, having his undefeated streak snapped at five. We cashed on Caracortado in the R B Lewis at 9/2 and were expecting better of him in the San Felipe. He now looks like he needs a pace battle to run at.

We loved Alphie’s Bet at Predictem in the March 6 Sham Stakes and he didn’t disappoint at a great price of over 8-1! He has the ability to dig in and accelerate late, which is something a number of entrants in here cannot do –they are simply running on talent. Alphie’s Bet is outrunning his talent and seasoning right now, and it will be interesting to see if he can do the same with these. This is a different league than those he beat in the Sham. Still, the Sham was at today’s distance and he is making his second start off the layoff. Alphie’s Bet likes to sit back and wait, come wide for the drive, pounce on the early bidders and accelerate late. His Beyer Speed Figures may be a little low at this stage of his career, but if some type of battle develops on the turn or in early stretch, he could surprise.

If you’re looking for a longshot for the superfecta, throw in Posse Power, who had enough trouble in his last start, the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate on February 20, to cost him the win. He finished with decent energy in that race after steadying early and being blocked twice in the stretch and looks like he could improve. His numbers are quite a bit lower than the best in here, but he may have some upside yet.

We think Lookin at Lucky is the best horse in the Santa Anita Derby, but we’re unlikely to get decent odds, so we’ll play him first and second in the exactas and trifectas with Sidney’s Candy, Caracortado and Alphie’s Bet, playing heavier with Lookin at Lucky on top. In the superfecta we’ll use Lookin at Lucky first and second with the same three horses, add in trip horse Posse Power, and play the all leg in third and fourth in some smaller combinations with our key horses.

2010 Illinois Derby – 1 1/8-miles - Hawthorne, Race 7

The 53rd running of the Illinois Derby features numerous horses trying to earn enough money to get into the Kentucky Derby but a few of them simply don’t look like they will get any better.

American Lion, Stephen’s Got Hope and Dave in Dixie all exit the much tougher San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita with rather nondescript efforts while Boulder Creek exits the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. None of the aforementioned horses would strike fear into the hearts of the major Kentucky Derby contenders at this point in their careers so we’re going to go with a couple of angle horses.

Yawanna Twist made only his third lifetime start in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 6 and finished second beaten 1 ½-lengths by Awesome Act. The latter will be taking on Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial on Saturday. Yawanna Twist had some minor trouble in the Gotham and had to wait briefly to get running room before rallying behind the winner. He would have made it a photo with a better trip and his eligible to improve in today’s race.

Backtalk is an interesting horse. He comes into the Illinois Derby off a half-length win in the Sportsman’s Paradise Stakes going a mile in the slop at Delta Downs. That was Backtalk’s first start off an 18-week layoff and he had an uncomfortable trip before exerting sheer will to win late. A winner of the Sanford Stakes G2 at Saratoga last year, Backtalk looks like a horse who wants to win and if he moves forward in his second start off the layoff with a better ride than he got in his last race, he should at least make the exacta for sharp trainer Tom Amoss.

With the California shippers likely to take good betting action in the Illinois Derby we might just get good solid prices on both Yawanna Twist and Backtalk and bet them both of them to win. We’ll also box them in the exactas and play the pair to the board in all three spots in the trifecta.

Good Luck!

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