Preakness Stakes Pick

Courtesy of Kenneth Strong, Predictem.com Horse Racing Analyst

2011 Preakness Stakes Picks and Analysis

136th Running of the Preakness Stakes Grade 1

Distance: 1 3/16-miles Surface: Dirt Purse: $1 million

Pimlico Race Course Race 12, Saturday May 21, 2011

Main Preakness Stakes Selections

1. Animal Kingdom

2. Concealed Identity

3. Dialed In

4. Mucho Macho Man

Preakness Superfecta Longshots

Midnight Interlude, Mr. Commons

Animal Kingdom will be everybody’s logical choice in the 2011 Preakness and why not? He defeated many of the contenders here in the Kentucky Derby and he did it relatively easily considering he was making a huge class jump. He also had to rally into a slow pace when fellow Preakness entrant Shackleford was allowed coast up front in the Derby under no pressure.

Shackleford is back for the Preakness, and this time he apparently faces slightly more speed, which should ensure a decent pace for Animal Kingdom and beaten Derby favorite Dialed In to rally into. The speed horses on paper at least are Flashpoint, Dance City and Shackleford. They should form the first flight. After that it gets a little crazy, as numerous horses in here like to run close to the pace.

Astrology, Norman Asbjornson, Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man, and Mr. Commons all have a chance of working out a perfect trip behind the speed, as does local hopeful Concealed Identity, who we’re hoping will get overlooked in the wagering.

The ralliers besides favorites Animal Kindgom and Dialed In included King Congie, Sway Away and Isn’t He Perfect. All will have to make sure they are in a good spot when the speed starts to fold, especially Dialed In, who appears to needs a clear path to show his best. Much has been made of how fast Dialed In ran his final half in the Kentucky Derby, rallying from last to finish eighth beaten 7 ½-lengths. While he could win the Preakness with a better trip, he still has yet to run a Beyer Speed Figure above 93 going over a mile. That’s probably not good enough to win the Preakness without a dream trip.

King Congie could improve in his second start off the layoff, but his class is a question after the two horses that beat him in the Bluegrass Stakes did not perform well in the Derby. We were a fan of Sway Away three starts ago but he just never seems to be able to get it done, and it’s not for lack of effort. Isn’t He Perfect wasn’t close in either the Wood Memorial or the Jerome and we’re not sure why he’s in here.

On a horse by horse basis in the 2011 Preakness:

Astrology makes his third start off the layoff after finishing second in the Jerome. He likes to sit close to the pace and should now be ready to run his best race. We’re not sure he’ll like the distance or the class he faces here but he should get himself into the fray at some point with a mild bid.

Norman Asbjornson also makes his third start off the layoff after finishing fourth in the Wood Memorial. Like Astrology, he appears to be improving but he just doesn’t seem to be anything to write home about. King Congie should make a bid when the speed falters but we can’t see him sustaining that bid to the wire. Shackleford will try to escape from Flashpoint and Dance City early. If he does he can go a long way. If he doesn’t all three of them should force each other into submission at some point. Sway Away hasn’t developed the way we had hoped.

Midnight Interlude is intriguing and his trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness five times, including last year’s rendition. We liked the way this horse won the Santa Anita Derby, even though the competition might have been suspect. He didn’t have the seasoning for the Kentucky Derby and finished sixteenth. He could rebound here with a big race based on the trainer angle and the fact that he competed in the Derby, which gives him some much needed seasoning.

Mucho Macho Man ran a good race in the Derby to finish third beaten three lengths and he always runs his race. If you’re looking for a tough guy to bet who comes to play every time, this is your horse. And he does have a shot to win at a decent price. Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the logical first and second choices based on form and class and should both rally late.

Isn’t He Perfect appears overmatched. Mr. Commons has Zenyatta’s trainer John Shirreffs in his corner and he did run a decent race on the class raise in the Santa Anita Derby. He could improve and would be considered a sleeper longshot.

Concealed Identity is our fun play in here. He’s won two in a row at Pimlico and looked good winning the Fredrico Tesio in his last. His numbers seem a little on the low side, but he’s the only horse with local experience, he’s in great form and he should get a great trip behind the speed. We’ll use him in the exactas top and bottom with Animal Kingdom along with our other selections.

Need another reason to bet Animal Kingdom today? He’s thriving. He’s eaten everything his trainer could feed him since he ran in the Kentucky Derby. Horses just don’t do that anymore.

Good Luck!

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