2008 Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders, Odds and Comments
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
Last Updated Monday, April 21, 2008
With War Pass out of the Kentucky Derby the pace scenario changes dramatically and gives Big Brown an even greater edge. While Big Brown doesn’t appear to need the lead to win, unless some legitimate gutsy speed type like Bob Black Jack goes in the race he might just have it all his own way when the running starts – unless perhaps Gayego can give him a go on the turn. In that case the edge in the race goes to Colonel John. We also still think Pyro could rebound with a good race. The odds below reflect our current opinion of each horse. Sportsbook odds may differ significantly.
Horse - Odds - Comments for 2008 Kentucky Derby Contenders
1. Big Brown (5/2) – Absence of War Pass makes his pace presence much more effective. Huge win in the Florida Derby, an excellent stamina pedigree and room for improvement make him the horse to beat - IF no one can take a round out of him on the final turn.
2. Colonel John (4-1) – Overcame trouble in the Santa Anita Derby to win and had to run all the way to the wire down the lane to do it. Looks like he’ll get the 1 ¼-mile distance on Derby day.
3. Gayego (6-1) – Confirmed that the California horses were legitimate with a fast pace-pressing win in the Arkansas Derby. Should improve again and he is a game one.
4. Pyro (7-1) – His Polytrack experiment in the Bluegrass was a flop but he could rebound at a nice price when back on the Derby dirt if he gets some pace to run at.
5. Court Vision (9-1) – Has been working well for star trainer Bill Mott. Loved the way he finished in the Wood Memorial and should be all set for Derby day now.
6. Denis of Cork (15-1) – Upset by a longshot speed horse in the Illinois Derby, we can’t believe he’s that bad. Good recent work keeps him in the mix.
7. Z Fortune – (20-1) Good second behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby puts him back on the contender list as a horse with an in-the-money shot.
8. Tale of Ekati (25-1) – Gutted out Wood Memorial win and could improve again.
9. Smooth Air – (30-1) – Second place finish behind Big Brown in Florida Derby looks better now as others have gone by the wayside.
10. Adriano – (35-1) - Lane’s End win was decent but still needs a real test of class.
This week’s Derby Longshot – "Kentucky Bear" – Outran his odds to finish third in the Blue Grass. Lacks seasoning but obviously has some talent, and should improve again.
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