2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10 – Updated April 16, 2009

by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com

The Kentucky Derby is only two weeks away and the major Derby preps are complete. Now it’s just a matter of observing to see which horses train well and which go by the way side. General Quarters rebounded just as we thought he would to win the Bluegrass Stakes (but at a stunning price) and Hold Me Back bounced as might have been expected but still finished second. Papa Clem won an unimpressive Arkansas Derby over favorite Old Fashioned, who ran game considering he was found to have a slab fracture after the race. Old Fashioned is now off the Derby trail. Below follow our top Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 16, 2009. If we’re missing a horse you like, please let us know and we’ll check it out. We will update our contender list every week until the Kentucky Derby on May 2, 2009 at Churchill Downs.

1. Pioneer of the Nile – Recently worked a sharp half mile in 46 2/5 at Santa Anita with an equipment change from a ring bit to a D-bit and he appears to be heading into the Kentucky Derby in excellent shape, but he’ll still be underestimated because of his lower Beyer Speed Figures. Despite the scratch of favored The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby, Pioneer of the Nile did what he had to do to win. We think he would have beaten The Pamplemousse regardless (but it’s still sad to see that one out of action for six months with a tendon problem.) And we still don’t think he’s run his best race yet.  Some still say he’s too slow but we’re not buying that, especially since he might be able to stalk a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby.  He did earn a 96 Beyer for his Santa Anita Derby win, one point better than he earned for winning the R B Lewis. Based on the fact that whenever he’s asked to get the job done he does what he has to do, we’ll leave him at the top of our contenders list for now.

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2. Dunkirk – Had his Beyer Speed Figure upgraded to a 108 for his second place finish in the Florida Derby and it now looks like he will get into the Kentucky Derby. Made a big move in the Florida Derby to challenge Quality Road turning for home but couldn’t match that one late and had to settle for second 1 ¾-lengths back. It was an excellent race for Dunkirk considering his lack of seasoning. Looks like he’ll handle the Derby distance and is another who has the right running style to take advantage of a hot pace in the Kentucky Derby. Note that he didn’t race as a 2-year-old, and the last time a horse won the Derby without racing as a juvenile was in 1882.

3. Quality Road – Turned in an excellent race to defeat Dunkirk in the Florida Derby and recently had his Beyer Speed Figure for that win upgraded to a 111, despite having something left at the wire. We thought he was a good horse and a possible Derby winner before that race, but he has improved faster than we thought he would. We were expecting the Florida Derby effort in the Kentucky Derby. And now he’s developed a hind quarter crack that will have to be watched closely. Might be the most talented horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby, but the quarter crack combined with a lack of seasoning worries us.  This despite the fact that he has one of the best horsemen in the world at the helm in trainer Jimmy Jerkens. Would be our choice if not for the quarter crack and has to be left in the Top 3 mix for the Kentucky Derby.

4. I Want Revenge – Overcame adversity to win a race he shouldn’t have won when he took the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct .  He spotted the field four lengths off a poor break, advanced into striking position on the turn for home, then found himself with nowhere to go to mid stretch. He finally got out late (and half made his own room) and accelerated to win, earning a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. We never thought he was that good, but he certainly showed he could handle a tough beat. That race alone makes him top contender in the Derby despite the fact that it was over suspect opposition.

5. Friesan Fire – Was much the best over a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 14, winning by 7 ¼-lengths and leaving former fellow Derby Top 10ers Giant Oak and Papa Clem in his wake.  The latter came back to win the Arkansas Derby and the former came back to finish second in the Illinois Derby. Did the track condition play a part in his Louisiana Derby win? Difficult tell, but he’s now won three stakes in a row, albeit over suspect company.  He received a 104 Beyer for his Louisiana Derby win; he appears to handle nicely from just off the pace, and he has enough pedigree to get the distance.

6. Hold Me Back – Bounced as somewhat expected in the Blue Grass last weekend, finishing second to General Quarters after making a decent rally that looked a like a prep for his next and third start off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby. Difficult to tell how good he is at this stage after regressing from a 97 Beyer Speed Figure to a 93, but with Hall of Famer Bill Mott in charge he is expected to bring his best race to Churchill on the first Saturday in May.  Looked smashing in his 3-year-old debut in The Lane’s End at Turfway, which he won in “fresh” fashion off a 15-week layoff.  Let’s see how he trains at Churchill.

7. Musket Man – Got a good trip in the Illinois Derby and ran one of his best races yet courtesy of new rider Eibar Coa. He’s now 5-for-6 and he looks like he’ll get the Kentucky Derby distance. His rider thinks so too. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his Illinois Derby win was his best yet and he looked like he still had something left in the tank.  Rider Coa, who won last weekend’s Blue Grass with General Quarters, gave Musket Man an additional vote of confidence when he opted to stick with this guy for the Kentucky Derby.  Despite coming into the Derby off two good wins he might still be the underestimated price play.

8. General Quarters – Got back on track with a good win in the Blue Grass Stakes last weekend and paid a stunning overlay price of $30.60 to win. He looked like the second best horse in the field off the Past Performances and he was also coming into the race off a troubled trip in the in the Tampa Bay Derby. We thought he would be 7/2 in the race. Amazing. Earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure for the Blue Grass win over fellow Derby contender Hold Me Back and winning rider Eibar Coa has already said he’ll be sticking with Musket Man in the Derby. Hmm… what does that tell you?

9. Win Willy – Predictably bounced off his shocking 56-1 Rebel Stakes upset to finish fourth in the Arkansas Derby last weekend, so we’re not ready to throw him out just yet. In the Rebel he was moving way up in class out of an allowance race and stretching out from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth for only his second start off an extended layoff. His Beyer Speed Figure improved from 86 to 102 in the Rebel, and he regressed back to a 96 in the Arkansas Derby, but he could improve again in his next start. By 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos out of a Carson City mare, he might just have the pedigree to get the Derby distance.  Remains as a Derby superfecta wild card.

10. Chocolate Candy – Brought a solid record from up north into the Santa Anita Derby and finished a good second beaten a length by Pioneer of the Nile. These kind have a habit of running big on Derby day at good odds so we’ll keep an eye on him and see how he trains. Probably a better horse than it appears on paper, but that still might not be good enough.

Derby Contenders Still Worth Watching

1. Desert Party – Second place finish in the UAE Derby behind Regal Ransom was just okay, and we think he could still get a piece of the Kentucky Derby superfecta with his best race. Did win the UAE 2000 Guineas on February 12 and could still improve, but he’ll have to based on the records of previous highly thought of contenders who have trained in Dubai before arriving on Kentucky Derby day only to get trounced.

2. Papa Clem –  Ran a decent race to win the Arkansas Derby but the horse he wore down to win, favorite Old Fashioned, not only set a fast pace but also suffered a slab fracture in the race. Received a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for the win and appears to be moving in the right direction, but we think he’d have to improve more than normal to win the Kentucky Derby.  Was also no match for Friesan Fire in the sloppy Louisiana Derby despite getting a relatively easy lead.  He did fight to hold on to second place by a head however, finishing 7 ¼-lengths behind the winner.  Also something to keep in mind from a company perspective - he did finish ahead of Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge in the R B Lewis at Santa Anita in February.

3. Regal Ransom - Another Dubai shipper. Won the UAE Derby in March over Desert Party and does have some speed, but he'll need it, and some improvement, to win the Derby. Pace factor.

4. Giant Oak – Finally got a good trip in the Illinois Derby and ran the race we were waiting for, but at an underlay price. And he still wasn’t good enough to beat Musket Man. We’ll be using him as a longshot underneath in the Kentucky Derby superfecta, just not in the win spot.

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