Travers Stakes Pick

2011 Travers Stakes Picks and Analysis

142nd Running of the Travers Stakes G1

Distance: 1 ¼-miles Surface: Dirt Purse: $1 million

Saratoga, Race 12, Saturday, August 27, 2011

by Kenneth Strong, Professional Thoroughbred Racing Handicapper, Predictem.com

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Travers Stakes Picks

1. Coil

2. Schackleford

3. Stay Thirsty

4. Raison d’Etat

Coil could spring mild upset in 2011 Travers Stakes based on numerous angles

Coil has numerous angles going for him in Saturday’s Travers Stakes at Saratoga and we like the fact that the odds maker made Jim Dandy winner Stay Thirsty the morning-line favorite instead of our horse. While it’s doubtful you’ll get the 3-1 morning-line odds on Coil, we think 2-1 would be more than generous.

Coil comes into the Travers off a better-than-it-looked neck win in the Haskell Invitational, in which he defeated Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice, both fellow Travers entrants with proven class. He also changed his running style in the Haskell, although it happened by accident when he got off to a slow start. A natural speed horse, he dropped back early and still mowed them all down late. A change of running style often signals that a horse is starting to put it all together, and with only six lifetime starts, that may be the case with Coil. And just to sharpen the saw, he breezed a stellar four furlongs in 46 seconds at Saratoga on August 23.

Trainer Bob Baffert won the Travers once before in 2001 with - guess who - Point Given, the sire of Coil. How many angles is that? Need one more? Jockey Martin Garcia and trainer Baffert are 10-for-34 when teaming up in graded stakes this year.

Stay Thirsty was made the 2-1 morning-line favorite based on his big figure win in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga On July 30, but we’re just not convinced that he beat anybody in that race, or that the 106 Beyer Figure he received for that win is legitimate. Prior to the Jim Dandy the best figure Stay Thirsty had run was a 99. Fellow Travers entrant Moonshine Mullin finished second in the Jim Dandy and received a Beyer Figure of 99. The best figure Moonshine Mullin had run before that was an 84 in a listed stakes in Canada.

Stay Thirsty does get the services of top jockey Javier Castellano, who won the Travers last year aboard Afleet Express and in 2006 aboard Bernardini. And trainer Todd Pletcher won the Travers in 2005 with Flower Alley. Also, with a 30 percent chance of rain, note that Stay Thirsty finished second beaten only three-quarters of a length on a sloppy track behind fellow Travers entrant Ruler On Ice.

Coil is unproven on wet tracks. We’ll stick with him regardless.

The race sets up with classy speed horse Shackleford having a good chance of getting the lead by himself or at least without any serious pressure while setting or forcing a slow pace. There just isn’t a lot of speed in the Travers this year. If Coil reverted to his old running style he could open up in here if he really wanted to, but that seems unlikely based on his most recent performance. Instead we see Coil sitting closer than he did in the Haskell, depending on how fast Shackleford wants to go early. Stay Thirsty should also be relatively close early.

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In the second flight stalking the leaders will be Bowman’s Causeway, Moonshine Mullin and just behind them will be Malibu Glow, Rattlesnake Bridge and Raison d’Etat. The out-of-the- clouds ralliers are Ruler On Ice and J W Blue.

If Shackleford, Stay Thirsty and Coil start burning it up on the turn for home it could set up for one of the ralliers, but it’s more likely that Shackleford won’t be forced to do battle until late turn. He’ll then be taken on by Stay Thirsty and should give that one all he can handle, setting the race up for Coil’s late surge.

Raison d’Etat is our favorite among the longshots for the Travers Trifecta and Superfecta. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, he has both the pedigree, being by A. P. Indy, and the trainer, Bill Mott, to get the distance, and he appears to be improving. He finished a green second in the Curlin going 1 1/8-miles at Saratoga in his last start and just gives the impression we haven’t seen the best of him yet. Note that in the second start of his career he finished third beaten 6 ¾-lengths by Malibu Glow on a muddy track. He’s improved since, but we’re not sure how he’ll handle the wet stuff.

Bowman’s Causeway was narrowly beaten in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie in his last going 1 3/16-miles, and he probably could have won that race. The winner, Pender Harbour, came back to win the Breeders’ Stakes at Woodbine. The Travers still represents a big move up in class, but trainer Chad Brown is more than capable of pulling off an upset. At a monster price, he’s worth throwing on some tickets.

If Belmont winner Ruler On Ice gets any kind of pace to run in the Travers he does have upset potential based on class alone. He’s also proven on a wet track. Rattlesnake Bridge is moving up in class and trying a distance further than he’s ever gone before with lower figures than most in here. He will also perform decently on a wet track. If we liked Moonshine Mullin based on his runner up finish in the Jim Dandy, we’d also have to like Stay Thirsty, which we don’t.

J W Blue has narrowly lost twice in lesser stakes company at Delaware and appears to be in over his head despite the presence of trainer Anthony Dutrow and a wet-fast win on his form. Malibu Glow won his first and only start at Saratoga going 1 1/8-miles in allowance company on July 30 but is also moving up in class and trying a distance he’s never attempted before. Longshot players note he broke his maiden at Belmont against good company on a muddy track.

We’re going to use Coil and Shackleford in the top two spots and hope two longshots outfinish Stay Thirsty for the third and fourth positions in the Travers Superfecta and Trifecta. If Stay Thirsty runs out of the money the exotics will pay decently.

Bottom line… Coil to win.

Good Luck!

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