2008 American League Pennant Futures Odds

2008 American League Pennant Futures Odds
by Badger of Predictem.com

If you haven’t checked out my analysis of the 2008 World Series future odds, you can go to that article by clicking here.

Now let’s break it down even more by eliminating the 16 National League teams in the discussion and talk about the futures odds for the 2008 American League Pennant. All of the future odds listed in this article can be wagered on at BodogLife.com.

THE TOP TIER

Boston Red Sox 11-to-5
New York Yankees 11-to-4
Detroit Tigers 3-to-1
Cleveland Indians 5-to-1
Los Angeles Angels 7-to-1

I’ve already analyzed these five teams in my World Series futures article, but I’ll go over each teams chances again briefly.

The Boston Red Sox are once again the favorites because they return, virtually intact, everyone from last year’s team that won it all, so why not start there again. With new blood (CF Jacoby Ellsbury, LHP Jon Lester and RHP Clay Bucholtz) giving the Sox added boost and youth, the BoSox should be able to make up for the loss of Curt Schilling for a prolonged period.

The Yankees new manager, Joe Girardi, will have a veteran lineup to pin their hopes on (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, etc.), but it’s the Yankees pitching that hasn’t been good enough in recent years to get them back on top in the American League. Pitching is a huge question mark again this year. The Yanks are asking rookies Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to stabilize an aging rotation, a tall task for vets in the NY media market, yet alone for rookies.

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The Detroit Tigers added the most pieces in the off-season (3B Miguel Cabrera, LHP Dontrelle Willis, SS Edgar Renteria and OF Jacque Jones), but they didn’t address their bullpen problems. Setup man Joel Zumaya is hurt and out till who knows when, and closer Doug Jones was brought back, but who is going to get it to him in the seventh and eighth innings? The Tigers are just going to try and out- score everyone, which will work until they run into solid pitching in the playoffs.

The Indians are hoping that they can get into the post season this year the same way they did it last year: with solid offense, timely pitching and no mistakes. That may be a tall order though, as they will have to deal with a vastly improved Tigers team in their division this season. Cleveland’s middle infielders (SS Jhonny Peralta, 2B Asdrubal Cabrera), and young outfielders (Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez) will need to perform at high levels. The addition of RHP Masahide Kobayashi makes the Indian bullpen stronger too, but the starting rotation is still too weak after the top two guys.

The Angels have a loaded outfield with Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Mathews and new free-agent acquisition Torii Hunter, but they will need a young infield (Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman) to mature quickly. RHP John Lackey is solid at the top, but the rest of the rotation (Jon Garland, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana) still has a lot to prove with No. 2 starter Kelvim Escobar already hurt.

DUE FOR A BREAKOUT

Seattle Mariners 10-to-1
Chicago White Sox 12-to-1
Toronto Blue Jays 15-to-1
Minnesota Twins 30-to-1
Oakland Athletics 30-to-1
Tampa Bay Rays 30-to-1

Seattle’s acquisition of LHP Erik Bedard (along with free-agent additions RHP Miguel Batista and RHP Carlos Silva) gives the Mariners the best starting pitching staff in a weak AL West Division. The Mariners need something, anything from 1B Richie Sexson or they won’t score enough runs to get into the post season.

Chicago’s addition of SS Orlando Cabrera and OF Nick Swisher will help an offense that was last in the AL in batting average and runs. The Sox will also need rebound seasons from Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome. The White Sox bullpen added good setup men in Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel, but with Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez as the only proven starters in the rotation, will the bullpen even be needed.

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Toronto will have a healthy Vernon Wells and the addition of two former St. Louis Cardinals in SS David Eckstein and 3B Scott Rolen to give the offense more pop. But if the Blue Jays have any hope of breaking through in the toughest division in baseball (i.e. get past the Red Sox and Yankees), they will need more pitching then just ace Roy Halladay and injury-prone starters A.J. Burnett and Gastavo Chacin.

Ironically, it could be the Tampa Bay Rays (yes, they dropped the Devil part of their nickname) that give the Blue Jays a run for third place in the AL East this year. If ace lefty Scott Kazmir’s elbow is more than just tender, you can forget it. But if the Rays starters can just get the ball to the bullpen with a lead, the additions of Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler will help Al Reyes close games. There’s also a rumor that Barry Bonds will join the team to DH. If it becomes reality, and it’s a big if, the Rays could actually hang in the division race past Memorial Day this year.

Minnesota is getting drilled in the media and by fans by dumping Johan Santana in the off-season, but they didn’t have much choice. They did add a nice outfielder in Delmon Young to go along with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the 2-3-4 spots in the lineup. But if LHP Francisco Liriano’s arm is still sore from surgery last season, they Twins will be forced to use Scott Baker as their opening day starter. Yeah right, who is Scott Baker? Exactly.

Oakland sold off just about every functioning piece of a team that barely won 75 games last season anyway, so why not start over. GM Billy Beane might not be done trading either (Joe Blanton?, Huston Street?), as I hear the A’s have some used baseballs on the market for cheap prices. Seriously though, prospects like OF Carlos Gonzalez, LHP Gio Gonzalez and 1B Daric Barton are going to be real good someday, just not likely this year.

LONGSHOTS

Texas Rangers 40-to-1
Kansas City Royals 50-to-1
Baltimore Orioles 80-to-1

Texas continues to try the same formula every season, win with offense and little or no pitching, and it hasn’t worked yet so why do they keep trotting out the same crew? The Rangers added OF’s Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to bolster the offense, but they added pitchers, er … well, I guess that Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla are good enough. Same story, different year for the Rangers.

The Royals are getting better, honestly. They are still a few miracles away from contending, especially in the now loaded AL Central. They added a big bat to the heart of the order in OF Jose Guillen, but it won’t seem like much come midseason. Gil Meche was a bright surprise last year, but the Royals don’t have much after him (Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Brett Tomko) so they really don’t stand much of a chance.

Baltimore is in full rebuilding mode following an off-season where they traded away their best player (SS Miguel Tejada) and their best pitcher (LHP Erik Bedard). OF Adam Jones and potential closer George Sherrill are nice pieces acquired in the Bedard deal, but retreads like Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff and Matt Albers was not nearly enough in the Tejada deal. The Orioles will be the Tampa Bay Rays for the next few years.

POSTSEASON PICKS

Short - I like the Detroit Tigers as the best bet among the favorites. Their lineup is loaded, even more than the Yankees and Red Sox, and if their pitching stays healthy I think they can match 1-2-3 starters with both Boston and especially New York. At 3-to-1, they are worth a small wager in my opinion.

Middle – My middle of the road team is not really middle of the road per say, but I like the Cleveland Indians here. If the Indians can just get through their division, they proved last year they can win a short divisional series in the playoffs. I like the way they play, and I like the makeup of the team, I just don’t think they will have enough to slip past Detroit, Boston or the Yankees. But at 5-to-1 they are a solid bet and not a huge stretch by any means.

Long - My long shot pick this year is the Seattle Mariners. They should contend in a weak AL West because I’m not sure the Angels will have enough pitching. The Mariners will RELY on pitching to get them there. Once in the postseason, if they can just scratch across a few runs each game it could be enough to win the pennant. At 10-to-1 they are a worthy shot.

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