2008 National League Pennant Futures Odds

2008 National League Pennant Futures Odds
by Badger of Predictem.com

If you haven’t checked out my analysis of the 2008 World Series Futures Odds, or my breakdown of the 2008 American League Pennant Futures Odds race, you can view those articles by clicking on the links.

If you have read those previews, then this may be a little redundant. But let’s move on.

Let’s take a deeper look at the Senior Circuit and see who’s who in the race for the 2008 National League Pennant. All of the future odds listed in this article can be wagered on at Bodog. (Bodog Site Review).

WHY PLAY FOR IT, IT’S OVER ALREADY

New York Mets 2-to-1

When the Mets finalized the deal to land pitcher Johan Santana from the Twins, they instantly became the favorite in the National League. Judging by the 2-to-1 odds, most baseball bookies think so too. But let’s hold on just a minute.

Santana goes to the front of a rotation that is good (John Maine, Oliver Perez, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez), but old and injury prone. Pedro and Hernandez are one pitch away from being shelved for a prolonged period. Plus, I’m not so sure Carlos Delgado and Moises Alou are the players they used to be anymore. Are the Mets good and do they figure to be in the pennant chase? Absolutely. Should we just crown them now? Absolutely not.

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THE BEST OF THE REST

Chicago Cubs 6-to-1
Arizona Diamondbacks 13-to-2
Los Angeles Dodgers 7-to-1
Philadelphia Phillies 9-to-1
Colorado Rockies 10-to-1
San Diego Padres 11-to-1
Atlanta Braves 12-to-1
Milwaukee Brewers 12-to-1

The Cubs won the weak NL Central last year, then were swept out of the playoffs by Colorado. But they return just about everyone from last year’s team, so hopes are high for the Cubbies faithful. How quickly rookies Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome develop, whether or not OF Felix Pie ever turns into the player he is at AAA, and how well the backend of the rotation holds up after Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly are all huge factors for the Cubs in 2008. Oh yeah, who is going to close, Kerry Wood or Bob Howry?

The D-Backs added RHP Dan Haren from the A’s to team with Cy-Young winner Brandon Webb to form one of the best one-two rotations in the NL, if not thee best. But they dumped closer Jose Valverde to do it, which means it will be closer by committee, which never seems to work out well. All of the D-Back’s young stars (Steven Drew, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young) played well last year, but can they put it together for another run without a sophomore slump among them.

The Dodgers faded toward the end of last season because they lacked offensive firepower to stay with the D-Backs and Padres. So the Dodgers went out and got Andrew Jones in free agency to add more pop, then paid heavily to add Japanese import RHP Hiroki Kuroda to an already stacked rotation. More importantly, the Dodgers snatched manager Joe Torre from his two-day unemployment to try and bring his winning ways to the West Coast. Torre won’t have the same stacked lineup to trot out every day, but in the NL he won’t need too, especially with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Esteban Loaiza, Kuroda and Chad Billingsley as your rotation.

Philly will once again need to rely on the National League’s most potent offense. With Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley setting the table for Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Pedro Feliz, scoring runs will not be a problem in tiny Citizens Bank Park. Their pitching staff on the other hand has major issues. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers sit at the top of a rotation that needs cheese-throwing Jamie Moyer to be a No. 3 starter. Brad Lidge was brought in to be the closer, but he’s out for most of spring training with a bad knee. Too many pitching questions in my book.

Colorado was a great story making it all the way to the World Series last year with an incredible September and October run, but they won’t sneak up on anyone this year. With Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Matt Holiday and Garrett Atkins in the heart of the order they are solid offensively. It’s the pitching (Kip Wells, Josh Towers and Mark Redman as your 3-4-5 starters) that will need to have back- to-back career years to get even close this season.

San Diego was one game away from making the postseason last year, so Padre management didn’t do a whole lot in the off-season because I’m sure they didn’t think they had to. That was mistake. The Padres actually got older in the off-season, adding Jim Edmonds, Tony Clark and Randy Wolf, but I’m not so sure it helps really. They also picked up a pitcher by the name of Mark Prior, you may have heard of him. If Prior somehow can actually pitch, the Padres pitching (Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux) staff could be good enough to carry what I think will be a weak offense.

Atlanta brought back lefty Tom Glavine to team up with John Smotz, Tim Hudson and possibly Mike Hampton to potentially form one of the oldest rotations in baseball. Mark Kotsay and Yunel Escobar will be asked to fill the offensive holes left behind when Andrew Jones and Edgar Renteria left town. How quickly they can do it, or even IF they can do it, will go a long way toward determining how far the Braves can go in the NL East.

The Brewers core of everyday players includes studs like Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks and NL rookie of the year Ryan Braun. When their youth showed and the Brewers faded in the final weeks last year, they decided to bring in some veteran help by acquiring Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall. A solid starting pitching staff anchored by Ben Sheets (in a contract year, so he NEEDS to stay healthy) should be good enough and a revamped bullpen (Salomon Torres, David Riske and Eric Gagne) that will hopefully not breakdown could get the Brewers past the Cubs and into the postseason since 1982.

THE REST

St. Louis Cardinals 16-to-1
Houston Astros 20-to-1
Cincinnati Reds 20-to-1
San Francisco Giants 40-to-1
Washington Nationals 50-to-1
Florida Marlins 65-to-1
Pittsburgh Pirates 65-to-1

St. Louis still has stud Albert Pujols and the moxie to make a good push, but who’s going to pitch? Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and new acquisition Matt Clement are all still rehabbing injuries and won’t be ready till midseason. They don’t even have an outfielder with more than 380 at-bats in one season. Looks like its rebuilding time.

Houston went out and got SS Miguel Tejada and 2B Kaz Matsui for extra offensive firepower, but now the entire left side of the defense (with 3b Ty Wigginton and LF Carlos Lee) is an error waiting to happen. Plus, other than Roy Oswalt, the Astros don’t have anyone that throws the ball on a consistent basis.

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Cincinnati is another team that just doesn’t have the pitching to matchup with the big boys in the NL. New manager Dusty Baker will get them to play hard, but with an aging Ken Griffey and all-or-nothing Adam Dunn the Reds offense might struggle at times too. The Reds signed closer Francisco Cordero as a free agent, but how can he save games if he never gets handed a lead? Just not enough horses, period.

For the first time in a long time Barry Bonds won’t be hitting third for the Giants. The bigger question is, who will? Without Bonds and Pedro Feliz the offensively challenged Giants are even more offensively challenged. You’ve got to score runs to win. The Giants will have a hard time doing both this year.

The Nationals open a new park, Nationals Park, this season and that’s a good thing because it will keep fans coming out to watch the team play. Offensively the Nationals will be competitive (Nick Johnson, Lastings Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman, Paul Lo Duca), but when your No. 1 starter is an often-injured John Patterson, you know you’re in trouble. Just like all of the teams in this category … no pitching.

Does Florida or Pittsburgh even try to win? Florida gave away their two best players in the off-season, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. But at least they did something. Pittsburgh did absolutely nothing to a team that won just 68 games last year. Enough said.

PICKS

Short – Assuming you don’t want to just put it all on the Mets and walk away, my short team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. At 13-to-2, I like their chances a little better than the Cubs. Better starting pitching is the key, although trading a closer that saved 47 of your 90 wins last year will come back to bite them.

Middle – I’m going with the Los Angeles Dodgers here at 7-to-1. Their pitching staff is stacked top-to-bottom. When Jason Schmidt is your No. 5 starter, you are stacked. I’m still not impressed with their offense, but I think they will have just enough to get by. Plus, having Joe Torre pushing buttons in the playoffs gives them a huge advantage.

Long - My long shot to win the NL pennant is the 12-to-1 Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are still one of the youngest teams in baseball, so a five to 10 game improvement in the win column is not much of a stretch. That puts them ahead of the Cubs in a weak NL Central, and we all watched what the Rockies did last year once you get into the postseason. All the Brewers need is a chance.

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