2009 Milwaukee Brewers Team Preview

2009 Milwaukee Brewers Team Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com

For the first time in over 25 years the Milwaukee Brewers will enter a Spring Training as a playoff baseball team looking to get back in again in 2009. Their performance in the National League Divisional playoffs versus the Phillies (out in four games) left a lot to be desired, but at least they made it there and had a chance.

The Brewers had a chance last season because of their trade for C.C. Sabathia, who put the Crew on his back and carried them to a 90-72 record and into the postseason. The big lefty, who went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA including seven complete games and 3 complete-game shutouts as a Brewer in just 17 starts, put the exclamation point on the season and cast his future as a rich man with his playoff-clinching victory over the Cubs on the final day of the season.

General manager Doug Melvin’s gamble last year paid off with a playoff appearance, but this year he may pay for that one-hit wonder. Sabathia is gone now, and so is longtime staff ace Ben Sheets, so young, home-grown pitchers Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra will need to pitch beyond their years for the Brewers to repeat last year’s performance in 2009.

The Brewers will do it with a new skipper too, as Ken Macha was hired to run the ship after Ned Yost was let go down the stretch last season. Ironically, two of the men that Macha was chosen over, Willie Randolph and interim-manager Dale Sveum, agreed to join Macha’s staff and will serve as the bench coach and hitting coach, respectively.

2009 World Series Odds – 40-to-1
2009 NL Pennant Odds – 17-to-1
2009 NL Central Division Odds – 5-to-1

(All of the listed odds are those currently offered at Sportsbook.com)

Like most teams in Major League Baseball, the Brewers have concerns with their pitching. The oddsmakers clearly agree, as they are at the same odds level (40-to-1) as the Marlins, Giants and Reds, three teams the Brewers still think the are better than despite their staff woes.

Offense – One of the reasons for optimism for the Brewers is that their young everyday lineup is still growing up and maturing. With the core of this team still all under the age of 26, there really is no way of telling how much better they can all get.

Ryan Braun (37 HR, 106 RBI) and Prince Fielder (34 HR, 102 RBI) provide the bop in the heart of the lineup. Do-everything right fielder Corey Hart had his second-straight 20-20 season, getting 20 homeruns to go with his 23 steals. Those three together with shortstop J. J. Hardy (24 HR, 74 RBI) and leadoff hitter Ricky Weeks form the young nucleus of talent that Macha will build from this season.

Keep an eye on the progress of Weeks during the ’09 season, as new bench coach Willie Randolph just happens to be a former second baseman, the same position the talented (89 R, 19 S, .342 OBP) but underperforming (.234 BA, 15 E) Weeks plays. A mentor role by Randolph could finally help Weeks achieve in his fifth season in the bigs.

The Brewers then surround the young nucleus with solid veterans up the middle with Mike Cameron (25 HR, 142 K in 120 G) in centerfield and Jason Kendall. Bill Hall (.225, 15 HR) had lasik-eye surgery in the offseason to try and keep hold of playing time in front of vet Mike Lamb and top-prospect Mat Gamel at third.

Pitching – If there is such a thing as being okay after losing Sabathia and Sheets from the starting rotation, then the Brewers are about as okay as it gets. The Brewers rotation will hinge upon two major questions: if young hurlers Gallardo and Parra can step up, and which Dave Bush will the Brewers get this season?

Gallardo missed all but four games last year with a knee injury, but he appears to be healthy again and has the command and the moxie to become an ace. The lefty Parra (10-8, 4.39 ERA in 29 starts) is at times dominating, only to lose it in a snap and loose control of the game. They both need to progress as big leaguers to give the Brewers a righty-lefty combo at the top of the rotation.

Last year Bush seemed to turn the corner at midseason, going 7-3 with a 3.23 ERA in his final 18 starts of the season. If the Brewers get that Bush, and not the one that was 2-7 and getting tagged around so bad he was demoted to Triple-A at one point, then the Brewers could survive the season. They also have veteran Jeff Suppan (177 IP) and free-agent pickup Braden Looper (199 IP with the Cardinals) to eat innings at the back end of the rotation, so the Crew is okay at the start of its post-C.C.-n-Sheets rotation.

Bullpen – After Eric Gagne flamed out as the Brewers closer in 2008, Salomon Torres came on to convert 28 of his 35 chances as his replacement. But Torres walked away from a nearly 4-million player- option in his contract and retired this offseason, leaving the Brewers and their bullpen in dire straights.

The Brewers went out and filled the hole with all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, who converted 30 of 34 chances in San Diego last season before he was shown the door. Hoffman will need to be stellar, as the Brewers have nobody proven behind him in this year’s pen.

Todd Coffey and his heavy sinker (2.78 GO/AO in 26 games as Brewer last year), Carlos Villanueva and former Atlanta Braves righty Jorge Julio (34 K in 30 IP) will compete for the job as set-up man to Hoffman. The Brewers will also have a healthy David Riske back after arm troubles limited him to 42 innings in 2008, so they should be able to get Hoffman the ball for save situations. Mitch Stetter will replace Brian Shouse as the one-out lefty specialist in the pen.

Gambling Review/Preview

Betting on all of the Brewers games in 2008 would have netted you a positive bankroll, as they finished +589 last season (49-32, +345 home; 41-40, +244 on road). However, they were a terrible runline team (-934) and trended toward playing under the total (69-81).

Bush not only rebounded on the field, but he also rebounded at the window for bettors towards the end of ‘08. The Brewers went 15-14 in his 29 starts for a +115 take. Suppan also won as a starter (+111), so you should be able to find good underdog odds to pounce on when those two are on the bump.

At 40-to-1, the Brewers are considered a sizable long shot to win the World Series in 2009. Realistically, their offense could put together a terrific season and carry them into the postseason once again. But once there, their pitching would be exposed and it is too weak to be worthy of a long shot wager on the futures board.

The best futures option with the Brewers is the 5-to-1 odds on the NL Central Division title. If the Cubs don’t win it, the next best option is the Crew, and 5-to-1 is enough to get me to throw some lunch money at it.

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