2009 Chicago Cubs Team Preview

2009 Chicago Cubs Team Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com

The Chicago Cubs and their fans believed and prayed the Cubbies would finally end their 100-year championship drought in 2008, but those dreams faded quickly when the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers swept them in the first-round of the National League Divisional playoffs.

The Cubbies basically ran the table start-to-finish in the NL Central during regular season, clinching it by 7.5 games ahead of the Brewers. Their 97-64 record was the best record in the National League last season, but it wasn’t enough to get them past their ghosts of years past in the playoffs.

Despite being one of the best teams on the field last year, the Cubs had a higher than usual amount of player turnover in the offseason. The Cubs allowed free agent closer Kerry Wood to walk and traded away a plethora of contributors (Mark DeRosa, Felix Pie, Michael Wuertz) to get a bunch of new faces (Milton Bradley, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman) in order to try and change things for what they hope is a better chance at a title in 2009.

2009 World Series Odds – 7-to-1
2009 NL Pennant Odds – 3-to-1
2009 NL Central Division Odds – -1.6-to-1

(All of the listed odds are those currently offered at Sportsbook.com)

With all of the moves general manager Jim Hendry made in the offseason, the Cubs are an extremely different team on the field in 2009. They’re still real good, but there are a few question marks that could make or break the season.

Offense – Left fielder Alfonso Soriano was quoted during the offseason as being open to moving out of the leadoff role, so look for the Cubs to give shortstop Ryan Theriot (.387 OBA, 85 R, 22 SB) a chance at the role in Spring Training. If it works, it means the Cubs would have Soriano (29 HR, 75 RBI), first baseman Derek Lee (20 HR, 90 RBI) and third baseman Aramis Ramirez (27 HR, 111 RBI) hitting two- three-four in the lineup. Which you would agree ain’t too shabby.

Free agent right fielder Milton Bradley was brought in to provide protection behind Ramirez in the order, but Bradley represents a huge "if" for the Cubs in 2009. If he’s the player he was in Texas last summer (.321 BA, .436 OBP, 22 HR, 77 RBI), then it will make the Cubs offense much better then the one that scored 855 runs, the 5th- highest total in MLB last year. Last year was his most healthy year since 2004, playing in 126 games, but he is injury-prone and there’s always the extra baggage of his ego that you must take into consideration.

Trading DeRosa means that journeyman Aaron Miles and utility man Mike Fontenot will compete for the job at second base, but neither of them will be able to replace the one-two punch the Cubs had with DeRosa rookie of the year catcher Geovay Soto at the bottom of the order. The Cubs will also be going with a platoon of Reed Johnson and the disappointing Kosuke Fukudome in centerfield.

Pitching – The Cubs rotation is arguably the best in the National League. The Cubs top four starters consisting of Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden is simply unmatched in the NL Central, if not all of the NL.

Lilly and Dempster each won 17 games last season, and when combined with the staff ace Zambrano (14 wins), they helped the Cubs win 48 games in 2008. Harden, who won five of his 12 starts as a Cub after the trade last season, started the same amounts games in ’08, 25, as he did his previous three year combined, so there’s always the worry of injury with Harden.

Former Notre Dame two-sport star Jeff Samardzija, lefty Sean Marshall, veteran righty Jon Leiber and former Met castoff Heilman will compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, but you can expect the losers to remain in the bullpen.

Bullpen – Gregg was brought in from Florida to provide insurance if Carlos Marmol fails as the new Cubs closer. Marmol has been more or less groomed for the role the past few seasons (7 saves in 9 opportunities in ’08), and this is the year the Cubs will ask him to sink or swim. Marmol and his electric slider make him the ideal type of pitcher to close games (i.e. a strikeout pitcher -114 k in 87 IP), so the Cubs brought in Gregg to hedge their bet.

Gregg did have 29 saves as a Marlin last year, but he also blew nine saves, which is why moving him to the 8th inning could prove to be a coup for the Cubs.

Chad Gaudin (also came in Harden trade), Chad Fox and Luis Vizcaino offer right-handed depth in the bullpen, while Neal Cotts (and possibly Marshall if he loses the 5th-starter derby) provides a lefty (ies) for situational baseball in the late innings.

Gambling Review/Preview

The Cubs and their 97 wins made them one of the best teams to wager on in 2008, with a nice +1545 finish in the money, the 5th-best tally in all of baseball. Most of that money was won at Wrigley Field, where they went 55-26 (+1148) and they also played over the total with an 81-74 record for ’08.

Dempster alone accounted for most of the money, as his breakthrough season helped the Cubs win 22 of his 33 starts and would have profited you a cool +789 if you would have wagered on all 33 of them. Lilly was nearly as good (22 of 34 starts) netting +693, Harden was a combined +868 (9-4 in Oakland, 9-3 with Cubs), and Zambrano wasn’t chopped liver either (20 of 30, +506), giving the Cubs four pitchers in the top-40 of the money list last season.

There’s no doubt they are hands down the favorite in the NL Central, and if you want to bet on that future you’ll have to eat some chalk, as they are -1.6 to 1 odds at Sportsbook.com). You’ll get better bang for your buck by wagering on the 3-to-1 odds as NL pennant winners, a bet with a legitimate chance to cash in my opinion.

There’s no doubt that one year the Cubs decade-long World Series “curse” will end, but something tells me this is not the year. If you are a true believer, at 7-to-1 you’ll get better odds than most of the top teams in MLB, making them a good option as a short in a short- medium-long approach to future’s betting.

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