2009 Los Angeles Dodgers Team Preview

2009 Los Angeles Dodgers Team Preview - Betting Odds

The Los Angeles Dodgers were swimming along with the rest of the mediocre pack in the National League West Division last season when they traded for controversial slugger Manny Ramirez at the trading deadline. Manny hit .396 with 17 homeruns and 53 runs batted in during his 53-game stay in Dodgertown, and the Dodgers rode his hot bat and the spark he provided the team all the way into the second round of the NL playoffs.

The spark wore off in four games versus the eventual World Series champion Phillies, but the Dodgers and Manny-being-Manny made L.A. buzz with baseball excitement once again. This year they will look to improve on their 84-78 record in 2008, but with the long list of free agent departures in Loa Angeles, if the Dodgers are able to do it they will do it with a dramatically different team than they did in ’08.

In fact, as of press time, the Dodgers still have yet to make any significant offseason roster moves other than letting players go. Gone are key contributors like pitchers Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Chan Ho Park and Brad Penny. And the on-again, off-again courtship of Manny to bring him back in Dodger Blue is in the off-again stage right now. They can still recover to win the weak NL West again, but they won’t do it with the team they have on the field at the start of Spring Training.

2009 World Series Odds – 25-to-1
2009 NL Pennant Odds – 10-to-1
2009 NL East Division Odds – 1.4-to-1

(All of the listed odds are those currently offered at Sportsbook.com)

As mentioned, we really can’t analyze the 2009 version of the Dodgers until we know what pieces of the puzzle are in the box. As is, the Dodgers are a young team that fall just a few pieces short in both pitching and hitting.

Offense – Shortstop Rafael Furcal is the most likely leadoff candidate, since speedy left fielder Juan Pierre doesn’t hit well enough to stay in the lineup consistently. Furcal only played in 36 games last year, but he had a .378 on-base percentage and nine runs in the Dodgers eight postseason games in ’08, so he looks like he may be capable of filling the role at the top.

Catcher Russell Martin, who has quickly become the benchmark catcher in the NL (.385 OBP, 87 R, 13 HR, 69 RBI), is perhaps the ideal No. 2-hitter in the NL as well.

The Dodgers re-signed third baseman Casey Blake in the offseason after he hit 10 homeruns and drove in 23 runs during his 58-game stay in L.A. last year. Blake, along with young outfielders Matt Kemp (.290, 18 HR, 76 RBI) and Andre Ethier (20 HR, 77 RBI), and young first baseman James Looney (.289, 13 HR, 90 RBI) form the heart of the Dodgers order. A heart that would gain serious clout, as well as controversy, if it were to somehow insert Manny into the middle to be the anchor.

Pitching – Without Lowe, and the now retired future Hall of Fame righty Maddux, the Dodger rotation will go into the season by just bumping up everyone on the depth chart.

Young righty Chad Billingsley, who went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA in 32 starts last year, becomes the de-facto ace of the staff. Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73) moves up to the No. 2 slot, and free-agent pickup Randy Wolf (12-12 4.30) mans the third spot, but after him it is anybody’s guess who will stay healthy enough to man the other rotation spots.

Veterans Jason Schmidt, Jeff Weaver and Shawn Estes were brought in to compete with youngster Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 4.26 in 21 starts in ’08) and top-prospect James McDonald for the final two rotation spots.

Bullpen – The Dodgers also have some big questions at the back-end of their bullpen, since former closer Takashi Saito is now gone as a free agent.

Jonathan Broxton, who converted 14 of his 22 chances last year while Saito was injured, will get the first crack at the closer job. But if he fails to hold it, lefty Hong-Chih Kuo (96 K in 80 IP) could be the short-term replacement.

Free-agent pickup Guillermo Mota (from Brewers) and Cory Wade will provide most of the late-inning setup work from the right-handed side of the mound, while Eric Stults and Scott Elbert will compete for the lefty-specialist job out of the pen now that Joe Beimel has moved on as a free agent.

Gambling Review/Preview

As is the case with teams that underachieve and flirt all season long with a .500 record, the Dodgers were not a good wager in 2008. A really bad road record at the window (36-45, -1071) killed any chance at making money as they finished down -829 for the year. They were also a poor runline team, with a -197 tally, and trended toward the under (73-83 versus the total) with a weakened lineup and a big ballpark.

Sharp bettors no doubt noted the job Kershaw did as a starter after his callup, as the Dodgers won 13 of his 21 starts to finish +457 in ’08. Billingsley (16-16, -421) and Kuroda (15-16, -495) did not help bettors stay afloat last year, but with the bump up the rotation they may face better (maybe even underdog) odds in 2009.

Let’s face it, without knowing if Manny Ramirez is coming back or not, stay away from any Dodger-related wager with a 10-foot pole.

As the team stands today, 25-to-1 odds as World Series champs and 10- to-1 odds as NL Champs looks way too bleak to even consider. Oddsmakers are assuming on Manny’s return, and even if he does return, I’m not so sure 25-to-1 and 10-to-1 are good enough to make me hit the hip for my wallet.

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