2009 New York Mets Team Preview

2009 New York Mets Team Preview

by Badger of Predictem.com

For the New York Mets players, coaches and faithful fans the 2008 season ended in the same fashion as the 2007 season … with bitter disappointment. Once again the Mets were unable to hold onto a lead and a spot in the postseason, this time coughing up the National League wildcard spot to the Milwaukee Brewers with a 4-2 loss to the Florida Marlins in the final game of the regular season.

After struggling out of the gate in 2008 the Mets fired manager Willie Randolph near midseason and replaced him with interim manager Jerry Manuel. Manuel got them closer, but once again the Mets final record of 89-73 kept them just three games back of the NL East champion Phillies and a game away from the wildcard.

In typical New York fashion, general manager Omar Minaya spared no expense to try and reverse what has become a trend in the past few seasons by going out and getting one of the biggest names in the free agent market, closer Francisco Rodriguez. Manuel also had the interim tag lifted soon after the season ended, so it will be his job to keep the Mets ship afloat in 2009.

2009 World Series Odds – 8-to-1
2009 NL Pennant Odds – 3-to-1
2009 NL East Division Odds – 1.3-to-1

(All of the listed odds are those currently offered at any site in our Sportsbook Reviews section.

With the exception of the major overhaul of the bullpen, the 2009 Mets lineup will have a similar look and feel to it. However, the Mets will be playing in a brand new stadium in 2009, moving over from Shea Stadium into their new digs at Citi Field, although there is already talk that since Citigroup took some of the federal bailout money they might have to give up the naming rights to the stadium. So who knows what the stadium will be called by midseason.

Offense – Minaya spent the entire offseason revamping the bullpen and the pitching staff, so the everyday lineup won’t be much different than it was in 2008. Depending on your point of view, that could be good or bad.

Shortstop Jose Reyes is perhaps the best table-setter in the National League, finishing last year with 56 steals and 113 runs scored. David Wright (33 HR, 124 RBI, 115 R) put up MVP type numbers until he too faded down the stretch in clutch time, and center fielder Carlos Beltran produced in typical fashion (27 HR, 112 RBI, 116 R) despite playing injured most of the season.

The huge question mark for the Mets will be aging first baseman Carlos Delgado. Delgado hit 38 homeruns and drove in 115 runs last season, but he’ll turn 37 during the season and who really knows how much he has left in the tank.

The Mets will also go into the season with Ryan Church (.276, 12 HR, 49 RBI) and Daniel Murphy (.313 in 131 AB) as their starting right and left fielders, respectively. Backing them up is Fernando Tatis, who enjoyed a comeback season of sorts last year batting .297 with 11 HR and 47 RBI in 273 at bats. But it doesn’t take Bill James to figure out that these three could become the weak link in the Mets lineup, putting even more pressure on the pitching staff to perform over their heads in 2009.

Pitching – After spending the big bucks to go out and trade for Johan Santana last offseason, the Mets tried to land a few more big name starting pitchers only to lose out in the end to other teams (namely, the other team in New York). Santana went 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 234-plus innings, so there’s no doubt the Mets have a No. 1 starter that can match up with anyone else in the league.

After that, it gets sketchy.

Righties Mike Pelfrey (13-11, 3.72) and John Maine (10-8, 4.18) both pitched well despite being young and inexperienced at the start of the 2008 season. If both pitchers make the normal progression and continue to trend toward the upside, as the Mets are hoping and predicting, then they should have a solid 1-through-3 in the rotation.

The Mets did sign a free agent starter, but it was one of their own, when the resigned inconsistent lefty Oliver Perez in early February. At times Perez can be unhittable and dominate, but more often than not he fails to repeat his delivery mechanics which results in a whopping 105 walks and 167 hits in just 194 innings (1.40 WHIP). He’s the type of pitcher that makes managers go gray prematurely and gnaw their fingernails down to nubs.

Tim Redding (10-11, 4.95 with Washington), Nelson Figueroa (3-3, 4.57 in six starts with the Mets), Freddy Garcia (missed all of 2008 with shoulder injury) and rookies Jonathon Niese and Bobby Parnell will compete for the final starting spot in the rotation.

Bullpen – With 29 blown saves, getting some late innings help in the bullpen was priority number one for Minaya and the Mets this offseason, and they addressed it big time.

Not only did the Mets sign K-Rod and his record 62 saves to close out games, but they also traded for righty J.J. Putz from the Seattle Mariners to be the 8th-inning setup man for K-Rod. Putz had 15 saves for the Mariners last season and has experience in late-inning pressure situations.

With Putz and K-Rod at the back end, it moves Duaner Sanchez and lefty-specialist Pedro Feliciano up into the 7th-inning role where they are more likely to thrive in.

Gambling Review/Preview

Betting on the Mets was a losing proposition in 2008, as they finished the regular season at -541 with nearly identical home-road splits (48-33, -279 home; 41-40, -262 road). They were however one of the best teams to place a runline wager on, as they finished at +1200 for the season. Their bullpen woes also made them a great team to bet on the over, as they went 84-65 versus the total in 2008.

Sports bettors will surely be watching to see if Redding wins the 5th starters role, as he was +1386 as a starter last season when the Nationals won 20 of his 33 starts. Despite large odds every time out, Santana also came home a winner in 2008 at +453 when the Mets won 22 of his 34 starts.

At 8-to-1 odds, oddsmakers consider the Mets a top four team to win the World Series behind just the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs. But unlike those three teams, I just don’t see the top-to-bottom studs at every position and one-through-five depth in the rotation on the Mets roster like I do with the aforementioned favorites. Could it happen, sure. Will it happen, unlikely.

Adding K-Rod to the back-end is the type of acquisition that square bettors will take to the window, hence to low odds from the bookmakers. But without a formidable lineup, and top-line starting pitching, how many chances will K-Rod really get to nail games down in the 9th? The Mets will be in the thick of the chase all the way until October again this year, but at the odds they are receiving, they are just not a futures bet worth taking at this point.

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