2009 MLB Predictions

2009 Major League Baseball Preview and Predictions
by Badger of Predictem.com

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the surprise Tampa Bay Rays in four games to win the 2008 World Series title last October, so the quest to knock them off the throne begins Sunday, April 5th, when the reigning champs host the Atlanta Braves in the primetime season opener.

Teams will have over a month of spring training to get ready for the 2009 season, due to the renewal of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) in March, so there are still lots of position battles, rotation spots and injuries waiting to happen to instantly change the landscape of the game.

But for now, let’s take an early season look at each division in Major League Baseball and see what future odds look to be promising for ’09. All of the odds listed are currently available at www.Sportsbook.com.

2009 American League East

Odds to win the Division:

New York Yankees : -130
Boston Red Sox : 2-to-1
Tampa Bay Rays : 4-to-1
Toronto Blue Jays : 20-to-1
Baltimore Orioles : 100-to-1

The Yankees and Red Sox both reloaded in the offseason to create even more separation between them, the have’s, and the bottom half or the have not’s of the AL East. Even last year’s surprise division winner, the Tampa Bay Rays, can’t compete with the everyday lineup and the five-deep pitching staff the Yankees and Sox can trot out.

Toronto already has its best everyday player hurting (Vernon Wells – out with bad hamstring), and their top pitcher (Roy Halladay) is already rumored to be a trade-deadline candidate for teams in contention, so it’s not really worth discussing their 20-to-1 chance in the AL East. Baltimore’s No. 1 starter Jeremy Guthrie probably wouldn’t even crack the rotation on any of the other teams in the division, so that tells you all you really need to know about the Orioles.

AL East Prediction: Yankees – But I’m not eating the chalk in order to wager a future bet on them, so even though I think the Yanks will win the AL East, I’m not putting money on it at less than even money.

2009 American League Central

Odds to win the Division:

Minnesota Twins : 1.8-to-1
Cleveland Indians : 2-to-1
Chicago White Sox : 4-to-1
Detroit Tigers : 4-to-1
Kansas City Royals : 15-to-1

The American League Central is by far the most wide-open division in all of baseball, with four teams that have a legitimate shot at winning it and one perpetual doormat that is slowly closing the gap.

To some it may be surprising to see the Twins considered as the favorite in the division, but they are the healthiest and most stable team in the AL Central. With Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau leading the offense, and a young and solid rotation of Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn all returning, it’s not surprising to see oddsmakers considering the Twins as the team to beat in the division.

Cleveland and Detroit both folded under heavy expectations in 2008, but both of them were due to multiple and untimely injuries. Cleveland was unable to replace the offense it lost when DH Travis Hafner and catcher Victor Martinez struggled with injuries in ’08. Detroit was unable to keep games close when pitchers Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis were lost for the year. If the Indians offense returns in tact, and the Tigers pitching does as well, they should be able to stay in the pennant race all season.

The White Sox, winners of the Central in ’08, went through some considerable turnover during the winter by trading Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher and allowing malcontent shortstop Orlando Cabrera to walk away as a free agent. All three were important pieces that must be replaced in order to repeat in 2009.

The Royals are getting closer, but they would need some breakout performances from youngsters to stay in the race all year. The Royals top three pitchers (Gil Meche, Zach Greinke and Brian Bannister) are as solid as the rest of the division’s rotations, but even with the addition of Coco Crisp and first baseman Mike Jacobs the Royals offense may struggle to score runs.

AL Central Prediction: Tigers – So much was expected from the Tigers in ’08, and they failed so miserably, that they enter the 2009 season sort of under the radar. If they had a legitimate closer I’d like their chances more, but at 4-to-1, they offer the best risk-reward payout for a future as AL Central winners.

2009 American League West

Odds to win the Division:

Los Angeles Angels : -225
Oakland A’s : 3-to-1
Texas Rangers : 6-to-1
Seattle Mariners : 12-to-1

The Angels have dominated the division in recent years, and with the addition of Bobby Abreu and Brain Fuentes they not only have addressed their losses of Garret Anderson and Francisco Rodriguez, they may have actually improved their chances.

Oakland landed outfielder Matt Holliday in the offseason, but if the A’s don’t hang around in the race long enough he may be traded before the deadline. Jason Giambi is back, and if Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis (both had offseason surgery) are both healthy enough to play everyday, the A’s should have enough offense. They just don’t have enough pitching.

Texas and Seattle have both thrown it into rebuilding mode, although you could argue the Rangers have been stuck in rebuilding mode for a decade now. Texas will be playing rookies at short (Elvis Andrus) and first (Chris Davis) on opening day, while the Mariners brought in fan- favorite Ken Griffey Jr. to sell tickets while they retool the organization. Both of these teams will be worth watching as the trade deadline approaches, as they both may be wholesale sellers with a plethora of big names (Michael Young, Kevin Millwood, Adrian Beltre, Erik Bedard) available for the right price.

AL West Prediction: Angels – Again, going way out on a limb here. The Angels are the class of the division, but at -2.25-to-1 they are not really a worthy future. If you want a dark horse, throw some change on the 12-to-1 Mariners as their rotation (Hernandez, Bedard, Silva, Washburn and Rowland-Smith) could be the best in the division.

2009 National League East

Odds to win the Division:

New York Mets : 1.3-to-1
Philadelphia Phillies : 1.5-to-1
Atlanta Braves : 5-to-1
Florida Marlins : 6-to-1
Washington Nationals : 50-to-1

The Mets collapse down the stretch for a second year in a row prompted them to go out and get closer Francisco Rodriguez and his MLB-best 62 saves to try and avoid the same fate in 2009. But will it be enough to surpass the Phillies, as the reigning champs replaced Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez as they too try to make another go of it all.

Atlanta is the sleeper in the NL East, as they added some solid pitching in the offseason by signing Derek Lowe and trading for Javier Vazquez. If Chipper Jones can stay healthy enough to play 150 games, and Jeff Francoeur rebounds from a horrible ’08, the Braves might have enough pieces on offense to stay in the race till the end.

Florida still has the talent to compete, they just don’t have the payroll to make a late-season acquisition to put them over the edge. Another mid-August fade is probably in the cards for Fin fans this season.

Washington … well, let’s not go there. Adam Dunn will hit 40 homeruns and strike out 200 times and the Nats will be 20-plus games back by July 4th, so save your money on any ideas of them pulling off a miracle.

NL East Prediction: Phillies – With basically all of the pieces back from last year’s championship, I’m staying with them until they are knocked off. But at even money (1.5-to-1), betting on them to win the NL East is a worthless future proposition. Even though I think the Phillies win the league, I’m more willing to wager on the 5-to-1 Braves as far as a future bet goes.

2009 National League Central

Odds to win the Division:

Chicago Cubs : -160
Milwaukee Brewers : 5-to-1
Cincinnati Reds : 6-to-1
St. Louis Cardinals : 6-to-1
Houston Astros : 15-to-1
Pittsburgh Pirates : 30-to-1

The Cubs lead the Central nearly tape-to-tape last year and are heavy favorites to do it again in ’09. However, the Cubs have some bigger questions in the coming season than most people think. Can Carlos Marmol handle to closer role? Will they be able to replace Mark DeRosa at second? Will Milton Bradley’s body hold up before he blows up?

Milwaukee no longer has CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets, so their pitching might not good enough to keep pace despite having Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the heart of the division’s deepest lineup. The opposite could be said for the Reds, who seem to have the pitching (Harrang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez) but not enough offense to stay in the race all season.

The Cardinals return to the top of the division hinges on the health of starter Chris Carpenter. If he’s back to full strength, a big if after missing two straight seasons basically, the Cards have the best combination of pitching and hitting in the Central hands down. They still don’t have a closer though, which could be their only downfall.

Houston still has some big names on its roster, guys like Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada, but a lack of pitching behind Oswalt will probably make the Astros sellers of those big names at the deadline.

The Pirates are, well … um, not good. With zero changes to a team that only won 67 games in ’08, it’s amazing the good fans of Pittsburgh even buy tickets to watch this team.

NL Central Prediction: Cardinals – A healthy Chris Duncan and the addition of Khalil Greene at short will boost the offense. If Carpenter can bolster the rotation with Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer and Pineiro, they may not need a legit closer to win the NL Central at 6-to-1.

2009 National League West

Odds to win the Division:

Los Angeles Dodgers : 1.4-to-1
Arizona Diamondbacks : 1.6-to-1
San Francisco Giants : 4-to-1
Colorado Rockies : 6-to-1
San Diego Padres : 20-to-1

The Dodgers are still the odds-on favorites in the division, even though the soap opera between them and Manny Ramirez has yet to resolve itself. Even with Ramirez, the Dodgers may not have enough pitching to stay in the race down the stretch with Lowe and Brad Penny now gone.

The Diamondbacks look like the best in the West on paper. They easily have the deepest staff with Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Doug Davis now joined by newcomer Jon Garland. If their young offense continues to improve, and they find someone to close games in the pen (Chad Qualls was only 9 of 17 in 2008), they could do more damage in the NL then just win the West.

The Giants are one of the only teams in MLB that have more pitching than hitting. Youngsters Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Noah Lowry are joined by vets Barry Zito and future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson to form a deep starting staff. The Giants problem is that catcher Bengie Molina (a career .277 hitter) is their best offensive threat.

The Rockies and Padres are in rebuilding mode and not likely to contend, not even in a weak NL West. The Padres Jake Peavy could become a Sabathia-type of pickup at the deadline this year. The Rockies will put up impressive offensive numbers in Coors Field again in ’09, but a lack of pitching will cause them to fade at the tape.

NL West Prediction: Diamondbacks – The D-Backs have the best combination of everyday players and pitching in the West, so despite the meager 1.6-to-1 odds, I’m picking them to win the division. If the Giants can get a run-producer (maybe a Matt Holliday or even Manny Ramirez) by the trade deadline, a small flyer at 4-to-1 odds could pay off big.

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