2009 WBC Picks and Predictions

2009 World Baseball Classic Picks and Predictions

by Badger of Predictem.com

The inaugural World Baseball Classic came and went three years ago without a whole lot of fanfare, mostly because the whole thing was put together so quickly and haphazardly that most baseball fans barely had time to figure out what was going on, yet alone who was playing for whom.

The WBC part two will be different.

Thanks in part to the collaborative effort of Major League Baseball and ESPN, this year’s WBC will definitely not lack in fanfare or publicity. In fact, all of the games will be shown in some form or fashion on one of ESPN’s networks (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN360.com or ESPN Deportes), so you’re sure to be able to catch some of the action even by accident if you so choose.

Plus, unlike the original, many of the big name players ARE participating for their country this time around. The Major League ball clubs got some assurances from WBC organizers that pitchers will be on strict pitch counts and innings limits after taking a lot of heat for “throwing out” some of the pitcher’s arms from last time. Position players have also been given a green light from team officials to participate, unlike last time when most team’s were worried about injuries and openly expressed their unwillingness to let the big boys play.

With defending WBC champion Japan set to kick off round one action Thursday in a game versus China in the Tokyo Dome, let’s take a look at the teams, the pools and the odds for each and see if you can’t turn the WBC into a money-making opportunity. All of the odds listed are currently available at www.Sportsbook.com.

Pool A – Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan
China vs. Japan, 4:30 AM EST, Thursday, March 5th
Taiwan vs. South Korea, 4:30 AM EST, Friday March 6th

Odds to win the Pool:

Japan : -2.5-to-1
Taiwan : 2.5-to-1
South Korea : 5-to-1
China : 20-to-1

The defending champs are the odds-on favorites to emerge out of this pool, not just because they’re playing in their home country, but because the team is stacked with more major-leaguer’s than the other three teams in the pool.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-0, 13 IP, 1.38 ERA in first WBC) and Shunsuke Watanabe (13 IP, 1.98 ERA) give the Japanese team a solid one-two punch at the top of their rotation, while major-leaguers Ichiro Suzuki, Kenji Johijma, Akinori Iwamura and Kosuke Fukudome headline the lineup. As a team the Japanese hit .311 and scored 60 runs in their eight game march to the first WBC title, so offense shouldn’t be a problem.

The rest of the pool is hard to handicap because of the lack of familiar names.

China returns the most players from last time, led by infielders Guangbiao Liu (.333 in 9 AB), Yufeng Zhang and Lingfeng Sun and pitchers Kun Chen, Chenhao Li, Li Zhang.

South Korea pitcher Min Han Son (2-0, 7.1 IP, 2.45 ERA) is back to front the Korean rotation, along with Indians outfielder Shin Soo Choo, they give the Koreans hope. The Koreans did make it into the semifinals last time, so just because they don’t have major-leaguers doesn’t mean they can’t play the game. Their WBC-leading pitching staff ERA of 2.00 means they certainly know how to pitch.

Taiwan returns a few players from last time (P Po-Hsuan Keng and outfielder Wei-Chu Lin), but even their roster has quite a bit of turnover from the first WBC three years ago.

Prediction: Japan – Unless you’re a third-shift worker or a night owl, you probably won’t be awake to watch these games anyway, so if you wager lay the heavy juice on the favorites. If you feel (like I do) that taking the favorite is like kissing your sister, then take a shot at the 5-to-1 South Korea team to win the pool over the host Japanese.

Pool B – Foro Sol Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico
South Africa vs. Cuba, 3 PM EST, Sunday, March 8th
Australia vs. Mexico, 10 PM EST, Sunday, March 8th

Odds to win the Pool:

Cuba : -4-to-1
Mexico : 2-to-1
Australia : 20-to-1
South Africa : 40-to-1

You can bet the Cubans are itching to get back to the WBC after losing to the Japanese in the title game last time, 10-6. Cuba has long been considered an international hotbed of baseball talent, and you can bet they’re looking to redeem themselves this year.

Last time Cuba hit well (.283 team ave., 44 runs) but had a hard time keeping the ball in the park (gave up WBC-high seven HR, team 4.13 ERA). But that all means little as the Cuban roster looks like it has completely turned itself over with all new players and faces.

Mexico will be the team in this pool that most American’s will root for, as they have a bunch of recognizable names back. Plus, I’m sure there are very few that will remember it was the Mexicans that knocked the U.S. out of the WBC last time. Mexico should have plenty of pitching with Oliver Perez, Rodrigo Lopez and Jorge Campillo as starters and Joakim Soria as the closer out of the bullpen. Their offense, led by 1B Adrian Gonzales and 3B Jorge Cantu, should be competitive as well.

Australia and South Africa both lack the depth of talent to compete with Mexico and Cuba in this pool.

Prediction: Mexico – I’m taking the 2-to-1 Mexican team to get past Cuba in Pool B here. Cuba no doubt has talent, but I’ll take the PROVEN back-end of the bullpen and Soria in a close game.

Pool C – Rogers Center, Toronto, Canada
United States vs. Canada, 2 PM EST, Saturday, March 7th
Italy vs. Venezuela, 8 PM EST, Saturday, March 7th

Odds to win the Pool:

United States : -8-to-1
Venezuela : 4-to-1
Canada : 12-to-1
Italy : 40-to-1

This pool shapes up to be a good one, as Italy is really the only team without a realistic chance at winning it.

The U.S. is stacked top-to-bottom with big leaguers, but so is Venezuela and Canada, so this pool will come down to starting pitching.

The U.S. will need starters Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Ted Lilly and Jeremy Guthrie to keep the Americans in the lead early, as the U.S. bullpen (Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, Brad Ziegler, J.J. Putz, Scot Shields) is superior to the others in the pool.

Venezuela can trot out starters Carlos Zambrano, Felix Hernandez, Armando Galarraga and Carlos Silva, but besides closer Francisco Rodriguez, the rest of the Venezuela bullpen is somewhat suspect.

Canada will have a formidable lineup featuring Russell Martin, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto and Jason Bay, but if they hope to hang they will need their pitching to perform above and beyond expectations.

Prediction: Venezuela – I still think the U.S. comes out of pool play with the Venezuelans, but they’ll come out with one loss. I like the Venezuelan starting pitchers so much more than the U.S. team, and K-Rod out in the pen makes me wonder why their odds are just 4-to-1.

Pool D – Hiram Bithorn Stadium, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Netherlands vs. Dominican Republic, 11 AM EST, Saturday, March 7th
Panama vs. Puerto Rico, 5 PM EST, Saturday, March 7th

Odds to win the Pool:

Dominican Republic : -4-to-1
Puerto Rico : 2.5-to-1
Panama : 10-to-1
Netherlands : 40-to-1

This is another deep pool, with major-league talent all over the roster of the top three teams.

The Dominican Republic is not only the favorite for the pool, but also the favorite to win it all as well. The Dominican’s are loaded on the mound (Johnny Cueto, Ubaldo Jimenez, Odalis Perez, Edison Volquez, Pedro Martinez, Juan Cruz, Jose Arrendondo, Carlos Marmol) and at the plate (David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Hanley Ramirez) so they are worthy of the hype.

Puerto Rico will be more than able to give the Dominicans a game, as they too have a roster full of big leaguers. Their pitching (Ian Snell, Javier Vazquez, Jonathan Sanchez) is not as deep, which could make the difference. With Carlos Beltran, Alex Rios, Geovany Soto, Carlos Delgado and Pudge Rodriguez they will certainly have enough at the dish.

Panama is a solid team, but they have nowhere near the depth of talent of the other two studs in this pool.

The Netherlands have a few serviceable major leaguers to fall back on (Rick VandenHurk, Sidney Ponson), but there’s a large talent gap between them and the rest of the pool.

Prediction: Dominican Republic – I’m not going to lay the gigantic -4-to-1 odds, but it’s hard not to like the DR in this pool. There’s not a single player on the team that hasn’t spent at least a cup of coffee in the bigs. Plus, more often than not these types of tournaments are won with pitching, and the DR has enough pitching to last them the whole tourney and then some.

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