2009 World Series Futures - Betting Odds

2009 World Series Futures
by Badger of Predictem.com

The 2009 World Series Champions Will Be …

A closer look at World Series Future Odds in 2009

Now that you’ve read Predictem.com’s division-by-division season preview and formed your own opinion on which teams will win their respective divisions and qualify for the postseason, let’s take it to the final step and take a closer look at the futures odds for the 2009 World Series.

In this article we’ll list the teams and their respective odds to win it all, then we’ll offer some picks and futures betting strategies at the end. There won’t be a lot of depth of analysis since we’ve already broken them down backwards and forwards in their team previews and the division-by-division preview.

All of the future odds listed in this article can be wagered on at www.Sportsbook.com.

THE FAVORITES

New York Yankees : 2.8-to-1
Boston Red Sox : 7-to-1
Chicago Cubs : 7-to-1
New York Mets : 8-to-1
Philadelphia Phillies : 10-to-1
Tampa Bay Rays : 10-to-1

I’m not sure if it’s an enviable position or not, but the Yankees go into the 2009 season as the top favorite on the board. All six of these teams played in the postseason last year, but I do find it ironic that the two teams that played in the Fall Classic last season, the Phillies and Rays, are the two 10-to-1 “longshots” out of the top tier of contenders. But that’s speaks more about the difficulties of repeating as champs in any sport, and less about what the oddsmakers really think about the teams.

It’s no secret that all of these teams are loaded with enough talent, both pitching and hitting. It’s just a matter of staying healthy and putting it all together over the course of a 162-game grind.

THE TIER OF CONTENDERS

Los Angeles Angels : 12-to-1
Cleveland Indians : 15-to-1
Atlanta Braves : 20-to-1
Arizona Diamondbacks : 25-to-1
Chicago White Sox : 25-to-1
Los Angeles Dodgers : 25-to-1
Minnesota Twins : 25-to-1

This second tier of teams offers some interesting odds for some interesting teams. Ideally, this is the tier where you want the winner to come from because of the better odds, but most of these teams have issues that are keeping them from being in the above list of favorites.

The Angels have a hard time getting past the AL East teams in the playoffs. The Indians might not have enough pitching. Ditto for the White Sox. The Braves, not enough hitting. And the Dodgers’ odds should drop a few points with everyday that Manny Ramirez and his agent Scott Boras refuse to play for such a meager pittance of $25 million.

LET’S TALK LONGSHOTS

Detroit Tigers : 30-to-1
Oakland A’s : 30-to-1
Cincinnati Reds : 40-to-1
Florida Marlins : 40-to-1
Milwaukee Brewers : 40-to-1
San Francisco Giants : 40-to-1
St. Louis Cardinals : 40-to-1

Technically these teams are not the biggest long shots of the bunch, but I’m not going to waste your time or mine analyzing the Pirates, Nationals, Padres, Royals or Orioles and their 100-to-1 shot which will never come. Go buy a scratch off, or a lottery ticket instead of wasting money on those dogs.

However, this tier does include teams that still have an actual shot, if all of the moons and stars align correctly and the ball bounces their way more than not. Let’s not forget that last year’s AL champs, Tampa Bay, came from this list last year (at 50-to-1) and nearly pulled it off.

FINAL ANALYSIS & PREDICTIONS

As always, when betting World Series futures the best practice is to diversify your bets with a few different levels of action. You want to put most of the loot on a solid, short-odds favorite, then dabble some action down to the middle and longshot tier to try and turn it into a windfall.

Here are my picks for the 2009 season based on the above World Series futures odds.

SHORT FAVORITE – Boston Red Sox – Believe me, I HATE having to take anything Boston or Yankees. But at solid 7-to-1 odds, I almost have to advocate taking the Sox here. In my mind, they have the least amount of warts out of any of the other top contenders. The Yankees will have issues with their outfield before the season is over. The Cubs will have outfield problems too, although I’m convinced that trading away Mark DeRosa will end up haunting them in the end. The Mets are choke-artists. The Phillies will have a hard time repeating, and the Rays won’t have the luxury of sneaking up on teams this year. You almost have to take the Red Sox by default.

MIDDLE OF THE ROAD – Arizona Diamondbacks – If the D-Backs can find an answer to their question about who will be their closer, I really think they could be this year’s Tampa Bay Rays. They have solid starting pitching, along with a balance of speed and power in the lineup that makes them one of the best all-around teams in the National League. At 25-to-1, I’ll take a chance and hope they can beat the AL representative in the World Series in a long series.

LONGSHOT – St. Louis Cardinals – As a true 40-to-1 long shot, I’ll take the Cardinals here. The Cards season hinges on the health of pitcher Chris Carpenter. In his first few spring outings he’s looked the guy who won a Cy Young award, and he’s done it while remaining pain-free. If he can assume his position at the top of the rotation, the Cards will have enough pitching. A lineup with triple-crown threat Albert Pujols will always have a chance. Again, the Cards current closer by committee issue in the bullpen will have to perform beyond expectations, but that’s why they call it a longshot.

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